Hazard map of El Chichón volcano,Chiapas, México: Constraints posed by eruptive history and computer simulations

El Chichón volcano consists of a 2-km wide Somma crater compound cone 0.2 Ma old with peripheral domes with a central crater reactivated several times during the Holocene. The most recent eruption at El Chichón occurred from March 28 to April 4, 1982, resulting in the worst volcanic disaster during historical times in Mexico, killing more than 2000 people and destroying nine towns and small communities. The volcanic hazard map of El Chichón is based on detailed field work that documented twelve eruptions during the last 8000 years, and computer simulations. To validate the results, computer simulations were first performed over pre-1982 topography mimicking the extent of the actual deposits produced and afterwards run over post-1982 topography. These eruptions have produced pyroclastic fall, surge, flow and lahar deposits. Pyroclastic flows have different volumes and Heim coefficients varying from 0.2 (pumice flows), to 0.15 (block-and-ash flows) and 0.10 (ash flows). Simulations using FLOW3D and TITAN2D indicate that pumice flows and block-and-ash flows can fill the moat area and follow main ravines up to distances of ca. 3 km from the crater, with no effect on populations around the volcano. On the other hand, more mobile ash flows related to column-collapse events can reach up to 4 km from the vent, but will always follow the same paths and still not affect surrounding populations. The energy-cone model was used to simulate the outflow of pyroclastic surges based on the 1982 event (H/L = 0.1 and 0.2), and shows that surges may reach some towns around the volcano.     

Arabian Peninsula-North Pacific Oscillation and its association with the Asian summer monsoon

Using correlation and EOF analyses on sea level pressure from 57-year NCEP-NCAR reanalysis data, the Arabian Peninsula-North Pacific Oscillation (APNPO) is identified. The APNPO reflects the co-variability between the North Pacific high and South Asian summer monsoon low. This teleconnec- tion pattern is closely related to the Asian summer monsoon. On interannual timescale, it co-varies with both the East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) and South Asian summer monsoon (SASM); on decadal timescale, it co-varies with the EASM: both exhibit two abrupt climate changes in the middle 1960s and the late 1970s respectively. The possible physical process for the connections between the APNPO and Asian summer monsoon is then explored by analyzing the APNPO-related atmospheric circulations. The results show that with a strong APNPO, the Somali Jet, SASM flow, EASM flow, and South Asian high are all enhanced, and an anomalous anticyclone is produced at the upper level over northeast China via a zonal wave train. Meanwhile, the moisture transportation to the Asian monsoon regions is also strengthened in a strong APNPO year, leading to a strong moisture convergence over India and northern China. All these changes of circulations and moisture conditions finally result in an anoma- lous Asian summer monsoon and monsoon rainfall over India and northern China. In addition, the APNPO has a good persistence from spring to summer. The spring APNPO is also significantly corre- lated with Asian summer monsoon variability. The spring APNPO might therefore provide valuable in- formation for the prediction of Asian summer monsoon.     

欧亚秋季雪盖与北半球冬季大气环流的联系

利用NOAA 提供的1973-2004 年32 年欧亚雪盖面积资料和NCEP/NCAR 再分析资料, 采用相关和合成方法对比分析了欧亚秋、冬季雪盖与北半球冬季大气环流的关系,得到了一个观测事实: 欧亚秋季雪盖与后期冬季北半球中高纬大气环流存在显著的相关关系, 尤其是与北半球冬季大气环流的最主要模态北极涛动(AO) 或北大西洋涛动(NAO) 呈显著的负相关关系, 而且欧亚秋季雪盖面积与后期冬季北半球大气环流的关系比欧亚冬季雪盖与同期大气环流的关系更好。最后提出了一个联系欧亚秋季雪盖与冬季大气环流的可能原因: 欧亚秋季雪盖异常可能是导致后期冬季北半球大气环流变化的一个主要强迫因子。     

热带西北太平洋热状况对热带气旋活动的影响

分析热带西北太平洋和南海的表层至100m的水温变化与热带气旋活动的关系。得出:(1)海洋热含量正距平年热带气旋偏多,反之偏少。(2)热带西北太平洋西部热含量增加时,副热带高压脊点偏西,移入南海的热带气旋频数增加,反之减少。(3)因热带东、西太平洋水温变化反相,南海水温变化与热带东太平洋同位相,故从太平洋移入南海的热带气旋与在南海生成的热带气旋频数的变化趋势近于相反。     

热带东太平洋表面水温和南方涛动指数的混沌学性质及其可预报性

由于地球轨道几何形状周期性的摆动,导致接收太阳辐射量的周期变化,从而引起对标志全球气候年际变化的热带太平洋表面水温和南方涛动指数周期性的研究,并得出了具有2～7a的周期,且又以3～4a为主的结果.然而进一步研究表明,地球轨道变化对气候的线性驱动,从能量上只能解释气候变化总量的一部分,从周期变化上不能很好地解释厄尔尼诺的发生和强弱,以及气候变化的复杂性等.人们逐渐接受这样的说法,太阳辐射和气候变化之间存在着尚不明了的非线性关系.     

Determining the causes for the dramatic recent fall of Lake Prespa (southwest Balkans)

Mediterranean lake–wetland systems are threatened by climate change and intensive human impacts. Individual lake responses to these threats are poorly known but urgently required to steer preservation strategies. The dramatic water-level fall (~8 m since 1987) of Lake Megali Prespa endangers this global biodiversity hotspot and the wider catchment’s water resources. Annual lake fluctuations are found to be strongly related to wet-season (Oct.–Apr.) precipitation variability, which is linked to the North Atlantic Oscillation. The lake primarily adjusts to sustained inflow changes through amending surface evaporation. Cumulative water abstraction since 1951 (~19 × 10⁶ m³/year: ~0.006% of lake volume) explains ~70% of the long-term decrease in surface evaporation; climate variability explains the remainder. Persistent low lake levels after 1995 are caused by water abstraction. Compared to 1952/53–1977/78, the period 1978/79–2003/04 experienced significant decreases in wet-season precipitation, snowfall and discharge; the number of very dry years increased.

EDITOR A. Castellarin; ASSOCIATE EDITOR D. Gerten     

BCC_CSM1.1(m)模式对于夏季亚洲-太平洋涛动的模拟

亚洲-太平洋涛动是北半球夏季亚洲大陆和北太平洋副热带地区对流层中高层扰动温度场上大尺度的东西反相的遥相关现象,其异常变化与亚洲-太平洋地区夏季风气候有着密切的联系.基于欧洲中心的ERA-40再分析资料和国家气候中心BCC_CSM1.1（m）气候系统模式多年的数值模拟结果,本文主要评估了BCC_CSM1.1（m）模式对于夏季亚洲-太平洋涛动的空间分布、指数的时间演变及与其变化所对应的亚洲地区夏季环流异常等方面的模拟能力,结果表明：BCC_CSM1.1（m）模式能够较好地模拟出北半球夏季对流层中高层扰动温度在亚-太地区中纬度存在的西高东低"跷跷板"现象;模式能够模拟出夏季亚洲-太平洋涛动指数的年际变率,但是不能模拟出该指数在20世纪60-70年代明显下降的年代际趋势;模式还能较好地模拟出亚洲-太平洋涛动高低指数年亚洲-太平洋地区夏季环流的异常：指数偏高年份,南亚高压增强,高空西风急流带和热带东风急流均加强,索马里越赤道气流增强,南亚热带季风和东亚副热带季风均增强,东亚季风低压槽加强,西北太平洋副热带高压增强,南亚和东亚北部降水增加,菲律宾地区、中国长江流域-朝鲜半岛-日本一带地区降水减少,反之亦然.     

El Niño and La Niña influence on mean river flows of southern South America in the 20th century

The influence of the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon on monthly mean river flows of 12 rivers in the extreme south of South America in the 20th century is analysed. The original dataset of each river is divided into two subsets, i.e. warm ENSO events or El Niño, and cold ENSO events or La Niña. The elements of the subsets are composites of 24 consecutive months, from January of the year when the ENSO event begins to December of the following year. The ENSO signal is analysed by comparing the monthly mean value of each subset to the long-term monthly mean. The results reveal that, in general, monthly mean El Niño (La Niña) river flows are predominantly larger (smaller) than the long-term monthly mean in the rivers studied. The anomalies are more evident during the second half of the year in which the event starts and the first months of the following year.     

Response of the Dominant Modes of Atmospheric Circulation in the Northern Hemisphere to a Projected Arctic Sea Ice Loss in 2007

This study revisits the Arctic sea ice extent(SIE) for the extended period of 1979-2015 based on satellite measurements and finds that the Arctic SIE experienced three different periods: a moderate sea ice decline period for 1979-1996, an accelerated sea ice decline period from 1997 to 2006, and large interannual variation period after 2007, when Arctic sea ice reached its tipping point reported by Livina and Lenton(2013). To address the response of atmospheric circulation to the lowest sea ice conditions with a large interannual variation, we investigated the dominant modes for large atmospheric circulation responses to the projected 2007 Arctic sea ice loss using an atmospheric general circulation model(ECHAM5). The response was obtained from two 50-yr simulations: one with a repeating seasonal cycle of specified sea ice concentration for the period of 1979-1996 and one with that of sea ice conditions in 2007. The results suggest more occurrences of a negative Arctic Oscillation(AO) response to the 2007 Arctic sea ice conditions, accompanied by an North Atlantic Oscillation(NAO)-type atmospheric circulation response under the largest sea ice loss, and more occurrences of the positive Arctic Dipole(AD) mode under the 2007 sea ice conditions, with an across-Arctic wave train pattern response to the largest sea ice loss in the Arctic. This study offers a new perspective for addressing the response of atmospheric circulation to sea ice changes after the Arctic reached the tipping point in 2007.     

中国近海鲐鱼资源时空分布与海洋净初级生产力的关系研究

海洋净初级生产力影响了浮游动植物的空间分布和丰度,因此决定了海洋渔业的潜在产量。本文根据2006-2015年7-9月中国远洋渔业数据中心提供的中国近海鲐鱼捕捞数据和海洋净初级生产力遥感数据,以单位捕捞努力量渔获量（CPUE）表征资源丰度,以经度和纬度重心表征空间分布,分析研究了鲐鱼资源丰度和空间分布与海洋净初级生产力的关系。研究结果表明,2006-2015年鲐鱼产量、CPUE、经度和纬度重心呈现明显的月份和年际变化,7-9月渔场内净初级生产力空间分布模式不同。频率分布结果表明7-9月鲐鱼对应的适宜净初级生产力浓度范围分别为300~500 mg/（m2·d）（以碳计,下同）,300~400 mg/（m2·d）,300~400 mg/（m2·d）。相关分析结果表明,鲐鱼资源丰度与适宜净初级生产力海域范围比例呈显著正相关,且鲐鱼纬度重心与适宜净初级生产力海域平均纬度呈显著正相关关系,这表明渔场内的净初级生产力大小和分布模式显著影响鲐鱼的资源丰度和渔场重心位置。在鲐鱼主要分布海域25°~30°N,120°~130°E范围内,鲐鱼资源丰度与净初级生产力大小呈显著负相关关系。此外,不同气候条件下鲐鱼渔场净初级生产力大小变化不同,2007年和2010年强拉尼娜年份以及2009年中强厄尔尼诺年份鲐鱼渔场范围海洋净初级生产力降低,但适宜的海洋净初级生产力范围增大,导致鲐鱼资源丰度上升;而2015年超强厄尔尼诺年份鲐鱼渔场范围内海洋净初级生产力上升,但适宜的海洋净初级生产力范围显著减小,因此鲐鱼资源丰度相对降低。研究表明,中国近海鲐鱼资源时空分布与海洋净初级生产力具有显著关联。