条件区域云概率分布模型

本文在引入区域相关场和正态化转换技术的基础之上,通过MonteCarlo模拟建立了条件区域概率分布模型,较好地解决了单点概率和区域分布概率之间的关系,并通过大量计算,得到了条件区域概率分布模型的拟合函数,从而使区域范围内的概率天气预报成为可能。特别是为战时气象信息封锁条件下,进行区域范围内的概率天气预报提供了新的思路。     

北京平原地区VS30估算模型适用性研究

本文使用基于钻孔测井数据的3类模型,即常速度外推模型、速度梯度模型、双深度参数外推模型,通过对北京地区460个深度超过30m的钻孔剪切波速资料进行分析,详细探究了V_S30估算模型在本研究区的适用性。研究结果表明双深度参数外推模型在估算V_S30上准确度很高,其不需要大量的数据进行回归分析,且不具有区域独立性,可以为全球包括北京地区场地类别划分提供依据,进而在震害快速评估中用于确定场地影响,是一种值得推广的估算模型。     

计算机辅助绘制流域等流时线

采用地理信息系统方法，对流域的地形地貌特征进行分析，模拟水质点在流域上的运动轨迹，并根据水质点汇流时间与汇流路径，坡度，坡长的关系，建立了流域汇流等流时线模型，经实例验证，效果较好。     

Robust biased estimation and its applications in geodetic adjustments

In this paper, a number of robust biased estimators (e.g. ordinary robust ridge estimator, robust principal components estimator, robust combined principal components estimator, robust single-parametric principal components estimator, robust root-root estimator) are established by means of a unified expression of biased estimators and based on the principle of equivalent weight. The most attractive advantage of these new estimators is that they can not only overcome the ill-conditioning of the normal equation but also have the ability to resist outliers. A numerical example is used to illustrate that these new estimators are much better than the least-squares estimator and various biased estimators even when both ill-conditioning and outliers exist. Received: 14 November 1995/Accepted: 11 February 1998     

基于倒置声学基阵的INSUSBL组合导航算法研究

文中关注水下潜航器导航定位时,电磁波传播途径中能量衰减、惯导系统长航时积累误差以及提高水下潜航器定位精度等问题。基于倒置的超短基线声学基阵,分析声波往返传播时间(RTT)、平面波近似方法和USBL导航解算方法及其坐标转换过程,结合INS误差方程,建立INS/USBL松组合模型。为进一步提高系统精度、动态性能和抗干扰性,考察USBL的原始斜距、斜距差以及声学基阵的空间分布信息,提出基于USBL原始输出信息的INS/USBL紧耦合组合导航方法。通过MATLAB仿真对导航算法进行验证,结果表明两种算法能充分抑制纯惯导误差随时间积累问题,且有效地估计出姿态、速度和位置误差角;其中紧耦合方法状态估计误差最小,导航参数精度相对松组合提高30%以上,对于提高水下载体导航定位精度、海洋探测具有重大意义。     

Two-dimensional physical-based inversion of confined and unconfined aquifers under unknown boundary conditions

An inverse method is developed to simultaneously estimate multiple hydraulic conductivities, source/sink strengths, and boundary conditions, for two-dimensional confined and unconfined aquifers under non-pumping or pumping conditions. The method incorporates noisy observed data (hydraulic heads, groundwater fluxes, or well rates) at measurement locations. With a set of hybrid formulations, given sufficient measurement data, the method yields well-posed systems of equations that can be solved efficiently via nonlinear optimization. The solution is stable when measurement errors are increased. The method is successfully tested on problems with regular and irregular geometries, different heterogeneity patterns and variances (maximum K_max/K_min tested is 10,000), and error magnitudes. Under non-pumping conditions, when error-free observed data are used, the estimated conductivities and recharge rates are accurate within 8% of the true values. When data contain increasing errors, the estimated parameters become less accurate, as expected. For problems where the underlying parameter variation is unknown, equivalent conductivities and average recharge rates can be estimated. Under pumping (and/or injection) conditions, a hybrid formulation is developed to address these local source/sink effects, while different types of boundary conditions can also exert significant influences on drawdowns. Local grid refinement near wells is not needed to obtain accurate results, thus inversion is successful with coarse inverse grids, leading to high computation efficiency. Furthermore, flux measurements are not needed for the inversion to succeed; data requirement of the method is thus not much different from that of interpreting classic well tests. Finally, inversion accuracy is not sensitive to the degree of nonlinearity of the flow equations. Performance of the inverse method for confined and unconfined aquifer problems is similar in terms of the accuracy of the estimated parameters, the recovered head fields, and the solver speed.     

Optical Dating Equivalent Dose (De) Comparison of Global Standardised Growth Curve (gSGC) and Single-aliquot Regenerative-dose (SAR) Methods for Quartz Grains

Optical dating is a method of measuring the time since the sample was buried from last thermal event or light exposure. Samples such as quartz and feldspar grains are the most commonly used sediment of measurement. Single-Aliquot Regenerative-dose (SAR) method has become the most acceptable procedure for obtaining the equivalent Dose (D_e) of a sample. The Standardised Growth Curve (SGC) method provides a possible procedure for measuring a large number of samples; the limitation is that the growth curve fitted by different samples or even different aliquots is divergent. The global Standardised Growth Curve (gSGC) method improves the shortage by normalizing the dose response curves using one regenerative dose OSL signal. The gSGC provides a possible method for obtaining the D_e value of the sample efficiently and quickly. However, due to the radiation dose rate, operating procedures and instrument error and the selected regenerative-dose normalized dose value, etc., each laboratory should develop their own gSGC which has unique parameters. This study established the gSGC curve and measurement process of our laboratory, and then compared the consistency of the equivalent Dose (D_e) values from gSGC and SAR methods. In gSGC procedure, the D_e value of an aliquot can be estimated from the nature signal, one regenerative dose signal and their corresponding test dose signal. It will speed up the optical dating measurement rate of our laboratory and provide reference to establish gSGC in other laboratories. It is found that in the low dose range (0~100 Gy) the obtained D_e values were well consistent by gSGC and SAR methods. There were obviously differences in the higher dose range (>100 Gy) compared to the SAR results. It may be due to the insufficient number of older samples used to fit gSGC in this study. It is necessary to gradually accumulate more samples to improve the gSGC parameters in the future work. For some aliquots, individual quartz grains do not follow the global standardised growth curve, which leads to some deviations of D_e from gSGC. However, these two methods could obtain the similar average De value when multiple aliquots measuring.     

Nonlinear 3D finite element analysis of soil–pile–structure interaction system subjected to horizontal earthquake excitation

The dynamic response of a seismic soil–pile–structure interaction (SSPSI) system is investigated in this paper by conducting nonlinear 3D finite element numerical simulations. Nonlinear behaviors such as non-reflecting boundary condition and soil–pile–structure interaction modeled by the penalty method have been taken into account. An equivalent linear model developed from the ground response analysis and the modified Drucker–Prager model are separately used for soil ground. A comparison of the two models shows that the equivalent linear soil model results in an underestimated acceleration response of the structure under this ground shaking and the soil behavior should be considered as a fully-nonlinear constitutive model in the design process of the SSPSI system. It was also observed that the dynamic response of the system is greatly affected by the nonlinearity of soil–pile interface and is not sensitive to the dilation angle of the soil. Furthermore, the effect of the presence of pile foundations on SSPSI response is also analyzed and discussed.     

Modified fish-bone model: A simplified MDOF model for simulation of seismic responses of moment resisting frames

This paper presents a simplified Multi-Degree-Of-Freedom (MDOF) model through modification of fish-bone model (or generic frame). Modified Fish-Bone (MFB) model is developed through three enhancements: (i) the moment of inertia for half-beams is reduced slightly to modify the assumption of equal rotation at each story joints, (ii) a number of truss elements are inserted to the fish-bone model to simulate flexural deformation of moment frames due to axial elongation and contraction of columns, and (iii) moment–rotation relationship of representative rotational springs is supposed to be bilinear instead of trilinear in order to consider simultaneous yielding at both ends of the beam in moment frames. The proposed model is evaluated with respect to nonlinear dynamic analysis results of three classic moment resisting frames subjected to 94 records of FEMA-440 ground motion data set. Moreover, the adequacy of this model is compared with the fish-bone model and two predictors of nonlinear seismic demand. The statistical study of predicted interstory drift demonstrates the superiority of the proposed model over the fish-bone model and both seismic demand predictors.