EnSRF雷达资料同化在一次飑线过程中的应用研究

本文利用包含复杂冰相微物理过程的WRF（Weather Research and Forecasting）模式,针对2007年4月23日发生在我国华南地区的一次典型飑线天气过程,分别进行了确定性预报和集合预报试验,发现确定性预报能大致捕捉到飑线系统的发生发展过程,但对飑线后部的层云区模拟效果较差。集合预报能够有效地减少模式的不确定性,大部分集合成员对飑线的模拟效果优于确定性预报。进一步将集合预报得到的40个成员作为背景场,采用EnSRF（Ensemble Square Root Filter）同化多普勒天气雷达资料,并将分析得到的集合作为初始场进行集合预报,通过与未同化雷达资料的集合对比,考察了EnSRF同化多部雷达资料对飑线系统的影响。结果表明:EnSRF雷达资料同化增加了模式初始场的中小尺度信息,大部分集合成员的分析场能够较准确地再现飑线的热力场、动力场和微物理场的细致特征,并且模拟出飑线后部的层云结构。通过对EnSRF分析的集合进行模拟发现,大部分集合成员较未同化雷达资料时模拟效果有明显改善。同化后的集合预报ETS（Equitable Threat Score）评分最高,其次是未同化的集合预报,确定性预报的最低。     

京津冀地区中α尺度飑线过程中大风特征分析及成因初探

应用常规天气观测资料、地面加密自动气象站资料、大风灾情报资料、京津冀地区7部多普勒天气雷达组网观测资料及VDRAS资料,从多个角度对2013年8月4日京津冀地区一次飑线过程产生的大范围大风天气过程进行了分析,结果显示:此次过程是在高空冷空气南下、低层暖湿气流北上、系统前倾及位势不稳定的有利层结条件下,由多单体风暴演变为中α尺度的强飑线所致。飑线形成于低层垂直切变加强、冷池合并之后;大风主要发生在飑线主体回波中,其次是主体回波前和中前,主体回波后很少发生。大风发生的位置取决于飑线结构中气流的性质,气流的性质与冷池前进的程度和对流的强度关系密切。大风大部分由下沉冷气流产生,少数为近地面上升暖气流导致。大风发生的范围和强度与低层风垂直切变的强度呈正比,大范围低层风垂直切变的加强增强了飑线入流和出流的强度,是大范围大风、局部强风形成的重要原因。大风发生站次与冷池的强度和范围密切相关,冷池的加强和范围的扩大加强了后侧冷入流和前侧暖入流的强度和范围,也是大范围大风形成的重要因素。     

鲁中南一次暴雨过程的特征和成因分析

利用常规气象观测资料、NCEP 1°×1°逐6h的再分析资料、GPS可降雨资料和地闪定位资料,对2013年7月4—5日山东中南部出现的暴雨到大暴雨天气过程的不同阶段特征和成因进行了分析,结果表明:本次暴雨过程是冷暖切变线所引发,暴雨的水汽源于南海;低空急流的强弱和水汽通量的大小呈正相关;暖切变线暴雨的雨强、影响范围和持续时间明显大于冷切变线暴雨;冷、暖切变线GPS可降雨量表现不同,前者短时间内增幅大,地面强降雨在峰值出现1h后发生,对地面降雨变化反映较敏感,后者强降雨出现前8h可降雨量快速上升,可降雨量峰值对应地面降雨大值,对地面降雨变化反映不敏感;冷切变线对流性更强,地闪频次为暖切变线降雨的2倍,正地闪频次为暖切变线降雨的1/2,负地闪频次为暖切变线降雨的2倍;降雨云团正、负地闪活跃程度呈反相位关系,正、负地闪的变化能很好地反映强降雨的变化;冷、暖切变线动力结构不同,前者物理量场从低层到高层向北倾斜,后者则为垂直分布;冷切变线上升运动区较暖切变线深厚。     

重力场对飞行器制导的影响及海洋重力测线布设

重点围绕远程飞行器飞行轨道控制保障需求,开展了空中扰动引力计算和地面重力异常测量精度指标及海洋重力测量测线布设方案的分析与论证。首先通过解析和简化飞行器导航误差解表达式,定量估计了地球重力场对远程飞行器飞行轨迹的影响,并以一定量值的落点偏差为限定指标,研究论证了空中扰动引力的计算精度要求。在此基础上,通过对地面重力异常截断误差及数据传播误差的估计和分析,研究确定了地面/海面网格平均重力异常的观测分辨率和计算精度指标。以此为依据,提出了相对应的海洋重力测量测线布设方案,并通过数值计算验证了所提方案的合理性和有效性。     

顾及拓扑一致性的水系三维曲线化简

鉴于常规曲线化简方法应用于水系曲线化简时难以顾及水系要素的三维特征及其拓扑关系,本文提出了一种顾及拓扑一致性的水系三维曲线化简方法。该方法首先对D-P算法进行三维扩展,实现水系中单条河流三维曲线化简,然后构建水系树结构表达其拓扑关系,最后按照水系树的层次顺序依次进行河流曲线化简和干流与支流的拓扑关系重构。试验结果表明,该方法化简精度高,既能保持水系的三维形态特征,又能保证河流交汇处的拓扑一致性。     

煤矿地质成图中多边形快速生成算法

针对煤矿地质成图中左转算法生成多边形在复杂的二维图形条件下应用效率低的问题,该文提出了一种新的基于左转算法的多边形快速选取及自动生成算法,实现了2D图形环境中多边形的快速选取及自动生成。通过在进行多边形选取时的起始点,起始方向的选择和对悬挂点、线进行处理,解决了复杂图形下多边形选取及自动生成过程中存在的重复生成、效率低下和搜索回退问题。基于GeoMS3D实现该算法,实验结果表明:该算法逻辑简单、结构清晰,在实际的应用中表现出了较高的运算效率。     

月球东海盆地综合解析与撞击初始条件的研究

东海是月球上最年轻的多环撞击盆地,关于其形成机制的研究很多,但成果大都基于正撞击的机制提出的,虽然有部分学者提出东海是斜撞击的,但缺乏具体撞击参数。本文通过多源数据融合,综合分析LRO影像数据、LOLA地形数据、M~3高光谱数据和IIM高光谱数据,对东海地区的地貌特征、物质成分进行了较为系统的解译,发现在东海中央熔融区存在一条与东海撞击方向垂直的中央隆起区域(中央隆起线),其也是中央熔融区粗糙部分与光滑部分的分界线,结合撞击坑成坑理论,认为其可能是撞击过程冲击波作用引起的堆叠作用形成的。同时利用GRAIL数据及对该地区的重力异常的成因进行了分析,认为异常是由于压强、温度及岩石粘度的改变引起局部莫霍面抬升和中央熔融物的形成而出现的,进而估算出熔融物占盆地内物质的25%,约为1.1×10~6km~3。同时,对GRAIL数据的剖面分析结果也支持了本文的斜撞击理论。最后,综合多方面的信息和撞击理论获取东海盆地构造分布图,并根据中央隆起线、溅射物及线性构造的分布特征等,提出东海盆地理论上是由一直径在50~100km的撞击体以10~30km/s的速度自东偏北约20°~30°方向以20°~30°的角度斜撞击月表而形成的。这可为研究更早期的月球撞击坑提供理论参考。     

Review of Earth Critical Zone Research

Since the Earth Critical Zone put forward by National Research Council of America in 2001, it has got a lot of attention and some significant progresses have been made. This paper summarized those Earth Critical Zone projects and related research plans organized and implemented by the United States of America, Germany, Australia, France, China and the European Union, as well as main scientific problems and future development direction in the study of Earth Critical Zone. According to research status of China, the four main research contents should be strengthened including structure, formation and evolution mechanism of Earth Critical Zone, the coulpling interaction mechanism between migration and transformation of material and multi-processes, sevice function and evolution features of Earth Critical Zone and its support and effect on sustainable development, model simulation of process and system of Earth Critical Zone. In addition, our country should actively conduct cooperation and communication with the advanced countries, and enhance our involvement in international key research plans.     

Comparative Study of the Carbon Emission Situation and Goals between China and India

As the two large developing and populous countries, China and India face the dual challenges of economic development and climate change. Both of them are active in carbon emissions reduction, while India also bears the pressure of being “benchmarked” against China. With taking China and India as the sample of a comparative analysis, and the statistical value of a long sequence as the basic analysis data, based on the detailed analysis and comparison of carbon emissions history, the carbon emissions situation of the two countries from various dimensions including economic development, energy reserves and consumption, etc. were comparatively analyzed. The carbon intensity and energy structure after achieving the objectives were measured and compared by focusing on the carbon emissions reduction targets in China and India. The comparative results show that: China’s total carbon emissions are greater than India’s, but the growth rate of emissions, per capita emissions are significantly lower than India’s, while the carbon intensity decreases significantly faster than that of India. China has taken more efforts to make commitments to carbon reduction than India. With India’s energy structure adjustment, the situation will be gradually better than that in China.     

Comparative Analysis of International Energy Consumption Characteristics and China's Countermeasures

With the rise of low carbon economy and the deterioration of the international energy situation, most countries in the world pay more attention to energy issues. In this paper, based on a comparison with several countries of large energy consumption, we used long sequence statistics to analyze the energy consumption characteristics from the world and the history, including energy consumption, energy consumption structure and energy efficiency, and then summed up the characteristics of energy consumption in developed countries, analyzed China's energy consumption process and the current stage, and found out the main problems of energy consumption in China. At last, countermeasures for the healthy development of China's energy were proposed, including actively promoting scientific and technological progress, upgrading energy structure, developing low carbon economy, rationalizing energy prices, improving the proportion of clean energy consumption and emphasizing synergistic effect on environment protection.