Structural geology practice and learning,from the perspective of cognitive science

Spatial ability is required by practitioners and students of structural geology and so, considering spatial skills in the context of cognitive science has the potential to improve structural geology teaching and practice. Spatial thinking skills may be organized using three dichotomies, which can be linked to structural geology practice. First, a distinction is made between separating (attending to part of a whole) and combining (linking together aspects of the whole). While everyone has a basic ability to separate and combine, experts attend to differences guided by experiences of rock properties in context. Second, a distinction is made between seeing the relations among multiple objects as separate items or the relations within a single object with multiple parts. Experts can flexibly consider relations among or between objects to optimally reason about different types of spatial problems. Third, a distinction is made between reasoning about stationary and moving objects. Experts recognize static configurations that encode a movement history, and create mental models of the processes that led to the static state. The observations and inferences made by a geologist leading a field trip are compared with the corresponding observations and inferences made by a cognitive psychologist interested in spatial learning. The presented framework provides a vocabulary for discussing spatial skills both within and between the fields of structural geology and cognitive psychology.     

隧道岩溶涌水专家评判系统在朱家岩隧道涌水预报中的应用

隧道岩溶涌水预测是个非常复杂的问题。直到目前,在我国铁路、公路、水工等的隧道施工中还经常发生由于岩溶涌水预测错误而引起施工安全问题的事例。预测之所以失误,主要是对隧道岩溶涌水机理缺乏全面认识,和没有一套科学实用的评判系统。本文以朱家岩隧道为例,运用隧道岩溶涌水专家评判系统对沪蓉西高速公路多条长隧道岩溶涌水进行预测评价及施工超前预报,获得了良好的效果。      

生油岩评价专家系统研究

生油岩评价专家系统(SREES)的建立是将有关地质学家的理论方法和经验知识进行系统总结,以先进的人工智能技术在计算机上实现,使生油评价分析工作达到专家水平,从而提高评价结果的置信度,更好地指导油气勘探工作。整个系统采用了自顶向下、面向目标的程序设计方法,使用C语言在Micro VAX机上实现,系统选择了民和盆地作为实验区,验证了系统的评价性能,在计算机系统支持下的陆相油气资源评价方法上作了一次偿试。     

铁路工程地质选线咨询系统

本文考虑了铁路线位选择的特点，从地质的角度出发，将铁路地质选线中涉及的主要问题（滑坡、泥石流、风沙、岩溶）归纳、总结建立知识库，通过推理为铁路总体选线提供地质依据，以减少工程失误，节约工程造价，保证工期。本文重点介绍该系统的组成部分及各个部分的具本设计思想和设计技巧。     

青海东昆仑成矿带综合选区研究

笔者通过改进先前提出的基于专家证据权重法的成矿远景区划与评价方法的不足之处,重新对青海东昆仑地区Au、Cu和Co3矿种进行成矿远景区划与评价,将各矿种的远景区按成矿潜力大小划分为A、B、C三级。在此基础上,提出了将多个单矿种远景区合成综合成矿远景区的评价方法和手段,最终圈定出青海东昆仑的综合远景区25个,并对它们也按成矿潜力大小划分为A、B、C三级。从青海东昆仑地区已知Au、Cu、Co矿床(点)在各综合远景区内的数量和规模分布情况来看,结果令人满意。青海东昆仑地区的综合选区研究成果可望为该区进一步找矿工作部署提供部分科学依据。     

Developing a geographic expert system for regional mapping of volcanogenic massive sulfide (VMS) deposit potential

A personal computer-based geographic information system (GIS) is used to develop a geographic expert system (GES) for mapping and evaluating volcanogenic massive sulfide (VMS) deposit potential. The GES consists of an inference network to represent expert knowledge, and a GIS to handle the spatial analysis and mapping. Evidence from input maps is propagated through the inference network, combining information by means of fuzzy logic and Bayesian updating to yield new maps showing evaluation of hypotheses. Maps of evidence and hypotheses are defined on a probability scale between 0 and 1. Evaluation of the final hypothesis results in a mineral potential map, and the various intermediate hypotheses can also be shown in map form.The inference net, with associated parameters for weighting evidence, is based on a VMS deposit model for the Chisel Lake deposit, a producing mine in the Early Protoerzoic Snow Lake greenstone belt of northwest Manitoba. The model is applied to a small area mapped at a scale of 1:15,840. The geological map, showing lithological and alteration units, provides the basic input to the model. Spatial proximity to contacts of various kinds are particularly important. Three types of evidence are considered: stratigraphic, heat source, and alteration. The final product is a map showing the relative favorability for VMS deposits. The model is implemented as aFortran program, interfaced with the GIS. The sensitivity of the model to changes in the parameters is evaluated by comparing predicted areas of elevated potential with the spatial distribution of known VMS occurrences.     

A geomorphological model of susceptibility to the effect of human interventions for environmental licensing determination (SHIELD)

Almost every country requires some form of environmental licensing prior to the inception of development projects that may affect the integrity of the environment and its social context. We developed a new conceptual and methodological model to instruct the assessment of the potential impacts posed by proposed projects. Susceptibility to Human Interventions for Environmental Licensing Determination (SHIELD) includes a novel geomorphological interpretation of the Environmental Impact Assessment (EIA). It considers the impact of human interventions on geomorphological processes and landscape functioning in the context of the entire ecosystem, going further than the classical concept of vulnerability. Estimated susceptibility of the site informs the screening stage, allowing local conditions to help define the criteria used in the process. Similarly, the level of detail of the environmental baseline is scoped by considering the degree of disturbance of natural processes posed by human intervention. Testing this geomorphological susceptibility model on different kinds of environments would allow shifting the environmental licensing practices from the prevailing anthropocentric and static conception of the environment towards an Ecosystem Approach. SHIELD addresses the need to improve the screening and scoping stages that form the basis of the rest of any EIA. SHIELD introduces several innovations to EIA including the incorporation of fuzzy logic, a preassembled database of contributions form experts, and a shifting of emphasis from the type of proposed intervention to the type of environment and its relative susceptibility.     

What are the major global threats and impacts in marine environments? Investigating the contours of a shared perception among marine scientists from the bottom-up.

Marine scientists broadly agree on which major processes influence the sustainability of marine environments worldwide. Recent studies argue that such shared perceptions crucially shape scientific agendas and are subject to a confirmation bias. Based on these findings a more explicit engagement with scientists’ (shared) perceptions of global change in marine environments is called for. This paper takes stock of the shared understanding in marine science of the most pertinent, worldwide threats and impacts that currently affect marine environments. Using results from an email survey among leading academics in marine science this article explores if a shared research agenda in relation to global change in marine environments exists. The analysis demonstrates that marine scientists across disciplines are largely in agreement on some common features of global marine change. Nevertheless, the analysis also highlights where natural and social scientists diverge in their assessment. The article ends discussing what these findings imply for further improvement of interdisciplinary marine science.     

新一代地震预报专家系统NGESEP预报效能的初步研究

利用４０个地震震例对新一代地震预报专家系统ＮＧＥＳＥＰ的预报效果进行了检验。比较了使用信度分布图和信度等值线图两种方法未来发震地点的效能，分析了系统对地震三要素的预报结果，表明该系统具有较高的预报效能。     

现场或震后趋势预测中的几个不精确推理问题

在地震预报的实践中经常会遇到下面的情况,即如何估计在经过了一定的预报时间后尚未发生预期地震的条件下在余下的预报时间段内发生预期地震的信度问题。文中结合地震发生是个小概率事件这一特点,运用MYCIN模型推得了估计这一信度的实用公式,同时还对所遇到的其它几个不精确推理问题进行了论述。