海洋中和海洋边缘巨震是调节气候恒温器理论的检验

根据美国西北大学地质科学系Seth Stein和Emile Okal最近在全球地震联合会（IRIS）网站公布的计算结果，2004年12月26日印度尼西亚苏门达腊地震震级为Mw9．3，使该地震成为有地震仪器观测史以来的排列第2的大地震（排列第一的是1960年智利MW9．5地震）。     

A hydrologic contribution to risk assessment for the Caspian Sea

The Caspian Sea (CS), the world's largest inland sea, may also be considered as large-scale limnic system. Due to strong fluctuations of its water level during the 20th century and the flooding of vast areas in a highly vulnerable coastal zone, economic and environmental risk potentials have to be considered. Since the major water input into the CS is attributed to the Volga river, the understanding of its long-term flow process is necessary for an appropriate risk assessment for the CS and its coastal area. Therefore, a top-down approach based on statistical analyses of long-term Volga flow series is pursued. For the series of annual mean flow (MQ) of the Volga river basin during the 20th century, a complex oscillation pattern was identified. Analyses for multiple gauges in the Volga river basin and Eurasian reference basins revealed that this oscillation pattern resulted from the superposition of oscillations with periods of ∼30 years (MQ) in the western part of the Volga river basin, and ∼14 years (flow volume of snowmelt events) and ∼20 years (flow volume of summer and autumn) in the eastern part of the Volga river basin (Kama river basin). Almost synchronous minima or maxima of these oscillations occurred just in the periods of substantial changes of the Caspian Sea level (CSL). It can thus be assumed that the described mechanism is fundamental for an understanding of the CSL development during the 20th century. Regarding the global climate change, it is still difficult to predict reliably the development of the CSL for the 21st century. Consequently, we suggest an ongoing, interdisciplinary research co-operation among climatology, hydrology, hydraulics, ecology and spatial data management.     

南极臭氧的短期气候变化特征

利用1957～1992年南极地区大气臭氧总量地面观测站资料，对南极地区臭氧的时空变化特征进行了研究。结果表明，虽然近35年来南极地区的大气臭氧有较明显的减小趋势，但在不同地区、时段和季节，其变化趋势也不同。近年来南极地区大气臭氧的显著亏损，主要是由南极臭氧洞的形成和发展所造成的。南极地区的大气臭氧存在明显的年振荡、准20个月和准30个月的振荡周期。臭氧变化与天文日照、平流层温度场、平流层冰晶云及人类活动排放到大气中的氟氯烃和溴化烃等污染物质有关。     

ENSO and the natural variability in the flow of tropical rivers

This paper examines the relationship between the annual discharges of the Amazon, Congo, Paran á, and Nile rivers and the sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies of the eastern and central equatorial Pacific Ocean, an index of El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Since river systems are comprehensive integrators of rainfall over large areas, accurate characterization of the flow regimes in major rivers will increase our understanding of large-scale global atmospheric dynamics. Results of this study reveal that the annual discharges of two large equatorial tropical rivers, the Amazon and the Congo, are weakly and negatively correlated with the equatorial Pacific SST anomalies with 10% of the variance in annual discharge explained by ENSO. Two smaller subtropical rivers, the Nile and the Paraná, show a correlation that is stronger by about a factor of 2. The Nile discharge is negatively correlated with the SST anomaly, whereas the Paraná river discharge shows a positive relation. The tendency for reduced rainfall/discharge over large tropical convection zones in the ENSO warm phase is attributed to global scale subsidence associated with major upwelling in the eastern Pacific Ocean.     

Postseismic deformation at El Asnam (Algeria) in the seismotectonic context of northwestern Algeria

We use a combination of seismicity. tectonic features, focal mechanisms, seismic strain and postseismic movement to study the western part of North Algeria, the El Asnam region and its surrounding area in particular. A seismotectonic map of this part of Algeria, delimited by the Mediterranean Sea in the north and the Tellian mountains in the south, was built from available geological and seismological data. An examination of this map shows that the most significant earthquakes are concentrated along tectonic features and quaternary basins elongated in an east-west direction, suggesting NNW-SSE compressional movements. During the large El Asnam earthquake of 1980 October 10, M _w= 7.1, vertical movement was measured along a 40 km northeast-southwest thrust fault. These movements were determined geodetically in 1981 with reference to a basic network previously measured in 1976. In order to control postseismic movement and to ensure the monitoring of the seismic area, a dense geodetic network has been regularly measured since 1986, both in planemetry and altimetry. The results of the altimetric remeasurements show significant vertical movements. The elevation changes of the benchmarks have been deduced from precise levelling measurements: a remarkable uplift (5.1 ± 1.9 mm yr⁻¹) of the northwestern block, during the 1986-91 period has been observed, whereas the southeastern block is seen to be relatively stable. The Sar El Marouf anticline, situated along the central segment of the El Asnam surface breaks, appears to be growing with a maximum postseismic slip rate of (9.6 ± 1.4 mm yr⁻¹). The mean uplift rates computed for the northwestern block support the view that the 1954 earthquake did not occur on the same reverse fault as the 1980 event.     

中国大陆地区的OLR与厄尔尼诺现象

本文利用美国NOAA极轨卫星观测的1974年6月—1986年2月2.5×2.5经纬度网格区月平均的OLR资料,计算分析了中国大陆地区地—气系统射出长波辐射(OLR)的基本气候特征,给出了OLR的年、季平均值及均方差的空间分布图。并计算分析了1974—1985年期间厄尔尼诺年与反厄尔尼诺年中国大陆地区OLR的差异,进行对比分析,初步得到一些有意义的现象。     

近百年来气候变化

根据当前气候变化研究中的新发现和新观点,综述了近百年来气候变化的属性成因和机制。阐述了气候是一个高度复杂的非线性系统,内部充满着错综复杂的耦合过程和反馈循环。重点介绍了CO_2含量在大气中的增加、火山喷发和海气异常等在近百年气候变化中所起的重要作用,并把气候变化与冷圈波动联系起来。     

Relationship between the southern oscillation/El Nino and rainfall in some tropical and midlatitude regions

Association of ENSO (El Nino/southern oscillation) events with annual rainfalls in S. America, Africa, India, Australia and New Zealand was found to be poor except for India and Victoria. For these two regions the relationships were one-sided i.e. most of the ENSO were associated with droughts; but many droughts were not associated with ENSO. for some rainfall series, the relationships are significant and prominent periodicities existed in the long periodicity region.     

A GLOBAL VIEW OF THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN ENSO AND TROPICAL CYCLONE FREQUENCIES

The relationship between tropical cyclone activity and ENSO is examined for the major cyclone regions using crosscorrelations,spectral analysis and composite analysis of eastern equatorial Pacific sea surface temperature,thenormalised monthly Southern Oscillation Index(SOI),and tropical cyclone frequencies.The closest relationship betweenthe 3—4 year ENSO period and tropical cyclone activity was found in the western North Pacific west of 160°E and thereseems to be significant potential for seasonal forecasting in this region based on ENSO parameters alone.No significantrelationships were found for the North Indian Ocean,and the remainder of the basins were dominated by oscillationsnear the quasi-biennial period.Physical explanations and forecasting of the seasonal variations in tropical cyclone num-bers in these regions will need to account for the QBO as well as the 3—4 year ENSO connections.     

南极海冰与南半球大气环流关系的初步探讨

本文利用１９７３—１９８２年南极海冰北界资料，分析了南极海冰平均北界（海冰范围）的变化及其与南半球大气环流变化间的联系。１９７６年前，南极海冰平均北界偏北（海冰范围扩大），而１９７７年－１９８０年，南极海冰平均北界偏南（海冰范围缩小）。与此相对应，这两个时期的南半球大气环流具有明显不同的特点。在南极海冰平均北界偏北、海冰范围扩大时期，南极高压和绕极低压带偏弱，南半球中高纬度地区槽脊位置偏西，南印度洋和南大晒洋副热带高压偏弱，南太平洋副热带西凤减弱、中纬度西风加强，而南太平洋副热带高压和印度尼西亚低压带发展，南方涛动处于正位相阶段；在南极海冰平均北界偏南、海冰范围缩小时期，则相反。分析表明，南方涛动与南极海冰之间存在相互联系，并以南极海冰超前南方涛动约２个月时的关系最好，其次是南极海冰落后南方涛动４个月。