振动Kuzmin盘中恒星的运动性质

本文研究振动盘中恒星的运动性质．所采用的势模型为它由一种具简单径向振动模态的Kuzmin盘和一种对数晕共同产生．得到的主要结论是：（1）恒星存在稳定且有序的近圆轨道；（2）盘振动对角动量较小的恒星及远离近圆轨道的恒星影响较大；（3）盘中大部分恒星的运动是有序的；（4）远离近圆轨道的恒星一般作混沌运动，并且最终可能逃逸，但在一个Hubble时间内实际逃逸的恒星比例较小；（5）盘振动可能是振动Kurmin盘中某些星团形成并长期维持的机制之一，盘振动幅度越大，盘中星团数目可能越多；在同一个星系盘中，角动量越大的星团数目可能越少．     

Suspended sediment yield and metal contamination in a river catchment affected by El Niño events and gold mining activities: the Puyango river basin,southern Ecuador

The suspended sediment yield and the transfer of polluted sediment are investigated for the Puyango river basin in southern Ecuador. This river system receives metal (Cd, Cu, Hg, Pb and Zn) and cyanide pollution generated by mining, and is associated with large‐scale hydrological variability, which is partly governed by El Niño events. Field sampling and statistical modelling methods are used to quantify the amount of mine tailings that is discharged into the basin. Annual suspended sediment yields are estimated using a novel combination of the suspended sediment rating method and Monte Carlo simulations, which allow for propagation of the uncertainties of the calculations that lead to final load estimates. Geochemical analysis of suspended and river bed sediment is used to assess the dispersion and long‐term fate of contaminated sediment within the river catchment. Knowledge of the inter‐ and intra‐annual variation in suspended sediment yield is shown to be crucial for judging the importance of mining discharges, and the extent to which the resultant pollution is diluted by river flows. In wet years, polluted sediments represent only a very small proportion of the yield estimates, but in dry years the proportion can be significant. Evidence shows that metal contaminated sediments are stored in the Puyango river bed during low flows. Large flood events flush this sediment periodically, both on an annual cycle associated with the rainy season, and also related to El Niño events. Therefore, environmental impacts of mining‐related discharges are more likely to be severe during dry years compared with wet years, and in the dry season rather than the wet season. The hydrological consequences of El Niño events are shown to depend upon the extent to which these events penetrate inland. It is, thus, shown that the general conclusion that El Niño events can significantly affect suspended sediment yields needs evaluation with respect to the particular way in which those events affect a given catchment. Copyright © 2003 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

NORTH ATLANTIC OSCILLATION SIGNATURES IN WESTERN IBERIAN TREE-RINGS

Exactly dated ring-width chronologies derived from Pyrenean oak and sweet chestnut trees growing in northern Extremadura, Spain, were evaluated for their potential as proxies for regional precipitation and North Atlantic Oscillation variability. The relationships among tree-rings, instrumental climatic records, and three versions of the NAO index were computed for different time subperiods over the last century. The results indicate that tree-ring records reflect, with variable intensity, both short-term and long-term variations in climate. Multiple correlation and regression analysis revealed that summer precipitation appeared to be the major factor affecting tree growth at inter-annual timescales. Moreover, since fluctuations in accumulated variability in annual rainfall over southwest Iberia are controlled by winter precipitation, the accumulated rainfall (August of the year n -1 to July of year n ) and winter NAO indices are also strongly correlated with tree-ring records at interdecadal timescales. This relationship appears to be especially strong during the second half of the 20th century, which is consistent with an increase of the NAO signal in the annual precipitation during the later part of the century. These results indicate that tree-rings from western Iberia are potential proxies of the NAO variability, useful to be included in palaeoclimatic model studies.     

Definition and analysis of the circulation indices of polar vortex at 10 hPa in the Northern Hemisphere

A set of circulation indices are defined and calculated to characterize monthly mean polar vortex at 10 hPa geopotential height chart in the Northern Hemisphere,including area-(S),intensity-(P) and center position (λc,φc)-indices by use of 1948-2007 NCEP/NCAR 10 hPa monthly height data.These indices series are used to investigate the seasonal variation and interannual anomaly of polar vortex,along with the relations with global warming,ozone anomaly and Arctic Oscillation (AO).The results show that (1) there is anticyclonic (cyclonic) from Jun.to Aug.(from Sep.to Mar.).The change of spring circulation pattern is slower than that of autumn.(2) S can be replaced by P due to the interannual synchronal variations of the intensity and area for polar vortex.The interannual (interdecadal) variations of P are significant in Jan.(Jul.).(3) The anomalies of system center position in Jan.are more evident than that in Jul.(4) The variations of mean temperature at mid-stratosphere in the vicinity of pole zone in Jan.are different from that in Jul.,but they are synchronal with the corresponding P and not significant correlation with the trend of global warming.However,the relationship between P and total O3 in Jul.are obvious.(5) There is so notable correlation between P and AO that P can represent AO.     

High‐resolution diatom δ18O records,from the last 150 years,reflecting changes in amount of winter precipitation in two sub‐Arctic high‐altitude lakes in the Swedish Scandes

Waters from high‐altitude alpine lakes are mainly recharged by meteoric water. Because of seasonal variations in precipitation and temperature and relatively short hydraulic residence times, most high‐altitude lakes have lake water isotopic compositions (δ¹⁸O_lake) that fluctuate due to seasonality in water balance processes. Input from snowmelt, in particular, has a significant role in determining lake water δ¹⁸O. Here we compare two high‐resolution δ¹⁸O_diatom records from lake sediments in the Swedish Scandes with instrumental data from the last century obtained from nearby meteorological stations. The time period AD 1900–1990 is characterised by an increase in winter precipitation and high winter/summer precipitation ratios and this is recorded in δ¹⁸O_diatom as decreasing trends. Lowest δ¹⁸O_diatom values and highest amount of winter precipitation are found around AD 1990 when the winter North Atlantic Oscillation index was above +2. We conclude that for the last 150 a the main factor affecting the δ¹⁸O_diatom signal in these sub‐Arctic high‐altitude lakes with short residence times has been changes in amount of winter precipitation and that δ¹⁸O_diatom derived from high‐altitude lakes in the Swedish Scandes can be used as a winter precipitation proxy. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Changes and variation in the discharge regime of the Upper Suriname River Basin and its relationship with the tropical Pacific and Atlantic SST anomalies

Long‐term changes and variability in river flows in the tropical Upper Suriname River Basin in Suriname (2–6°N, 54–58°W) are analysed, including the relation to sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in the tropical Atlantic and Pacific Ocean. To analyse variability, lag correlation and statistical properties of the data series are used. Long‐term changes are analysed using parametric and non‐parametric statistical techniques. The analyses are performed for the period 1952–1985. The results show that both river discharge series at Semoisie and Pokigron are non‐stationary and have a negative trend. The negative rainfall trend in the centre of Suriname may be responsible for the negative trend in the annual river discharges in the basin. The highest correlation (Pearson's coefficient c) is obtained when the Tropical North Atlantic (TNA) SSTs lags the monthly discharges at Pokigron by 3–4 months (c = 0·7) and when the Tropical South Atlantic (TSA) SSTs lags the discharges by 4 months (c = ? 0·7). It also follows that the high (low) monthly flows, from April–August (September–March) are associated with increasing (decreasing) SSTs in the TNA and with decreasing (increasing) SSTs in the TSA. The results also reveal that years with low (high) discharges are more related to warmer (colder) SSTs during the year in the TNA region and a southward displacement of the Inter‐Tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ). However, the Pacific El Niño (La Niña) events may also be responsible for low (high) flow years in this basin. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Evaluating Duero's basin (Spain) response to the NAO phases: spatial and seasonal variability

In this study, we analysed the influence of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) on the hydrological response of the Duero River (central Spain) and its tributaries. We identified the positive and negative phases of the winter NAO for the period 1961–2006 and related precipitation and river discharge anomalies. Significant differences in precipitation and river discharge were found between the positive and negative NAO phases with negative anomalies (dry conditions) during positive NAO periods, and positive anomalies (wet conditions) during negative NAO periods. Marked differences were also found in the precipitation and river discharge response times to the NAO episodes, with an immediate response for precipitation but a lag and more sustained response for river discharges. Differing patterns were also identified in the response of river discharge to the NAO throughout the Duero basin. The physical characteristics of watersheds (including area, altitude and permeability explained most of the differences in the timing and magnitude of anomalies in the river discharge in response to the NAO. The findings highlight the great variability in the hydrological response of rivers to the NAO episodes. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Formation of the Anomalous Summer Precipitation in East China in 2010 and 1998: A Comparison of the Impacts of Two Kinds of El Ni~no

In the summers of 1998 and 2010, severe floods occurred in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River. Although an El Ni~no event took place preceding each of the summer floods, significant differences between the two summer floods and the two El Ni~no events were identified. The 1997/98 El Ni~no is a conventional one with strongest warming in the central-eastern Pacific, whereas the 2009/10 event is an El Ni~no Modoki with strongest warming in the central Pacific. In this study, summer rainfall anomalies (SRA) in the two years were first compared based on the rainfall data at 160 stations in mainland China, and a significant difference in SRA was found. To understand the underlying mechanism for the difference, the atmospheric circulation systems, particularly the western North Pacific anticyclone (WNPAC), the western Pacific subtropical high (WPSH), and the low-level air flows, were compared in the two years by using the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data. The results display that the WNPAC was stronger in 2010 than in 1998, along with a northwestward shift, causing weakened southwesterly from the Bay of Bengal to the South China Sea but intensified southerly in eastern China. This resulted in less water vapor transport from the tropical Indian Ocean and the South China Sea but more from the subtropical western Pacific to East Asia. Subsequently, the rainband in 2010 shifted northward. The difference in the WNPAC was caused by the anomalous ascending motion associated with the warming location in the two El Ni~no events. Furthermore, the role of tropical sea surface temperature (SST) in modulating these differences was investigated by conducting sensitivity experiments using GFDL AM2.1 (Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory Atmospheric Model). Two experiments were performed, one with the observed monthly SST and the other with June SST persisting through the whole summer. The results suggest that the model well reproduced the primary differences in the atmospheric circulation systems in the two years. It is found that the difference in El Ni~no events has shaped the rainfall patterns in the two years of 1998 and 2010. At last, the case of 2010 was compared with the composite of historical El Ni~no Modoki events, and the results indicate that the impact of El Ni~no Modoki varies from case to case and is more complicated than previously revealed.     

NINO3海面温度异常时间序列的小波分析

本文对连续小波变换和离散小波变换进行了简要介绍,对连续小波变换中小波函数与尺度的选取、小波尺度与Fourier频率的关系等进行了阐述。结合太平洋中部地区1871年至2005年6月期间NINO3海面温度异常时间序列进行了小波功率谱分析,提取了其时频特征,分析结果与主要厄尔尼诺和拉尼娜事件的发生时间吻合较好。最后,利用离散小波分解与重构对时间序列进行消噪处理,并对不同层数强制消噪效果进行了比较。     

Patterns of Pacific decadal variability recorded by Indian Ocean corals

We investigate Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) signals recorded by two bimonthly resolved coral δ¹⁸O series from La Réunion and Ifaty (West Madagascar), Indian Ocean from 1882 to 1993. To isolate the main PDO frequencies, we apply a band pass filter to the time series passing only periodicities from 16 to 28 years. We investigate the covariance patterns of the coral time series with sea surface temperature (SST) and sea level pressure (SLP) of the Indian and Pacific Oceans. In addition, the empirical orthogonal functions of the filtered SST and SLP fields (single and coupled) are related to the filtered coral times series. The covariance maps show the typical PDO pattern for SST and SLP, confirming the coupling between the Indian and Pacific Oceans. Both corals show the strongest signal in boreal summer. The La Réunion (Ifaty) coral better records SST (SLP) than SLP (SST) pattern variability. We suggest that the filtered La Réunion coral δ¹⁸O represents δ¹⁸O of seawater that varies with the South Equatorial Current, which, in turn, is linked with the SST PDO. The filtered Ifaty coral δ¹⁸O represents SST and is remotely linked with the SLP PDO variability. A combined coral record of the Ifaty and La Réunion boreal summer δ¹⁸O series explains about 64% of the variance of the coupled SST/SLP PDO time series. AGU OS06 special issue “Ocean’s role in climate change—a paleo perspective”.