厄尔尼诺事件与强潮汐的对应关系

北太平洋对北极的半封闭状态和南太平洋对南极的开放状态是厄尔尼诺事件发生的构造基础，强潮汐导致南北半球之间的流体对流和北太平洋海洋热能周期性向南太平洋输送。日、地、月和行星相对位置的变化决定了潮汐的强度，其变化规模与全球气候变化周期相对应。强潮汐加大垂直方向和水平方向海水的混合，使西太平洋和北太平洋暖水变冷，使东南太平洋冷水变暖，形成厄尔尼诺事件。行星冲日、近地潮、日月大潮、日食、月食的叠加所形成的强潮汐与厄尔尼诺事件发生时间有非常好的对应关系。     

全球气候背景下厄尔尼诺对中国东部汛期降水的影响

对厄尔尼诺事件进行了定义，并详细讨论了不同气候背景下的厄尔尼诺过程对中国东部地区汛期降水的影响。分析发现：20世纪50年代以来共发生了14次厄尔尼诺事件；在70年代末、80年代初，赤道太平洋的海温有一个明显升高的趋势；不同气候背景下的厄尔尼诺过程中对中国东部汛期降水存在不同的影响，但是对长江中下游及江淮地区降水的影响是一致的，一般偏少。     

Chemical composition of fumarolic gases and spring discharges from El Chichòn volcano, Mexico: causes and implications of the changes detected over the period 1998–2000

Since the March–April 1982 eruption of El Chichòn volcano, intense hydrothermal activity has characterised the 1-km-wide summit crater. This mainly consists of mud and boiling pools, fumaroles, which are mainly located in the northwestern bank of the crater lake. During the period 1998–2000, hot springs and fumaroles discharging inside the crater and from the southeastern outer flank (Agua Caliente) were collected for chemical analyses. The observed chemical fluctuations suggest that the physico-chemical boundary conditions regulating the thermodynamic equilibria of the deep rock/fluid interactions have changed with time. The chemical composition of the lake water, characterised in the period 1983–1997 by high Na⁺, Cl⁻, Ca²⁺ and SO₄²⁻ contents, experienced a dramatic change in 1998–1999, turning from a Na⁺–Cl⁻- to a Ca²⁺–SO₄²⁻-rich composition. In June 2000, a relatively sharp increase in Na⁺ and Cl⁻ contents was observed. At the same time, SO₂/H₂S ratios and H₂ and CO contents in most gas discharges increased with respect to the previous two years of observations, suggesting either a new input of deep-seated fluids or local variations of the more surficial hydrothermal system. Migration of gas manifestations, enhanced number of emission spots and variations in both gas discharge flux and outlet temperatures of the main fluid manifestations were also recorded. The magmatic-hydrothermal system of El Chichòn is probably related to interaction processes between a deep magmatic source and a surficial cold aquifer; an important role may also be played by the interaction of the deep fluids with the volcanic rocks and the sedimentary (limestone and evaporites) basement. The chemical and physical changes recorded in 1998–2000 were possibly due to variations in the permeability of the conduit system feeding the fluid discharges at surface, as testified by the migration of gas and water emanations. Two different scenarios can be put forward for the volcanic evolution of El Chichòn: (1) build-up of an infra-crater dome that may imply a future eruption in terms of tens to hundreds of years; (2) minor phreatic–phreatomagmatic events whose prediction and timing is more difficult to constrain. This suggests that, unlike the diminished volcanic activity at El Chichòn after the 1982 paroxistic event, the volcano-hydrothermal fluid discharges need to be more constantly monitored with regular and more frequent geochemical sampling and, at the same time, a permanent network of seismic stations should be installed.     

厄尔尼诺事件的随机特征

厄尔尼诺事件与强潮汐、日食、月食、火山、地震以及洋流冷暖循环相关．统计资料表明，厄尔尼诺事件的发生具有明显的随机特征，当各因素的最大值相互叠加时，就会发生强厄尔尼诺事件．厄尔尼诺与火山地震活动密切相关，具有区域性强，能量变化大，活动频繁，有规律但无严格周期等特点．厄尔尼诺事件是多种因素形成的。因而更具有随机特征．     

Characteristics of low frequency oscillations of the atmosphere-ocean coupling

The low frequency oscillation of latent heat flux over the tropical oceans has been studied. The NCEP reanalyzed fields of wind and humidity alongwith Reynolds SST are used to compute the instantaneous as well as monthly mean surface latent heat fluxes (LHF) for the year 1999. The procedure of LHF computation is based on bulk method. Spectral analysis shows that significant energy is contained in Madden Julian Oscillation band in the winds, SST, moisture and in the latent heat flux. The global distribution of wind, humidity, SST and LHF oscillation on the time scale of 30–50 days are analyzed. Maximum amplitude of oscillation on this time scale in all the above mentioned parameters were found over the Indian Ocean. The fluctuation of surface wind speed and moisture controls the latent heat flux on this time scale. The fluctuation of SST on this time scale does not seem to be important over most of the oceans.     

A study of the possible extended influence of the ENSO phenomenon

El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is well known to have a worldwide impact, in particular on streamflows. As an illustration, we found a good correlation (～0.47, 5-month time delay) between the ENSO activity and the discharge of the main rivers in French Guiana. However, this calculation was made between climatic and hydrological processes at ‘isolated precise moments’. Using a new method of time series analysis, we considered the ENSO and Atlantic Ocean/river discharge correlation integrated over time. This method shows, with more than 99% confidence level, new possible delayed and combined influences between the phenomena (respectively ～20 and 40 months for ENSO and Atlantic Ocean influences). To cite this article: C. Gaucherel, C. R. Geoscience 336 (2004).     

Small fast-moving flow-like landslides in volcanic deposits: The 2001 Las Colinas Landslide (El Salvador)

Fast-moving landslides are one of the most significant dangers deriving from slope instabilities. Landslides involving large volumes can develop in rock or debris avalanches with extreme mobility and enormous destructiveness. Nevertheless, a relevant number of casualties and damages derive from small, fast-moving landslides with flow-like behaviour.

The Las Colinas landslide occurred at Santa Tecla (El Salvador, Central America) during a strong earthquake. It slid off the northern flank of the Bálsamo ridge, and resulted in almost 500 casualties and can be considered one of the most destructive landslides ever known. Earthquake shaking was amplified by the rock mass and the steep ridge topography.

We collected original geological, geomorphological and geophysical data in the Cordillera del Bálsamo area. The involved materials, ranging from lapilli to tuff layers of different strength, have been mapped and characterized.

Slope stability analyses have been performed both under static and dynamic conditions through limit equilibrium and finite element methods.

Hazard zonation for this type of landslides requires the forecast of the movement velocity and final deposition area. We used a fully two-dimensional FEM model to simulate landslide spreading downslope. The developed code allows the use of different constitutive models and yield rules with the possibility to model and study internal deformation of the landslide mass, as well material entrainment and deposition.     

近30年南极海冰的变化特征

采用NCEP的1973-2002年南极海冰密集度资料,对近30年南极海冰冰密集度的季节变化、年际变化及其与南极海冰涛动指数的长期变化关系进行了分析研究。结果表明,南极海冰的季节变化特点是海冰融化速度远大于凝结速度,而北极海冰融化速度与凝结速度基本相同。南极海冰存在着明显的年际变化,海冰面积指数呈增加趋势,年平均倾向率为28/10a。而北极海冰年际变化则相反,呈减少趋势,年平均面积指数的倾向率-3.5/10a。南极海冰涛动指数能代表南极地区近1/3的海水变化,是南极海冰变化的重要指数,具有10年、3-5年和2年左右的准振荡周期。     

连续18年“暖冬”终结的原因

季林的气候潮汐循环说和郭增建的海震调温说,阐明了冷气候、强潮汐和强震相互对应的物理机制,对2000年地球进入拉马德雷冷位相后的气候预测有重大科学意义。中国连续18年暖冬的终结是2000年地球进入拉马德雷冷位相和2004年12月26日印尼发生了地震海啸的合理结果。     

The anomalous variation of the lightning activity in southern China during the 1997/98 El Nio event

The El Ni?o Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is a cli- mate anomaly responsible for worldwide weather im- pacts ranging from droughts to floods. It is of scien- tific importance to clarify the influences of the 1997/98 El Ni?o event (for simplicity, named the ENSO) on the regional and global lightning activity. Goodman et al.[1] noticed that during the El Ni?o ma- ture phase from December 1997 to February 1998, the total lightning frequencies recorded by LIS, lightning days and lightning ho…