中国地震预报论坛2023年度学术交流大会在四川康定召开

中国地震学会地震预报专业委员会和四川省地震局于2023年8月15—19日在四川省康定市联合举办了中国地震预报论坛2023年度学术交流大会,来自全国地震行业内、外8所大学、4个中科院直属科研院所与23个地震行业直属科研院所及省市级分支机构共35个单位的100余名代表参加了此次会议。学术交流设置了12个专题;会前征集到论文96篇,会期交流报告78个,其中口头报告23个,张贴展板55个;23个口头报告中,大会特邀报告6个;从55个张贴报告中,评选出优秀报告6个,最佳设计创意报告1个。为了配合活断层野外识别的科普培训,本次大会将原计划以 “制约地震三要素的因素与地震三要素预报的瓶颈问题” 为主题的大会圆桌讨论改成了 “鲜水河断裂带高震级危险性分析” 的专题培训讲座,讲座之后再适时举行了 “如何强化高危险区的临震监测与临震跟踪预报能力” 的专题讨论。对2022年泸定6.8级地震的交流讨论提出了新的科学问题。大会不仅重视学术交流,还兼顾了科学传播的普及,利用当地的科普资源,因地制宜地组织了为期一天的鲜水河断裂带活动特征的野外识别科普培训。地震预报论坛学术交流大会全体与会代表参加了此次野外实训活动,活动中邀请了著名的鲜水河断裂带活动特征研究专家现场授课,增强了地震预报与地震地质领域的跨学科交流,强化了学术交流的效果。

     

Management and conservation at the International Whaling Commission: A dichotomy sandwiched within a shifting baseline

The International Whaling Commission's (IWC) Scientific Committee provides important advice to the IWC on a large variety of cetacean species, sub-species and populations and the issues affecting them. Cetaceans are facing increasing, non-whaling-related threats, and the Scientific Committee (SC), in accordance with the Commission's requests, has strengthened its conservation-oriented research work. A selection of the reports of the Scientific Committee from between 1986 and 2012 was assessed for its: (i) fundamental research; (ii) management; (iii) conservation; and (iv) administrative content, and to identify potential trends over time. Recommendations and their urgency were also examined, as implied from the language used by the SC in its reports. The analysis showed that the work of the Scientific Committee has increasingly been oriented towards conservation issues over the period reviewed, but at the same time this conservation work has received little funding. Increased support for conservation-related research projects is warranted to promote the long-term survival of cetaceans. Based on this review of the content and focus of the Committee reports, the analysis suggested that its issued advice be made clearer, whenever possible, and governments are urged to give due consideration to this science-based advice particularly when urgent conservation actions are needed. In addition, more consistent funding of the IWC's conservation-related research should be pursued to improve international conservation outputs regarding cetacean populations.     

A naive uncertainty model for measuring operational risks faced by financial institutions

When insufficient data are available for measuring operational risk faced by a financial institute, most of the models depending on the probability theory are failure. Differing from that we use a probability distribution to depict random uncertainty, in this paper we use a number to represent the naive uncertainty in a phase serving for operational risk identification. The simplest form of the naive uncertainty model for measuring operational risk with multiple phases is the weighted mean with the uncertainties. It is also valid when we have a rough judgment for the uncertainties with intervals or fuzzy values. In this paper, we give a calculation case in lending operational risk to demonstrate the model validity.     

谈新形势下地震科技期刊的编辑与发展

地震科技期刊作为地震科研成果及地震科技信息传播与交流的载体和平台,对促进地震科学的发展起着重要的作用。随着出版界体制机制改革的不断深入以及期刊出版的数字化、网络化和国际化,地震科技期刊面临着新的任务与挑战。面对新形势,从地震科技期刊生存发展应当引起注意的几个问题,尤其在地震科技期刊编辑人才队伍建设方面提出了一些意见和建议。认为,要将地震科技期刊做大做强,必须高度重视、加大力度扶持编辑人才队伍的建设。     

《地质学报》(英文版)、《地质学报》(中文版)、《地质论评》第40届编委会在京成立

正2018年12月22日,中国地质学会主办的《地质学报》(英文版)、《地质学报》(中文版)和《地质论评》第40届编委会成立大会及进一步提升三刊质量讨论会在北京召开。中国地质学会常务副理事长兼秘书长李金发,三刊主编杨文采院士、侯增谦院士、杨经绥院士,三刊第40届副主编及编委金之钧院士、郝芳院士、李家彪院士等,三刊编辑部编辑以及中国地质学会秘书处工作人员等共120余人出席会议。中国地质学会副理事长兼常务副秘书长朱立新主持了三刊     

Assessment Methodology and Results From the Canadian Gas Potential Committee 2001 Report

Since 1991 volunteers from the Canadian Gas Potential Committee (CGPC) have conducted assessments of undiscovered gas potential in Canada. Reports were published in 1997 and 2001. The 2001 CGPC report assessed all established and some conceptual exploration plays in Canada and incorporated data from about 29,000 discovered gas pools and gas fields. Mainly year-end 1998 data were used in the analysis of 107 established exploration plays. The CGPC assessed gas in place without using economic cut offs. Estimates of nominal marketable gas were made, based on the ratio between gas in place and marketable gas in discovered pools. Only part of the estimated nominal marketable gas actually will be available, primarily because of restrictions on access to exploration and the small size of many accumulations. Most plays were assessed using the Petrimes program where it could be applied. Arps-Roberts assessments were made on plays where too many discovered pools were present to use the Petrimes program. Arps-Roberts assessments were corrected for economic truncation of the discovered pool sample. Several methods for making such corrections were tried and examples of the results are shown and compared with results from Petrimes. In addition to assessments of established plays, 12 conceptual plays, where no discoveries have been made, were assessed using Petrimes subjective methodology. An additional 65 conceptual plays were recognized, discussed, and ranked without making a quantitative assessment. No nominal marketable gas was attributed to conceptual plays because of the high risk of failure in such plays. Nonconventional gas in the form of coalbed methane, gas hydrates, tight gas, and shale gas are discussed, but no nominal marketable gas is attributed to those sources pending successful completion of pilot study projects designed to demonstrate commercially viable production. Conventional gas resources in Canada include 340 Tcf of gas in place in discovered pools and fields and 252 Tcf of undiscovered gas in place. Remaining nominal marketable gas includes 96 Tcf in discovered pools and fields and 138 Tcf of undiscovered nominal marketable gas. The Western Canada Sedimentary Basin holds 61% of the remaining nominal marketable gas. Future discoveries from that area will be mainly in pools smaller than 2.5 Bcf of marketable gas and increasing levels of exploratory drilling will be required to harvest this undiscovered resource. A pragmatic, geologically focussed approach to the assessment of undiscovered gas potential by the CGPC provides a sound basis for future exploration and development planning. Peer reviewed assessment on a play-by-play basis for entire basins provides both detailed play information and the ability to evaluate new exploration results and their impact on overall potential.     

《地质论评》第40届编辑委员会

正~~     

Oceanographic Research Vessel Sharing Plan—A Significant Creation of the National Natural Science Foundation of China

To settle the difficulties of the shortage of oceanographic research vessels in our country, the National Natural Science Foundation Committee of China founded Oceanographic Research Vessel Sharing Plan in 2009. It is aimed at enhancing efficiency and optimization of the vessel resources,and coordinating the use demands of vessels for the different foundation projects and the efficient use of the research vessels. We have summarized the achievements made in the Plan from 2010 to 2014, as well as the use system of the research vessels sharing, the specific operating mode ,the organization and the management framework of the Plan. In the end, we put forward our suggestions on the improvement of the Plan after the primary analysis of the present situation of the sharing of the survey data and the existing problems.