一次强雨凇造成的供电中断事故天气分析

作者介绍了１９９４年１１月１５日，由邹县电厂至淄博５００ｋＶ超高压输电线路＃４４８ＺＭ塔倒塔事故的情况。并对造成这次倒塔事故的天气条件进行了分析     

利用自回归模型检测地球极移重力效应

同时采用4个台站的国际超导重力仪长期连续重力观测资料和国际地球自转服务中心提供的同步地球自转参数，研究了极移引起的地球重力场变化特征。利用自回归模型估计了各序列的功率谱密度和积谱密度，结果表明极移导致的重力效应的主要能量集中在Chandler摆动和周年项附近，叠积后实际重力观测与极移重力信号理论值之间的差异分别为0．4％和3．9％，说明超导重力仪可有效监测极移导致的重力变化。     

人影高炮作业数据采集器的移动电源设计

高炮作业是人工影响天气的日常工作,其作业数据的采集与收集尤为重要。高炮作业数据采集器是实现作业数据的采集与存储,一般采用锂电池供电。针对锂电池容量低而无法满足采集器的长时间使用,常在高炮作业的关键时刻电量不足影响高炮作业顺利进行的问题,设计了一种人影高炮作业数据采集器的专用移动电源。该专用移动电源由充放电保护电路、电芯、电芯容量指示电路、DC-DC升压电路、及CN3703充电管理电路等部分组成。经过最终测试,该设计符合实际使用要求、成本低、性能稳定,具有较强的工程应用价值。     

广州市城市电力消费对气候变化的响应

低纬度地区的城市电力消费对气候变化有较为敏感的响应。该文引入了气候变化对农业产量和能源影响的研究方法, 分别建立了气候变化对电力消费影响强度的动态评估模型和降温度日模型, 对广州市城市电力消费对气候变化的响应作了深入分析。结果表明:广州市城市电力消费量主要受到气温、湿度、风速等气象因子的影响, 其中气温为关键性因子; 综合考虑各气候因子和气候变化的稳定性, 1956—2005年的近50年, 广州市气候变化对城市电力消费影响强度是持续稳定增加的, 正强度出现的概率呈现出增大趋势, 以10%/10a的速度增长; 通过对广州市降温度日的分析可知, 5—10月为主要的降温时期, 其气温的升高对降温度日强度变化影响很大, 达到46.6%/ ℃, 同时, 广州市的降温期长度变率也呈递增趋势, 因此, 气温的升高引发的降温度日的增加对广州市城市电力消费有深刻影响; 在未来气候变暖情景下, 夏季平均最高气温每升高1 ℃, 广州市全年单位工业产值耗电将增加2.02%, 5—10月的平均气温每升高1 ℃, 居民生活用电量的百分比将增加1.25%。在未来, 气候变暖将使城市用电压力有继续增大的趋势。     

The adoption of sustainable innovations: Driven by symbolic and environmental motives

Critical to the environmental success of sustainable innovations is the adoption by consumers. The consensus is that instrumental shortcomings of sustainable innovations inhibit their adoption. However, we argue that the adoption of sustainable innovations does not exclusively depend on their instrumental attributes. In addition, people may be motivated to adopt sustainable innovations because of their positive environmental and symbolic attributes, that is, they benefit the environment and can be used to signal positive characteristics to oneself and others. We studied the significance of instrumental, environmental and symbolic attributes for the adoption of two sustainable innovations: electric cars (Study 1) and local renewable energy systems (Study 2), following two methods. Results showed that when asked directly, participants claimed that instrumental and environmental attributes are most important for their decision to adopt sustainable innovations, while symbolic attributes were rated as less important. Interestingly, evaluations of the symbolic and environmental attributes of sustainable innovations, but not evaluations of their instrumental attributes, predicted different indicators of adoption (i.e., interest in, the acceptability of, and intention to adopt these sustainable innovations), suggesting that the significance of symbolic motives for adopting sustainable innovations may not be recognized by consumers. Moreover, favorable evaluations of symbolic attributes particularly enhanced interest in and acceptability of sustainable innovation when participants evaluated the instrumental attributes more negatively, but not when instrumental attributes were evaluated relatively positively. This suggests that the instrumental drawbacks of sustainable innovations may sometimes strengthen their positive signal, which can promote interest in sustainable innovations.     

远东热点:朝鲜半岛形势分析

朝鲜半岛独特的地理位置，无论对周边的中，俄，日三国，还是对大洋彼岸的美国都具有十分重要的地缘战略意义。如果说这里是四大国利益相互交错的唯一地区，那么解决朝鲜半岛问题便不仅取决于半岛内部北，南双方的互动关系，而且取决于四大四的立场及东北亚政治地理格局的演变态势。近年来随着朝鲜北，南双方首脑的成功会晤，朝鲜半岛的和平统一进程迈出了实质性步伐。但由于朝鲜半岛问题牵涉面广，影响因素复杂，从而使半岛的和平统一进程出现了一波三折的复杂局面，本文从政治地理学角度对半岛形势进行了分析。供关心朝鲜半岛局势的同仁参考。     

Net Energy Payback and CO2 Emissions from Three Midwestern Wind Farms: An Update

This paper updates a life-cycle net energy analysis and carbon dioxide emissions analysis of three Midwestern utility-scale wind systems. Both the Energy Payback Ratio (EPR) and CO₂ analysis results provide useful data for policy discussions regarding an efficient and low-carbon energy mix. The EPR is the amount of electrical energy produced for the lifetime of the power plant divided by the total amount of energy required to procure and transport the materials, build, operate, and decommission the power plants. The CO₂ analysis for each power plant was calculated from the life-cycle energy input data. A previous study also analyzed coal and nuclear fission power plants. At the time of that study, two of the three wind systems had less than a full year of generation data to project the life-cycle energy production. This study updates the analysis of three wind systems with an additional four to eight years of operating data. The EPR for the utility-scale wind systems ranges from a low of 11 for a two-turbine system in Wisconsin to 28 for a 143-turbine system in southwestern Minnesota. The EPR is 11 for coal, 25 for fission with gas centrifuge enriched uranium and 7 for gaseous diffusion enriched uranium. The normalized CO₂ emissions, in tonnes of CO₂ per GW_eh, ranges from 14 to 33 for the wind systems, 974 for coal, and 10 and 34 for nuclear fission using gas centrifuge and gaseous diffusion enriched uranium, respectively.     

海上风电吸力基础在分层土中的沉贯特性研究综述

吸力基础与海洋工程大直径钢桩相比,具有成本低、安装周期短、对环境影响小、不受海况影响及可回收再利用等优点,近年来在海上风电工程中得到推广应用。吸力基础沉贯至海床预定位置,是其发挥承载力和确保服役稳定性的前提。海床地基土体常以分层土形式分布,且各层土体强度、压缩性和渗透性等存在显著差别,导致吸力基础吸力沉贯机理非常复杂。明确吸力基础在分层土中沉贯特性,有助于指导吸力基础在海上风电工程中的推广应用。对目前吸力基础在分层土中沉贯特性研究进行综述和总结,归纳了其沉贯机理研究进展,并对影响吸力基础在分层土中沉贯因素进行了分析;提出了分层土中吸力基础沉贯的研究方向和改进的沉贯方法。     

基于小波长短期记忆网络的风电功率超短期概率预测

随着大规模的风电并网,风电所具有的间歇性与随机性对电力系统的稳定性产生了很大的影响,风电功率预测成为当前解决该问题重要的方式之一.本文利用长短期记忆（LSTM）网络良好的时序记忆特性,将小波分解技术与LSTM深度网络结合,提出基于小波长短期记忆网络的风电功率超短期概率预测模型.首先通过小波分解技术将原始时间序列进行平稳化处理,再建立各子序列样本的LSTM网络预测模型,借助最大似然估计法估计预测误差的高斯分布函数,最终实现对未来4 h时刻的风电功率概率区间预测.最后,采用中国东北某风电场数据对所提方法进行算例分析,结果表明,将小波分解与深度学习方法结合可以较好地提高预测的精度,提高概率预测的区间可靠性.