Bayesian analysis of De distributions in optical dating: Towards a robust method for dealing with outliers

In optical dating, especially single-grain dating, various patterns of distributions in equivalent dose (D_e) are usually observed and analysed using different statistical models. None of these methods, however, is designed to deal with outliers that do not form part of the population of grains associated with the event of interest (the ‘target population’), despite outliers being commonly present in single-grain D_e distributions. In this paper, we present a Bayesian method for detecting D_e outliers and making allowance for them when estimating the D_e value of the target population. We test this so-called Bayesian outlier model (BOM) using data sets obtained for individual grains of quartz from sediments deposited in a variety of settings, and in simulations. We find that the BOM is suitable for single-grain D_e distributions containing outliers that, for a variety of reasons, do not form part of the target population. For example, D_e outliers may be associated with grains that have undesirable luminescence properties (e.g., thermal instability, high rates of anomalous fading) or with contaminant grains incorporated into a sample when collected in the field or prepared in the laboratory. Grains that have much larger or smaller D_e values than the target population, due to factors such as insufficient bleaching, beta-dose heterogeneity or post-depositional disturbance, may also be identified as outliers using the BOM, enabling these values to be weighted appropriately for final D_e and age determination.     

登陆台风变性过程的物理机制分析

0509号台风“Matsa”和0712号台风“Wipha”,均在中国大陆发生变性成为温带气旋。但前者变性后再度加强,后者变性后减弱消亡。用日本JRA25再分析资料,对其变性过程对比分析。表明：“Matsa”和“Wipha”均是在登陆后北上与中高纬西风槽相互作用的过程中,受到冷空气入侵后变性,从垂直对称分布演变为倾斜的非对称分布,且在北上过程中与中纬度高空锋区作用,但“Matsa”中心嵌入中纬度高空锋区,有再加强过程;而“Wipha”仅外围环流与锋区接触,中心未进入锋区,无再加强过程。通过对大气稳定度和垂直螺旋度等进一步分析表明：“Matsa”变性过程是系统性冷空气的南侵,而Wipha的变性只有弱冷空气的入侵;台风中心所在的垂直涡度ζ_p的增长大值区是否落在△θ_e<0的大气对流性不稳定的区域内,对台风变性后是否再加强有一定影响。此外,垂直螺旋度的高低空配置及正涡度柱与上升运动的相互配合是使台风变性加强的重要因素。     

Determining the equivalent permeability tensor for fractured rock masses using a stochastic REV approach: Method and application to the field data from Sellafield,UK

A numerical procedure to determine the equivalent permeability tensor of a fractured rock is presented, using a stochastic REV (Representative Elementary Volume) concept that uses multiple realizations of stochastic DFN (Discrete Fracture Network) models. Ten square DFN models are generated using the Monte Carlo simulations of the fracture system based on the data obtained from a site characterization program at Sellafield, Cumbria, UK. Smaller models with varying sizes of from 0.25 m×0.25 m to 10 m×10 m are extracted from the generated DFN models and are used as two-dimensional geometrical models for calculation of equivalent permeability tensor. The DFN models are also rotated in 30º intervals to evaluate the tensor characteristics of calculated directional permeability. Results show that the variance of the calculated permeability values decreases significantly as the side lengths of the DFN models increase, which justifies the existence of a REV. The REV side length found in this analysis is about 5 m and 8 m with 20% and 10% acceptable variations, respectively. The calculated directional permeability values at the REV size have tensor characteristic that is confirmed by a close approximation of an ellipse in a polar plot of the reciprocal of square roots of the directional permeability.

OSL测年中CGC法求D_e均值的计算方法之比较分析

光释光测年中等效剂量是计算样品埋藏年龄的一个重要参数,一般通过求多个实验测量值的均值得出。标准生长曲线法是求等效剂量的一种常用且有效的方法,分析讨论了此法计算的等效剂量存在小幅度的系统性的偏大及其原因,提出了改进的方法;展望了CGC法求De均值更优的估计——极大似然估计。     

气象短信编写技巧调研与研究

通过对气象短信编写技巧调研与研究,探讨了如何编写好气象短信,使其既抓住社会公众关注的热点天气问题,还要富有文采、贴近生活、具有新闻性。     

红外焦平面探测器信息获取与预处理电路设计

针对中国科学院上海技术物理研究所研制的1500元红外线列焦平面探测器的输出特性,提出了以低噪声运放为核心的信息获取电路和以FPGA(Field Programmable Gate Array)为核心的数据预处理的设计方案,实现了驱动电路和探测器的良好匹配,较好地发挥了探测器高灵敏度的特性.测试结果表明,该方案不仅对系统获得优于50 mK噪声等效温差的高灵敏度成像起到了重要作用,足够宽的量化设计还保证了系统的动态范围和图像的丰富层次.该设计方案已成功应用在一些其他类型的红外焦平面探测器中.     

Short-Term Periodicities in Sunspot Activity and Flare Index Data during Solar Cycle 23

The short-term periodicities in sunspot numbers, sunspot areas, and flare index data are investigated in detail using the Date Compensated Discrete Fourier Transform (DCDFT) for the full disk of the Sun separately over the rising, the maximum, and the declining portions of solar cycle 23 (1996 – 2006). While sunspot numbers and areas show several significant periodicities in a wide range between 23.1 and 36.4 days, the flare index data do not exhibit any significant periodicity. The earlier conclusion of Pap, Tobiska, and Bouwer (1990, Solar Phys. 129, 165) and Kane (2003, J. Atmos. Solar-Terr. Phys. 65, 1169), that the 27-day periodicity is more pronounced in the declining portion of a solar cycle than in the rising and maximum ones, seems to be true for sunspot numbers and sunspot area data analyzed here during solar cycle 23.     

2013年芦山Ms7.0地震前重力场源变化分析

陆地重力观测获取的时变重力信号是研究地壳内部孕震区介质变化的重要依据。利用贝叶斯平差方法处理了川西地区2010—2012年的流动重力观测资料,发现相对重力仪的格值系数在两年内变化可达2×10^-4,而且仪器存在较小的非线性漂移率;重力场累积动态变化图像显示,2013年芦山MS7.0地震发生在重力梯度带零值线与龙门山断裂带交会部位附近。进一步采用等效源方法划定了测网内以雅安、康定和石棉为中心的场源分辨能力较高的区域,并反演了地震前的地壳视密度变化。场源视密度动态变化结果表明:2013年芦山MS7.0地震前2年,在龙门山断裂带的南侧和鲜水河断裂南段的东侧区域形成了范围较大的等效视密度增加区,而在小金至康定一带和都江堰周边地区也存在小规模的视密度增加。本文基于陆地时变重力测量结果反演得到芦山地震前的地壳内部等效视密度变化,可为研究壳内深部孕震环境变化特征提供参考。     

关于业务上应用条件对称不稳定相关问题的讨论

条件对称不稳定（CSI）理论常常被用来作为倾斜对流的发展机制之一,在业务上常用来解释与锋面相联系的一条或多条中尺度雨带、雷达图像上观测到的带状雨带的成因等。条件对称不稳定的诊断包括CSI斜率判据、斜升对流有效位能（SCAPE）、湿对称不稳定（MSI）、相当位涡（EPV）等判据。业务预报人员存疑较多的问题是这些方法是否具有一致性并在业务上如何使用。针对上述问题,首先通过与业务预报人员较熟悉的条件不稳定类型作类比,来说明条件对称不稳定两种判据与条件不稳定两种判据的相似性。但在业务使用上,判别条件对称不稳定时多使用CSI斜率判据,即等动量面的坡度大于等位温面坡度而小于等湿球位温面坡度。由于条件对称不稳定通常出现在大气处于几乎饱和的情况下,此时的CSI斜率判据则演变为湿对称不稳定判据,即等动量面坡度小于等湿球位温面坡度。为判别相当位涡与湿对称不稳定判据是否具有一致性,文中的推导和实例分析均表明,二维相当位涡实际上是湿对称不稳定判据的另一种表现形式,但是湿对称不稳定判据需主观去比较等相当位温面与等动量面斜率大小,而二维相当位涡则可通过其是否小于0进行客观判断。需注意的是,在与推导条件对称不稳定斜率判据相同的二维坐标下,相当位涡与湿对称不稳定判据才具有一致性,将相当位涡扩展到常规坐标下使用三维相当位涡作为湿对称不稳定判据是不可取的。      

条件区域云概率分布模型

本文在引入区域相关场和正态化转换技术的基础之上,通过MonteCarlo模拟建立了条件区域概率分布模型,较好地解决了单点概率和区域分布概率之间的关系,并通过大量计算,得到了条件区域概率分布模型的拟合函数,从而使区域范围内的概率天气预报成为可能。特别是为战时气象信息封锁条件下,进行区域范围内的概率天气预报提供了新的思路。