2008年4月天山北坡一次强寒潮天气成因分析

利用T213 0场预报资料对2008年4月18日新疆天山北坡带中部石河子垦区发生的50 a不遇强寒潮天气过程的环流背景、影响系统及物理量场进行了综合分析。结果表明：“2008.04.18”强寒潮天气主要成因是：里黑海脊发展东移与东欧脊同位相叠加并顺转, 脊前东北风带建立并加强,诱导泰米尔半岛冷空气沿脊前东北气流西南下到横槽中, 迫使横槽转向强烈发展东南压,并形成高空急流,强锋区和强冷高压;由于高压脊部分东南垮,导致中高纬度强冷空气大举东南下,造成强寒潮天气过程;西南急流与冷空气的交汇产生了较强的动力辐合和水汽辐合,对大暴雪的形成起到了重要作用;大暴雪发生在较强的能量锋区、高湿区和水汽通量辐合区内。     

Association of metals with plastic production pellets in the marine environment

Plastic production pellets sampled from four beaches along a stretch of coastline (south Devon, SW England) and accompanying, loosely adhered and entrapped material removed ultrasonically have been analysed for major metals (Al, Fe, Mn) and trace metals (Cu, Zn, Pb, Ag, Cd, Co, Cr, Mo, Sb, Sn, U) following acid digestion. In most cases, metal concentrations in composite pellet samples from each site were less than but within an order of magnitude of corresponding concentrations in the pooled extraneous materials. However, normalisation of data with respect to Al revealed enrichment of Cd and Pb in plastic pellets at two sites. These observations are not wholly due to the association of pellets with fine material that is resistant to ultrasonication since new polyethylene pellets suspended in a harbour for 8 weeks accumulated metals from sea water through adsorption and precipitation. The environmental implications and potential applications of these findings are discussed.     

上海外资生产空间演变及影响因素

利用2004 年经济普查数据对上海制造业外资企业的空间分布、区位选择及其空间效应进行了研究。空间分布结果表明,20 世纪90 年代以来,上海外资企业在分布上表现出明显的郊区化和向近郊区局部地区(尤其是园区和新城) 集聚的特征,并形成了沪西南、浦东和沪西北3 大集聚区;制造业外资企业的分散和集聚推动了上海外资生产空间的郊区化重组。对制造业外资企业区位选择影响因素的分析显示：上海制造业外资企业区位选择是经济全球化与地方政府互动的过程;具体来说,传统区位因素作用在逐渐减弱,制度因素和集聚因素的作用在不断增强;制度因素内部产业优惠政策对外资的吸引力强于空间优惠政策,而国家级园区优惠政策对制造业外资企业(尤其是高技术外资企业) 的吸引力则强于市级园区,上述研究对上海未来的产业及外资引进政策都具有重要的参考意义。     

华北平原蒸散和GPP格局及其对气候波动的响应

华北平原水资源不足影响农业和经济的可持续发展,威胁国家的粮食安全。有效地预测区域的蒸散量和用水效率是合理配置农业和生态用水的前提。本文发展了一个基于遥感植被指数的蒸散和植被生产力模型,利用MODIS遥感信息模拟了华北平原2000-2009 年的蒸散和第一性生产力(GPP)。结果表明,年和生长季累积蒸散和GPP的分布具有纬度地带性,冬小麦季则更为明显。水分盈亏分析表明,降水显著低于蒸散的地区主要分布在黄河流域以北,南部地区降水有盈余。年尺度上,黄河以北地区水分亏缺0~300 mm;在小麦生长发育期,几乎全区水分亏缺0~400 mm;在玉米生长发育期,黄河以北地区水分亏缺0~100 mm。此外,蒸散和GPP的年际变化明显,既受气候波动的影响,也受植被的动态响应调节。     

Simulation on the dynamics of forest area changes in Northeast China

There is plenty of forests in Northeast China which contributes a lot to the conservation of water and land resources, produces timber products, and provides habitats for a huge number of wild animals and plants. With changes of socio-economic factors as well as the geophysical conditions, there are dramatic changes on the spatial patterns of forest area. In this sense, it is of great significance to shed light on the dynamics of forest area changes to find the underlining reasons for shaping the changing patterns of forest area in Northeast China. To explore the dynamics of forest area change in Northeast China, an econometric model is developed which is composed of three equations identifying forestry production, conversion from open forest to closed forest and conversion from other land uses to closed forest so as to explore the impacts on the forest area changes from demographic, social, economic, location and geophysical factors. On this basis, we employ the Dynamics of Land System (DLS) model to simulate land-use conversions between forest area and non-forest cover and the land-use conversions within the sub-classes of forest area for the period 2000–2020 under business as usual scenario, environmental protection scenario and economic growth scenario. The simulation results show that forest area will expand continuously and there exist various kinds of changing patterns for the sub-classes of forest area, for example, closed forest will expand continuously and open forest and shrub will decrease a little bit, while area of other forest will keep intact. The research results provide meaningful decision-making information for conserving and exploiting the forest resources and making out the planning for forestry production in the Northeast China region.     

中国东北地区林地面积变化的动态模拟

There is plenty of forests in Northeast China which contributes a lot to the conservation of water and land resources, produces timber products, and provides habitats for a huge number of wild animals and plants. With changes of socio-economic factors as well as the geophysical conditions, there are dramatic changes on the spatial patterns of forest area. In this sense, it is of great significance to shed light on the dynamics of forest area changes to find the underlining reasons for shaping the changing patterns of forest area in Northeast China. To explore the dynamics of forest area change in Northeast China, an econometric model is developed which is composed of three equations identifying forestry production, conversion from open forest to closed forest and conversion from other land uses to closed forest so as to explore the impacts on the forest area changes from demographic, social, economic, location and geophysical factors. On this basis, we employ the Dynamics of Land System (DLS) model to simulate land-use conversions between forest area and non-forest cover and the land-use conversions within the sub-classes of forest area for the period 2000–2020 under business as usual scenario, environmental protection scenario and economic growth scenario. The simulation results show that forest area will expand continuously and there exist various kinds of changing patterns for the sub-classes of forest area, for example, closed forest will expand continuously and open forest and shrub will decrease a little bit, while area of other forest will keep intact. The research results provide meaningful decision-making information for conserving and exploiting the forest resources and making out the planning for forestry production in the Northeast China region.     

混合气体驱替煤层气技术的可行性研究

气体驱替煤层气技术是近年来发展起来的具有温室气体减排和提高煤层气采收率双赢效果的新兴技术,相关研究受到世界主要发达国家的广泛重视。对于温室气体减排的压力,发达国家的研究主要着眼于该技术在高渗透、不可采煤层中的应用,注入气体主要为CO2,目的是尽可能多地封存CO2,同时提高煤层气采收率。目前,国内在这方面的研究刚刚起步。国内煤层具有渗透率普遍较低、不开采煤层与要开采煤层难以界定的特点,注CO2气体驱替煤层气在这种煤层中的可行性值得商榷。针对国内煤层特点和煤矿瓦斯抽采率低的现状,建议采用富N2混合气体驱替煤层气技术,以提高煤层气产采收率。通过理论分析、数值模拟和现场试验研究分析了实施混合气体驱替煤层气技术的可行性。研究结果表明,混合气体驱替煤层气技术适用于国内低渗透、可开采煤层,可以提高煤层气采收率和单产量。     

哈萨克斯坦粮食价格形成机制分析

自2006年下半年以来,哈萨克斯坦同全球其他国家一样出现了粮食价格的持续上涨的现象,由食物价格上涨引发了消费物价指数的暴涨,引起了哈萨克斯坦国内的社会抢购粮食风潮和社会动荡。而哈萨克斯坦是世界第六大谷物出口国,第一大面粉出口国为什么会受到全球粮食危机的冲击,导致国内粮食价格快速且大幅度的上涨。本文通过对哈萨克斯坦粮食价格的波动指数的研究,表明了哈萨克斯坦粮食价格动具有特殊的规律性的显著特征,提出了哈萨克斯坦的粮食价格波动主要是受供求关系、自然灾害、国际市场传导、农业政策变化等因素影响。     

Bistable plant–soil dynamics and biogenic controls on the soil production function

Soil formation results from opposite processes of bedrock weathering and erosion, whose balance may be altered by natural events and human activities, resulting in reduced soil depth and function. The impacts of vegetation on soil production and erosion and the feedbacks between soil formation and vegetation growth are only beginning to be explored quantitatively. Since plants require suitable soil environments, disturbed soil states may support less vegetation, leading to a downward spiral of increased erosion and decline in ecosystem function. We explore these feedbacks with a minimal model of the soil–plant system described by two coupled nonlinear differential equations, which include key feedbacks, such as plant‐driven soil production and erosion inhibition. We show that sufficiently strong positive plant–soil feedback can lead to a ‘humped’ soil production function, a necessary condition for soil depth bistability when erosion is assumed to vary monotonically with vegetation biomass. In bistable plant–soil systems, the sustainable soil condition engineered by plants is only accessible above a threshold vegetation biomass and occurs in environments where the high potential rate of erosion exerts a strong control on soil production and erosion. Vegetation removal for agriculture reduces the stabilizing effect of vegetation and lowers the system resilience, thereby increasing the likelihood of transition to a degraded soil state. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.