A Bayesian network approach for predicting seismic liquefaction based on interpretive structural modeling

The Bayesian network (BN) is a type of graphical network based on probabilistic inference that has been gradually applied to assessment of seismic liquefaction potential. However, how to construct a robust BN remains underexplored in this field. This paper aims to present an efficient hybrid approach combining domain knowledge and data to construct a BN that facilitates the integration of multiple factors and the quantification of uncertainties within a network model to assess seismic liquefaction. Initially, only using given domain knowledge, a naive network model can be constructed using interpretive structural modeling. Thereafter, some effective information about the naive model is provided to construct a robust model using structural learning of BN from historic data. Finally, the returning predictive results and the predictive results are compared to other methods including non-probabilistic and probabilistic models for seismic liquefaction using the metrics of the overall accuracy, the area under the curve of receiver operating characteristic, prediction, recall and F₁ score. The methodology proposed in this paper achieved better performance, and we discussed the power and value of the proposed approach at the end of this paper, which suggest that BN is a good alternative tool for seismic liquefaction prediction.     

共散射点道集与角道集串级优化叠前偏移速度分析

推导了基于角度域共成像点道集的叠前深度偏移层析速度分析公式,提出一种共散射点（CSP）道集与角道集串级优化叠前偏移的速度分析方法。该方法通过基于CSP道集的叠前时间偏移速度分析获取初始速度,利用基于角度域共成像点道集（ADCIGs）的叠前深度偏移速度分析进行速度更新。实现步骤概括为：将叠前地震数据映射为CSP道集,利用CSP道集叠加速度谱拾取能量团获取均方根（RMS）速度场;通过Dix公式将RMS速度转换为层速度作为层析的初始输入速度,基于ADCIGs实现叠前深度偏移层析速度反演,最终得到高精度的叠前偏移速度场。断层模型和实际资料试算结果验证了该方法的正确性和有效性。     

基于小波变换和数学形态学的潮沟提取方法研究

潮沟是潮滩的主要地貌类型之一,潮沟信息的检测对湿地生态环境的监测和保护有着重要意义。本文以长江口九段沙下沙北部发育比较复杂的潮沟为研究对象,使用2016年1月26日Landsat8全色波段数据,采用了一种融合小波变换、最大类间方差法和数学形态学的方法对潮沟边缘信息进行了检测。小波变换中通过减小高层小波系数,达到弱化潮滩灰度变化的目的;通过增大低层小波系数,达到增强潮沟信息的目的;利用数学形态学和图像之间的几何(加减乘)运算,完成潮沟的提取;最后,分别在原始数据和检测结果相应的位置取样进行精度验证,样方潮沟面积一致性精度平均为92.1%。     

不规则波下船舶运动响应特征数值分析

针对不规则波浪作用下Wigley型船的运动响应问题进行了系统的研究,采用统计学方法深入探讨了船舶不规则运动幅值和响应周期的分布规律,并通过傅里叶变换对船舶运动响应进行了频谱特征分析。结果表明,船舶横摇方向与升沉和纵摇方向随机运动的响应特征有显著差异。在升沉与纵摇方向,波浪谱峰频率远离自振频率,前十分之一大振幅运动对应周期离散性较小,基本稳定在波浪谱峰周期附近,但小振幅运动周期分布离散性较大,频谱分析指出船舶升沉与纵摇运动响应频谱在波浪谱峰频率附近出现明显峰值。而在横摇方向,波浪谱峰频率与自振频率相耦合,不同振幅的横摇运动响应周期均稳定在自振周期附近,且周期离散性较小,频谱分析也表明横摇运动响应频谱主要集中于船舶运动自振频率附近。     

深水钢悬链立管疲劳寿命评估分析

在时域内分析深水钢悬链立管在平台运动和波流载荷共同作用下的非线性动力响应;采用雨流计数法处理立管节点应力的时间历程,选用DoE.E型S-N曲线分析立管在单一海况和平台运动联合作用下的疲劳损伤;将各方向含概率分布的疲劳损伤进行叠加,得到立管整体的全方向疲劳损伤及疲劳寿命。平台的运动为六自由度的运动预报数据,波流载荷由某海域实际的波浪统计数据采用Morison公式计算所得。计算结果表明钢悬链立管疲劳寿命的极值点分别位于悬挂点附近和触地点附近,对立管疲劳寿命极值点各方向疲劳损伤分布情况进行了分析。所提方法为钢悬链立管疲劳分析提供了新思路,给出的结论对钢悬链立管设计分析有一定借鉴意义。     

青藏高原东北缘特提斯构造域界线的探讨

东特提斯构造域北界的确定不仅可以约束构造域的范围及演化,而且对于约束中国各陆块的原始构造归属也有着非常重要的意义.本文将从地球化学角度对这一科学问题进行探讨.祁连造山带早古生代蛇绿岩单元内枕状玄武岩的元素、Sr-Nd-Pb同位素组成系统研究表明：其地幔源区的Nd和Pb同位素组成均表现出印度洋MORB型同位素组成特征;枕状玄武岩（△^207Pb/^204Pb）t变化范围为9.1～24.3（平均值为14.7）,（△^208/^204Pb）t变化范围为9.1～101.1（平均值55.3）;与古特提斯和新特提斯蛇绿岩具有一致的同位素组成.因此,祁连造山带古洋幔应属于原特提斯构造域.纵观中国境内的特提斯构造域蛇绿岩的分布特征可知：该构造域表现出自北而南变年轻的时空演化规律,从而说明中央造山带的动力学过程也应纳入冈瓦纳大陆裂解和亚洲增生的总动力学系统之中.     

变形体的稳定性及其定量分析方法初探

变形体的稳定性是变形体性质的重要内容，它是工程实际中极为关注的问题，但从变形监测的角度上来分析变形的稳定性目前在国内外还未见任何实质性的报导。本文讨论了从变形监测角度上分析变形体稳定性的一般方法，进行变形稳定性的分类，初步研究了变形体稳定性的定量分析方法，定义了一系列量化指标，如稳定度、因素的影响域与因素的稳定域等。这些有利于把稳定性分析推向应用和深入，从而提高变形监测在变形体定性分析中的地位，增     

喜马拉雅构造-成矿域及其成矿效应初步分析

通过近年来的研究 ,提出了全新的喜马拉雅构造 -成矿域概念。从大喜马拉雅构造域及其成矿效应出发 ,通过构造域对矿集区的控制作用、成矿时代、成矿物质来源、深部过程与成矿效应的分析 ,从而较全面地评价了青藏高原及邻区的资源潜力和需要进一步工作的重要成矿带或矿集区。通过分析认为喜马拉雅构造 -成矿域内强烈的壳幔物质交换 ,下地壳翻天覆地的物质和流体交换 ,导致了在同一构造地质单元内可以有一个或多个超大型矿床的存在。并对多个重要矿床类型提出了更切合实际的观点 ,如西藏甲马铜钼银铅锌金多金属矿床属于矽卡岩 -斑岩复合型 ,云南羊拉铜钼金多金属矿床也属于矽卡岩 -斑岩复合型矿床等。在喜马拉雅构造域内形成的燕山晚期或喜马拉雅期矿床大多和大陆地壳深部复杂的动力学过程有关 ,所形成的矿床矿物组合及成矿元素组合复杂 ,特别是矿石中钴、银元素含量较高 ,许多矿床中银、钴已经作为主要成矿元素。最后明确提出了青藏高原主体及东缘重要矿集区的资源潜力     

多源信息融合在维西-兰坪矿产勘查中的应用

运用遥感图像处理软件ERDAS中的图像增强方法,分析ETM+遥感数据,提取与金属矿化有关的异常信息,将化探异常图像和遥感信息叠加进行相关异常信息与成矿的关系研究,对本区找矿预测具有较好的指导作用。     

A study of transient variations in the Earth’s electromagnetic field at equatorial electrojet latitudes in western Africa (Mali and the Ivory Coast)

In the framework of the French-Ivorian participation to the IEEY, a network of 10 electromagnetic stations were installed at African longitudes. The aim of this experiment was twofold: firstly, to study the magnetic signature of the equatorial electrojet on the one hand, and secondly, to characterize the induced electric field variations on the other hand. The first results of the magnetic field investigations were presented by Doumouya and coworkers. Those of the electric field experiment will be discussed in this study. The electromagnetic experiment will be described. The analysis of the electromagnetic transient variations was conducted in accordance with the classical distinction between quiet and disturbed magnetic situations. A morphological analysis of the recordings is given, taking into consideration successively quiet and disturbed magnetic situations, with the results interpreted in terms of the characterization of external and internal sources. Particular attention was paid to the effects of the source characteristics on the induced field of internal origin, and to the bias they may consequently cause to the results of electromagnetic probing of the Earth; the source effect in electromagnetic induction studies. During quiet magnetic situations, our results demonstrated the existence of two different sources. One of these, the S_R^E source, was responsible for most of the magnetic diurnal variation and corresponded to the well-known magnetic signature of the equatorial electrojet. The other source (the S_R*^E source) was responsible for most of the electric diurnal variation, and was also likely to be an ionospheric source. Electric and magnetic diurnal variations are therefore related to different ionospheric sources, and interpreting the electric diurnal variation as induced by the magnetic field diurnal variation is not relevant. Furthermore, the magnetotelluric probing of the upper mantle at dip equator latitudes with the electromagnetic diurnal variation is consequently impossible to perform. In the case of irregular variations, the source effect related to the equatorial electrojet is also discussed. A Gaussian model of equatorial electrojet was considered, and apparent resistivities were computed for two models of stratified Earth corresponding to the average resistive structure of the two tectonic provinces crossed by the profile: a sedimentary basin and a cratonic shield. The apparent resistivity curves were found to depend significantly on both the model used and the distance to the center of the electrojet. These numerical results confirm the existence of a daytime source effect related to the equatorial electrojet. Furthermore, we show that the results account for the observed differences between daytime and night-time apparent resistivity curves. In particular, it was shown that electromagnetic probing of the Earth using the classical Cagniard-Tikhonov magnetotelluric method is impossible with daytime recordings made at dip latitude stations.