1959~2009 年宁夏极端温度阈值变化及其与AO指数相关分析

以1959~2009年宁夏10个测站的逐日最高和最低气温资料,运用百分位法定义不同测站的逐年极端高、低温阈值,研究了宁夏近51 a来极端温度的变化特征;通过Mann-Kendall检验得出宁夏各气象站点温度发生突变的年份;并运用Pearson相关系数分析探讨极端温度阈值与AO的相关关系。结果表明：① 宁夏极端高温、低温阈值均呈极显著上升趋势,但极端低温阈值上升趋势更显著;② 极端高温阈值北高南低,极端低温阈值南高北低;③ 宁夏极端低温阈值发生突变的时间集中在20世纪80年代左右,极端高温阈值的突变时间相对较晚;④极端高温阈值与夏季AO指数相关性不显著,极端低温阈值与冬季ＡＯ指数呈显著正相关性,北极涛动对宁夏冬季低温的影响较大。     

A New Approach for Classifying Two Types of El Nino Events

In recent decades, the typical El Nio events with the warmest SSTs in the tropical eastern Pacific have become less common, and a different of El Nio with the warmest SSTs in the central Pacific, which is flanked on the east and west by cooler SSTs, has become more fre-quent. The more recent type of El Nio was referred to as central Pacific El Nio, warm pool El Nio, or dateline El Nio, or the El Nio Modoki. Central Pacific El Nio links to a different tropical-to-extratropical teleconnection and exerts different impacts on climate, and several classification approaches have been proposed. In this study, a new classification approach is proposed, which is based on the linear combination (sum or difference) of the two leading Empirical Orthogonal Functions (EOFs) of tropical Pacific Ocean sea surface temperature anomaly (SSTA), and the typical El Ni o index (TENI) and the central El Nio index (CENI) are able to be derived by projecting the observed SSTA onto these combinations. This classification not only reflects the characteristics of non-orthogonality between the two types of events but also yields one period peaking at approximate two to seven years. In particular, this classification can distin-guish the different impacts of the two types of events on rainfall in the following summer in East China. The typical El Nio events tend to induce intensified rainfall in the Yangtze River valley, whereas the central Pacific El Nio tends to induce intensified rainfall in the Huaihe River valley. Thus, the present approach may be appropriate for studying the impact of different types of El Nio on the East Asian climate.     

The Amplitude-Duration Relation of Observed El Nino Events

The authors demonstrate that the El Ni o events in the pre-and post-1976 periods show two ampli-tude-duration relations. One is that the stronger El Ni o events have longer durations, which is robust for the moderate El Ni o events; the other is that the stronger El Ni o events have shorter durations but for strong El Nio events. By estimating the sign and amplitude of the nonlinear dynamical heating (NDH) anomalies, the authors illustrate that the NDH anomalies are negligible for moderate El Nio events but large for strong El Nio events. In particular, the large NDH anomalies for strong El Nio events are positive during the growth and mature phases, which favor warmer El Nio events. During the decay phase, however, the negative NDH anomalies start to arise and become increasingly significant with the evolution of the El Nio events, in which the negative NDH anomalies dampen the sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTA) and cause the El Nio events to reach the SST normal state earlier. This pattern suggests that the nonlinearity tends to increase the intensities of strong El Nio events and shorten their duration, which, together with the previous results showing a positive correlation between the strength of El Nio events and the significance of the effect of nonlinear advection on the events (especially the suppression of nonlinearity on the SSTA during the decay phase), shows that the strong El Nio events tend to have the amplitude-duration relation of the stronger El Nio events with shorter durations. This result also lends support to the assertion that moderate El Nio events possess the amplitude-duration relation of stronger El Nio events with longer durations.     

Low-frequency coupled atmosphere-ocean variability in the southern Indian Ocean

The low-frequency atmosphere-ocean coupled variability of the southern Indian Ocean(SIO) was investigated using observation data over 1958-2010.These data were obtained from ECMWF for sea level pressure(SLP) and wind,from NCEP/NCAR for heat fluxes,and from the Hadley Center for SST.To obtain the coupled air-sea variability,we performed SVD analyses on SST and SLP.The primary coupled mode represents 43% of the total square covariance and is featured by weak westerly winds along 45-30 S.This weakened subtropical anticyclone forces fluctuations in a well-known subtropical dipole structure in the SST via wind-induced processes.The SST changes in response to atmosphere forcing and is predictable with a lead-time of 1-2 months.Atmosphere-ocean coupling of this mode is strongest during the austral summer.Its principle component is characterized by mixed interannual and interdecadal fluctuations.There is a strong relationship between the first mode and Antarctic Oscillation(AAO).The AAO can influence the coupled processes in the SIO by modulating the subtropical high.The second mode,accounting for 30% of the total square covariance,represents a 25-year period interdecadal oscillation in the strength of the subtropical anticyclone that is accompanied by fluctuations of a monopole structure in the SST along the 35-25 S band.It is caused by subsidence of the atmosphere.The present study also shows that physical processes of both local thermodynamic and ocean circulation in the SIO have a crucial role in the formation of the atmosphere-ocean covariability.     

The COWL Pattern Identified with a Large AO Index and Its Impact on Annular Surface Temperature Anomalies

In this study, the cold ocean/warm land (COWL) pattern was identified from the leading empirical orthogonal function (EOF) of the monthly 1000-hPa geopotential height field poleward of 20 N. Traditionally, the leading EOF has been recognized as the Arctic Oscillation (AO), or Northern Annular Mode (NAM), which causes annular surface air temperature (SAT) anomalies over high-latitude regions of the Northern Hemisphere. A new finding of the present study is that the total AO events defined by the large AO index actually include a distinct type of events that are characterized by a less-annular spatial structure, i.e., the COWL pattern, which shows an NAO-like distribution in the Atlantic sector and a center of action over the North Pacific with the same sign as that over the Arctic. In addition, unlike canonical AO events, the COWL events also show a less-annular pattern in the stratosphere. Statistically, at least one-third of the AO events can be categorized as the COWL events. The SAT anomalies associated with the COWL pattern have an annular distribution over the high-latitude region of the two continents in the Northern Hemisphere. In contrast, if the COWL events are removed from the total AO events, the remainder shows less annular SAT anomalies. Thus, the typical annular SAT anomalies associated with AO events are in large part due to the contribution of the COWL pattern. Furthermore, the monthly variability and the interannual variability of all the AO events are equally important.     

热带大气季节内振荡(MJO)实时监测预测业务

参考目前国际上普遍认可的Wheeler和Hendon设计的MJO监测指标,设计了适合开展实时业务监测的MJO计算方法,初步在国家气候中心建立了逐日的MJO实时监测业务,通过与国外同类监测结果的比较分析表明,监测指标可以很好地描述MJO的强度和传播特征,与国外同类监测产品有很好的一致性。另外,引入了两种统计方法进行了针对MJO指数的实时预测,对预测结果的检验表明,对MJO在两周内有较好的预测技巧,其中利用滞后线性回归方法（PCL）的预测技巧要高于自回归模型（ARM）。     

Quantitative assessment of precipitation seasonality and summer surface wetness using ombrotrophic sediments from an Arctic Norwegian peatland

Seasonality of precipitation is an important yet elusive climate parameter in paleoclimatological reconstructions. This parameter can be inferred qualitatively from pollen and other paleoecological methods, but is difficult to assess quantitatively. Here, we have assessed seasonality of precipitation and summer surface wetness using compound specific hydrogen and carbon isotope ratios of vascular plant leaf waxes and Sphagnum biomarkers extracted from the sediments of an ombrotrophic peatland, Bøstad Bog, Nordland, Norway. Our reconstructed precipitation seasonality and surface wetness are consistent with regional vegetation reconstructions. During the early Holocene, 11.5–7.5 ka, Fennoscandia experienced a cool, moist climate. The middle Holocene, 7.5–5.5 ka, was warm and dry, transitioning towards cooler and wetter conditions from the mid-Holocene to the present. Changes in seasonality of precipitation during the Holocene show significant coherence with changes in sea surface temperature in the Norwegian Sea, with higher SST corresponding to greater percentage of winter precipitation. Both high SST in the Norwegian Sea and increased moisture delivery to northern Europe during winter are correlated with a strong gradient between the subpolar low and subtropical high over the North Atlantic (positive North Atlantic Oscillation).     

ITCZ rather than ENSO signature for abrupt climate changes across the tropical Pacific?

Latitudinal movements of the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ), analogous to its present-day seasonal shifts, and El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO)-type variability both potentially impacted rainfall changes at the millennial timescale during the last glacial period. In this study we compare tropical Pacific sedimentary records of paleoprecipitation to decipher which climate mechanism was responsible for the past rainfall changes. We find that latitudinal movements of the ITCZ are consistent with the observed rainfall patterns, challenging the ENSO hypothesis for explaining the rapid rainfall changes at low latitudes. The ITCZ-related mechanism appears to reflect large-scale atmospheric rearrangements over the tropical belt, with a pronounced Heinrich-Dansgaard/Oeschger signature. This observation is coherent with the simulated tropical rainfall anomalies induced by a weakening of the Atlantic thermohaline circulation in modeling experiments.     

石笋氧同位素指示东亚季风大尺度环流特征

利用湖北清江和尚洞的两支具有精确年代的年层石笋,建立了20世纪逐年的石笋氧同位素序列,讨论东亚季风石笋氧同位素的气候指示意义。与现代气象观测资料对比,发现近100年来和尚洞石笋 δ18O 与当地年总降水量和年均温度的相关性并不显著,但与指示东亚季风环流特征的西太平洋副热带高压指数(WPSH)以及相对应的太平洋年代际振荡指数(PDO)相关性好。在年际和年代际尺度上,当太平洋年代际振荡处于正(负)相位时,副热带高压加强(减弱),石笋的 δ18O 相对偏正(负)。因而,石笋 δ18O 反映了东亚季风大尺度环流特征。