北京突发地质灾害应急避险场所调查评价

结合北京地区突发地质灾害发育特征,提出了应急避险场所调查的内容、方法、工作流程及技术指标等内容,总结分析了北京市应急避险场所的分布、类型、规模、物资储备、建筑形式、路线长度及受灾情况等特征。同时,根据给出的应急避险场所适宜性简易评价方法对全市的应急避险场所进行了系统全面的评价,并针对性的提出了避险防范措施。     

国家防震减灾指挥中心的构成

介绍了防震减灾指挥中心作为领导和专家共同迅速有效处置地震应急事件的工作平台,该中心是国务院抗震救灾指挥的主要工作场所。防震减灾指挥中心包括指挥中心机房、指挥大厅和辅助工作区三部分。指挥中心建设是一项复杂的系统工程建设项目,包括了计算机系统、网络、通讯、声像、供电、空调、投影显示、GIS技术应用、数据库、软件开发、机房建设等。可对抗震救灾工作快速作出科学决策。     

初论地质灾害的应急管理

地质灾害的应急管理是一个涉及多个部门、领域、阶段和目标的复杂系统.文章描述了国家地质灾害应急管理体系,分析了地质灾害管理的常态机制和灾害机制,初步探讨了地质灾害应急管理的墓本方法和要点,并对该应急管理系统框架进行了构想.     

地震应急避难广场规划探讨——以旺苍为例

本文对城市地震应急避难场所的建设现状和必要性进行了论述,分析计算了地震应急避难场所的类型,对地震应急避难场所编制内容及方法进行了探讨.同时以旺苍县城为例进行了详细分析.本文对提高城市综合防灾减灾能力有一定的参考意义.     

1996年云南丽江7.0级地震人员死亡的社会学特征

笔者在丽江市古城区地震局查阅到1份丽江7.0级地震人员死亡的统计表,表中详细记录了死亡人员的年龄、性别、文化程度、职业、死亡原因、死亡地点等情况.通过对上述资料的分析,可得出本次地震死亡人员的年龄、性别、文化、职业特征.同时与国内同类研究相比,丽江地震造成的人员死亡具有普遍的一般特征,也具有云南民族地区、经济欠发达地区...     

移动地质灾害应急指挥系统设计与实现

本文讨论了ArcGIS空间分析、数据库管理和移动通信等技术,并分析了地质环境因子、地质灾害危险性预报预警等级图及实际灾害点信息,将其与智能手机结合,建立了移动地质灾害应急指挥系统。通过系统随时随地获取可靠的地质灾害预警预报信息,提高对突发性地质灾害的反应能力,从而达到有效防灾、减灾的目的。     

A GeoAgent‐based framework for knowledge‐oriented representation: Embracing social rules in GIS

While current Geographic Information Systems (GISs) can represent observational spatial data well, they have limited capabilities in representing some non‐observational social elements and goal‐driven behaviours that can be important factors in a wide range of geographic issues. Such social components may include laws, regulations, polices, plans, culture, and customs, as well as their relations and interactions with the geographic environment at different scales. Getting beyond traditional data‐centred approaches, this research presents a knowledge‐oriented strategy in order to address these issues within a GIS context. We incorporate two major conceptual elements. First, extending from conventional agent notions and their geographic applications, geographic agents (GeoAgents) are considered as a basic representation component to specifically address social rules and goal‐driven behaviours that impact the Earth and environmental systems. Second, in order to incorporate GeoAgents with current space–time representation, a new conceptual representation framework, called ‘fields, objects, time, GeoAgents, and relations’ (FOTAR), is introduced to address the cross‐scale processes of both social and natural interactions. A Java‐based prototype, GeoAgent‐based Knowledge System (GeoAgentKS), is described to implement this framework by integrating agent technologies with multiple data and knowledge representation techniques, such as expert systems, concept maps, mathematical models, and geospatial databases. The application of this prototype in a case study is also presented, investigating scale‐dependent human–environment interactions under different emergency situations for community water systems in Central Pennsylvania, USA. In this case study, a systematic set of methodologies of knowledge acquisition, representation, and confirmation for constructing GeoAgents' knowledge bases by using expert systems were explored to formalize high‐level knowledge and social behaviours in the FOTAR‐based representations. The results show that the proposed conceptual representation framework is achievable at both implementation and application levels, and the prototype tool is demonstrated to be valuable in facilitating knowledge sharing, policymaking, municipal management, and decision‐making, especially for real‐world emergency management.     

模拟地震现场应急通信演练策划

就如何运用好目前福建省地震局所配备的地震现场应急通信系统开展演练进行了探讨。将现场通信演练细分为现场局域网系统、卫星通信系统、现场后勤保障系统和现场单兵通信系统进行策划,详细论述了演练的情景、科目、流程和演练目标等方面的内容。地震现场应急通信的演练策划所涉及的演练设备、演练内容、演练策略、演练评价及演练追踪评价等方面也做了相应的阐述。     

Hazard warnings and responses to evacuation orders: the case of Bangladesh's cyclone Sidr

On 15 November 2007 Cyclone Sidr, a category 4 storm, struck the southwestern coast of Bangladesh. Despite early cyclone warnings and evacuation orders for coastal residents, thousands of individuals stayed in their homes. This study examines dissemination of the warning, assesses the warning responses, and explores the reasons why many residents did not evacuate. Field data collected from 257 Sidr survivors in four severely affected coastal districts revealed that more than three-fourths of all respondents were aware of the cyclone warnings and evacuation orders. Despite the sincere efforts of the Bangladesh government, however, lapses in cyclone warnings and evacuation procedures occurred. Field data also revealed several reasons why evacuation orders were not followed. The reasons fell into three broad groups: those involving shelter characteristics; the attributes of the warning message itself; and the respondents' characteristics. Based on our findings, we recommend improved cyclone warnings and utilization of public shelters for similar events in the future.     

A new approach on seismic mortality estimations based on average population density

This study examines a new methodology to predict the final seismic mortality from earthquakes in China. Most studies established the association between mortality estimation and seismic intensity without considering the population density. In China, however, the data are not always available, especially when it comes to the very urgent relief situation in the disaster. And the population density varies greatly from region to region. This motivates the development of empirical models that use historical death data to provide the path to analyze the death tolls for earthquakes. The present paper employs the average population density to predict the final death tolls in earthquakes using a case-based reasoning model from realistic perspective. To validate the forecasting results, historical data from 18 large-scale earthquakes occurred in China are used to estimate the seismic morality of each case. And a typical earthquake case occurred in the northwest of Sichuan Province is employed to demonstrate the estimation of final death toll. The strength of this paper is that it provides scientific methods with overall forecast errors lower than 20 %, and opens the door for conducting final death forecasts with a qualitative and quantitative approach. Limitations and future research are also analyzed and discussed in the conclusion.