印尼8.7级地震前银川台形变数字化观测资料短临异常特征分析

采用形变观测资料分析方法中比较常用的形态法、差分法、消除潮汐改正和零漂法，处理了银川台形变数字化观测资料，发现在印尼8．7级地震前出现了一些短临异常情况，并对异常的变化特征做了相应的分析。     

震源耦合的等效物理模型

本文提出了考虑各潜在震源相互耦合的等效物理模型，系统地建立了通过拟合各潜在震源地震序列来确定不同时间段内活断层形速率的方法，给出了预报各潜在震源未来一定年限内发生震级在不同震级段的概率模型。     

复杂地质条件下气层的多参数识别

在复杂地质条件下,应用单一或两种孔隙测井资料直接识别气层,灵敏度不高,为了准确地识别复杂地质条件下的气层,需从不同角度,应用多参数进行综合识别,本文介绍了声波法,中子－密度法,双孔隙度法,中子－伽玛法,等效弹性模量法等,并应用它们对哈盆地两口井进行了重点分析,效果良好。     

短期暴雨的前期特征和预报实践

打破季节和月份的限制，将所有的暴雨作为研究对象，运用自组织理论总结归纳出一套自成体系的统一的关于短期暴雨预报的前期环流特征和判据。在预报业务上，作者成功地建立三个精确到点的高质量的短期暴雨预报方法。     

Numerical simulation of groundwater flowing to horizontal seepage wells under a river

A horizontal seepage well, consisting of an interconnected vertical well, galleries, chambers and small-diameter radiating bores, is used to acquire relatively clean water that has been filtered through natural alluvial deposits in a riverbed. It has wide application, especially in arid and semi-arid areas. The lack of calculation formulae or models for horizontal seepage wells, up until now, has resulted in several false applications. Based on the analysis of groundwater flow characteristics, it has been concluded that several flow regimes coexist and hydraulic head loss exists in the horizontal seepage well. To avoid the difficulty of confirming the flux or head distribution in such a complex system, the model boundary of the whole horizontal seepage well has been moved to that of just the vertical well, and the well-aquifer system was treated as a heterogeneous medium, where the horizontal seepage well itself is a highly permeability medium. A mathematical model has been developed, based on the coupled seepage-pipe flow, by the introduction of equivalent hydraulic conductivity according to different flow regimes. Then a three-dimensional finite difference numerical model, based on the mathematical model, was developed and applied to a horizontal seepage well in China. The numerical model verified the groundwater flow characteristics of the horizontal seepage well. An erratum to this article can be found at     

Bayesian analysis of De distributions in optical dating: Towards a robust method for dealing with outliers

In optical dating, especially single-grain dating, various patterns of distributions in equivalent dose (D_e) are usually observed and analysed using different statistical models. None of these methods, however, is designed to deal with outliers that do not form part of the population of grains associated with the event of interest (the ‘target population’), despite outliers being commonly present in single-grain D_e distributions. In this paper, we present a Bayesian method for detecting D_e outliers and making allowance for them when estimating the D_e value of the target population. We test this so-called Bayesian outlier model (BOM) using data sets obtained for individual grains of quartz from sediments deposited in a variety of settings, and in simulations. We find that the BOM is suitable for single-grain D_e distributions containing outliers that, for a variety of reasons, do not form part of the target population. For example, D_e outliers may be associated with grains that have undesirable luminescence properties (e.g., thermal instability, high rates of anomalous fading) or with contaminant grains incorporated into a sample when collected in the field or prepared in the laboratory. Grains that have much larger or smaller D_e values than the target population, due to factors such as insufficient bleaching, beta-dose heterogeneity or post-depositional disturbance, may also be identified as outliers using the BOM, enabling these values to be weighted appropriately for final D_e and age determination.     

地震各向异性——多组裂隙对横波偏振的影响

通过对多分量地震资料的分析,我们发现随着频率的增加横波分裂时差减小.对于深部接收的VSP数据来说快横波的偏振方向保持不变,而对于浅层接收的VSP数据来说偏振方向却存在一个最大可以达到20°的旋转.尽管多尺度随机分布微裂隙岩石物理模型已经成功地模拟并解释了横波分裂时差随频率变化的现象,却不能解释与频率相关的横波分裂.据推测,如果微裂隙的排列方向和大裂隙的排列方向不同,利用低频信息获得的偏振方向将指示裂隙主方向,而利用高频信息获得的偏振方向则指示微裂隙方向.在背景多孔隙介质中存在多组裂隙的情况下,推导出垂直入射条件下横波偏振方向的解析式,给出了系统研究横波在介质中传播的方法.研究结果表明,横波偏振方向会随着频率的变化而变化,并且在入射方位、角度一定的条件下,是裂隙方位和密度的函数,这些认识可能有助于揭示观测到的、依赖频率变化的横波偏振现象.     

频谱激电非线性效应的理论模型

从电化学理论出发,建立了当系统略偏离平衡状态时,矿物－溶液界面的面极化等效电路模型．利用非线性网络理论,分析计算了一般电流激发下等效电路的过电位响应．通过对黄铁矿和石墨两类标本的实验对比,证明该等效电路模型是合理的,所作的分析计算是正确的,为进一步研究激发极化的非线性效应提供了合适的理论模型．     

红外焦平面探测器信息获取与预处理电路设计

针对中国科学院上海技术物理研究所研制的1500元红外线列焦平面探测器的输出特性,提出了以低噪声运放为核心的信息获取电路和以FPGA(Field Programmable Gate Array)为核心的数据预处理的设计方案,实现了驱动电路和探测器的良好匹配,较好地发挥了探测器高灵敏度的特性.测试结果表明,该方案不仅对系统获得优于50 mK噪声等效温差的高灵敏度成像起到了重要作用,足够宽的量化设计还保证了系统的动态范围和图像的丰富层次.该设计方案已成功应用在一些其他类型的红外焦平面探测器中.     

关于业务上应用条件对称不稳定相关问题的讨论

条件对称不稳定（CSI）理论常常被用来作为倾斜对流的发展机制之一,在业务上常用来解释与锋面相联系的一条或多条中尺度雨带、雷达图像上观测到的带状雨带的成因等。条件对称不稳定的诊断包括CSI斜率判据、斜升对流有效位能（SCAPE）、湿对称不稳定（MSI）、相当位涡（EPV）等判据。业务预报人员存疑较多的问题是这些方法是否具有一致性并在业务上如何使用。针对上述问题,首先通过与业务预报人员较熟悉的条件不稳定类型作类比,来说明条件对称不稳定两种判据与条件不稳定两种判据的相似性。但在业务使用上,判别条件对称不稳定时多使用CSI斜率判据,即等动量面的坡度大于等位温面坡度而小于等湿球位温面坡度。由于条件对称不稳定通常出现在大气处于几乎饱和的情况下,此时的CSI斜率判据则演变为湿对称不稳定判据,即等动量面坡度小于等湿球位温面坡度。为判别相当位涡与湿对称不稳定判据是否具有一致性,文中的推导和实例分析均表明,二维相当位涡实际上是湿对称不稳定判据的另一种表现形式,但是湿对称不稳定判据需主观去比较等相当位温面与等动量面斜率大小,而二维相当位涡则可通过其是否小于0进行客观判断。需注意的是,在与推导条件对称不稳定斜率判据相同的二维坐标下,相当位涡与湿对称不稳定判据才具有一致性,将相当位涡扩展到常规坐标下使用三维相当位涡作为湿对称不稳定判据是不可取的。