构建城市地震应急管理综合应对体系的对策

由于城市地震的复杂性和严重危害性,传统地震应急管理存在突出问题,必需采用综合应对才能够确保最经济的应急管理成本,满足应对全灾难的基本需要,从而保证城市安全管理的基本需求,实现统一高效的指挥和运作。城市地震应急管理综合应对体系的构建应从信息系统、指挥系统、资源管理系统和保障系统等方面展开。     

地震灾害下的老旧社区避难场地规划方法研究

建于上世纪50、60年代的老旧社区广泛分布于我国各个城市的建成区中,当地震灾害来临时,能否快速的进入避难场地进行避难是衡量老旧社区安全程度的重要指标之一。韧性防灾作为近年来重要的防灾理念之一,强调社区可以通过自身的体系抵抗地震灾害的冲击。该研究以地震灾害为基础,依托韧性防灾的理念,运用多智能体仿真模拟,建立老旧社区的避难场地规划方法。同时以大连工人村老旧社区为例,构建出新增集中型与分散型避难场地影响实验,得出相应的新增避难场地规划选择方法与布局策略。     

基于MINA框架的应急救助与地震灾情管理平台设计与实现

针对不同用户群体应急救助和地震灾情需求,基于MINA框架,运用阿里云基础架构、微信组件和应用程序接口等技术方法,设计并构建集灾情信息收集与报送、应急救助服务、科普宣教等功能于一体的管理平台。该平台的设计与实现不仅有利于震后现场应急队员收集并准确报送实时灾情信息,还可为被救助人员提供防震减灾知识和地震应急避难场所空间分布等应急救助信息,实现了应急救助与地震灾情的综合管理,提升了震后应急救助、应急指挥和辅助决策等方面的服务能力。     

滨海城市竖向避难场所选址可靠性评价与若干问题探讨

关注滨海城市竖向避难场所的选址可靠性问题,首先深化确立“竖向避难场所”概念;然后构建竖向避难场所选址可靠性评价模型,综合自然地理要素和建成环境要素,从与灾害直接作用相关的选址暴露性、与应急交通相关的选址敏感性、与应急服务相关的选址适应性3个维度展开,搭建3级评价指标体系;再以天津滨海新区为例、聚焦滨海城市潮洪灾害和人口安全矛盾的集核——临港城区展开实证研究,借助ArcGIS分类与可视化发现：高低可靠性选址之间具有明显的空间分异,可以分解为灾害暴露性的“近岸高?远岸低”分异、交通敏感性的“外围高?中心低”分异、服务适应性的“中心与沿河高?外围低”兼“近港高?远港低”分异。同时发现：商业设施用地选址价值较高,在高可靠性选址中占比第一;中小学和社会福利设施用地选址价值最高,在高可靠性选址中占比第二;文化科研和娱乐康体设施用地在高可靠性选址中占比最小。针对临港城区实证研究结果,提出滨海城市竖向避难场所选址及可靠性提升对策。     

Impact of katabatic winds on the environment of Neanderthals during the Middle Palaeolithic in westernmost Europe

Compilation of the offshore and onshore altitudinal limits of the loess deposits of western France and southern England shows that they were deposited by low-level wind fields. These relate to (i) the deflation of silt-rich sediment extracted from the outwash plains of the not far distant British–Irish Ice Sheet and from the palaeo-rivers of the Channel, and (ii) the existence of north and north-western palaeo-winds deduced from particle size analysis and heavy mineral distribution, and suggest (iii) that loess particles were transported by strong katabatic winds blowing from the northern ice-covered regions towards Brittany and Normandy. Comparison between the main orientation of Neanderthal shelters and the direction of the katabatic winds shows that they were perpendicular to each other. The dominant orientation of the shelters was apparently ruled by these winds. A small-scale study concentrating on the penultimate glaciation shows that in contrast to Brittany and Normandy where loess deposits accumulated on north-facing cliffs, in England the same particles were deposited on the leeside of the hills. The existence of deflation zones, violently swept by Marine Isotope Stage 6 katabatic winds south of the British–Irish ice sheet, was probably at the origin of the restricted number of Neanderthals at that time in England. © 2021 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

WQS网络通信系统应急备用系统的设计思路

从气象通信实时业务角度出发，根据目前业务环境状况，充分利用现有微机设备，提出了一种投入少、见效快、便于维护管理的ＷＱＳ网络通信系统的应急备用系统设计思路。从技术路线建设的可行性及方法上，对该设计思路作了比较详细、具体的阐述。     

卫星定位导航系统在地震应急救援中的应用

在对地震灾害特点综合分析的基础上,分析了地震应急响应与救援决策中的关键性问题。认为震害的规模、程度、空间分布和灾情发展趋势,以及快速获取灾情信息已成为整个地震应急响应和救援决策的关键;而对灾情空间分布及其不同灾情程度位置的确定是救援决策的先导与重要环节。卫星定位导航技术在地震应急搜救的信息快速获取、应急响应、救援决策、指挥、搜索与营救等救援行动的整个过程中,都将发挥其强大的功能。建议研发中国北斗灾害应急救援导航与指挥决策系统,包括地震灾情快速获取、快速判定和决策定位导航技术系统、地震救援指挥调度技术系统和应急救援物流定位导航技术系统建设;研发北斗灾害应急救援导航装备,包括自主定位导航幸存者搜索和营救设备研发和国内外巨灾救援专用定位与导航系统研发。     

基于GIS的宁波市应急避难场所信息系统初步研究

宁波是个人口众多、突发事故频发的沿海城市,宁波市应急避难场所信息系统的研究对应急指挥、人员疏散都具有重要的社会现实意义。本文在GIS技术的基础上,提出应急避难场所信息系统总体结构及技术路线,阐述其实现的基本原理,并提出构建宁波市应急避难场所信息系统的初步框架。     

Leveraging farmers’ strategies for coping with stress: Seed aid in Ethiopia

Interventions to reduce farmers’ vulnerability to crises rarely build on existing coping strategies. Emergency seed aid offers a unique opportunity to examine links between different types of interventions and local coping mechanisms, as such relief has been abundant and long-term. This study focuses on farmers’ use and assessment of crisis assistance within Ethiopia, where seed aid delivery dates back at least 34 years. Farmers’ abilities to strategize and negotiate inter-/intra-seasonal variability are not being addressed by current supply-driven approaches. Lessons derived from seed aid give insights toward more effective practice for programs aiming to bolster farmers’ resilience in high-stress and uncertain contexts.     

Participatory methods of incorporating scientific with traditional knowledge for volcanic hazard management on Ambae Island,Vanuatu

Ambae Island is the largest of Vanuatus active volcanoes. It is also one of the nations potentially most dangerous, with 60 million m³ of lake-water perched at over 1340 m in the summit caldera and over the active vent. In 1995, small phreatic explosions, earthquake swarms and heightened gas release led to calls for evacuation preparation and community volcanic hazard awareness programs for the ~9500 inhabitants. Differences in perspective or world-view between the island dwellers adhering to traditional beliefs (Kastom) and external scientists and emergency managers led to a climate of distrust following this crisis. In an attempt to address these issues, rebuild dialogue and respect between communities, outside scientists and administrators, and move forward in volcanic hazard education and planning for Ambae, we adapted and applied Participatory Rural Appraisal (PRA) approaches. Initial gender-segregated PRA exercises from two representative communities provided a mechanism for cataloguing local traditional viewpoints and hazard perceptions. Ultimately, by combining elements of these viewpoints and perceptions with science-based management structures, we derived volcanic hazard management guidelines, supported by an alert system and map that were more readily accepted by the test communities than the earlier top-down plans imposed by outside governmental and scientific agencies. The strength of PRA approaches is that they permit scientists to understand important local perspective issues, including visualisations of volcanic hazards, weaknesses in internal and external communication systems, and gender and hierarchy conflicts, all of which can hinder community emergency management. The approach we describe has much to offer both developing and industrialised communities that wish to improve their awareness programs and mitigative planning. This approach should also enhance communication and understanding between volcanologists and the communities they serve.