双圆盾构施工引起邻近地下管线附加荷载的分析

利用弹性力学的Mindlin解,对孙统立公式进行修正,推导得到双圆盾构正面附加推力和盾壳摩擦力引起的土体附加应力计算公式。假定土体为Winkler模型,采用随机介质理论,推导得到土体损失引起的竖向土体附加应力计算公式。研究了双圆盾构施工在邻近垂直交叉地下管线上引起的附加荷载大小及分布规律。研究结果表明：双圆盾构盾壳摩擦力引起的地下管线附加荷载较大;正面附加推力引起的附加荷载较小,可忽略;竖向附加荷载主要由土体损失引起,最大值一般出现在中轴线上方,当地下管线与盾构之间距离较小时,附加荷载最大值出现在左右单圆圆心附近的位置。     

双圆盾构隧道施工对平行既有隧道的影响分析

对双圆（DOT）盾构隧道周围土体采用椭圆形非等量径向位移模式,在镜像法基本原理上,推导土体损失引起的附加应力计算公式,研究双圆盾构正面附加推力、双圆盾构机与土体之间的摩擦力以及土体损失在平行既有隧道上引起的总的附加荷载的分布规律。研究结果表明,附加荷载的变化规律与双圆盾构机和邻近平行隧道的相对位置密切相关,是一个三维问题;随着双圆盾构机开挖面通过前后,附加荷载由压力变为拉力;土体损失是引起相邻隧道上附加荷载的主要因素,其次分别是盾壳摩擦力和正面附加推力;已建隧道受到的附加荷载变化规律与其和双圆盾构机的净距 S 密切相关,随着 S 的减 小,附加荷载急剧增大;随着平行既有隧道轴线埋深的变化,在轴线位置处,双圆盾构机对平行既有隧道的附加荷载影响最大。     

Mass loss from “Hot Jupiters”—Implications for CoRoT discoveries, Part II: Long time thermal atmospheric evaporation modeling

We investigate the efficiency of the atmospheric mass loss due to hydrodynamic blow-off over the lifetime of the exoplanet HD209458b by studying numerically its hydrogen wind for host star X-ray and EUV (XUV) fluxes between 1 and 100 times that of the present Sun. We apply a time-dependent numerical algorithm which is able to solve the system of hydrodynamic equations straight through the transonic point of the flow including Roche lobe effects. The mass loss rates are calculated as functions of the absorbed energy in the thermosphere. Depending on the heating efficiency for a hydrogen-rich thermosphere the maximum temperature obtained in our study at 1.5R_pl by neglecting IR cooling is about 5000-10,000 K for heating efficiencies of 10% and 60%, respectively. We find that the upper atmosphere of HD209458b experiences hydrodynamic blow-off even at such low temperatures if one does not neglect gravitational effects caused by the proximity of the planet to its Roche lobe boundary. Depending on the heating efficiency, we find from the solution of the hydrodynamic equations of mass, momentum, and energy balance that energy-limited mass loss rate estimations overestimate the realistic mass loss rate at present time for HD209458b by several times. Using the maximum heating efficiency for hydrogen-rich atmospheres of 60% we find that HD209458b may experience an atmospheric mass loss rate at present time of about . The mass loss rate evolves to higher values for higher XUV fluxes expected during the early period of the planet's host star evolution, reaching values of several times . The integrated mass loss is found to be between 1.8% and 4.4% of the present mass of HD209458b. We found that the influence of the stellar tidal forces on atmospheric loss (the Roche lobe effect) is not significant at 0.045 AU. For a similar exoplanet, but at closer orbital distances , the combined effect of the Roche lobe and the high XUV radiation result in much higher thermal loss rates of about and even more for early stages. This leads to a total loss over 4 Gyr of 27.5% of the planetary mass.     

Observations of temperatures in some Rotorua district lakes

A preliminary study has been made of temperatures in some of the lakes of the Rotorua district, in the North Island of New Zealand. Seasonal and diurnal variations are discussed. Two main thermal structure types are present. One, in which stratification is irregular or absent, is present in lakes that are relatively shallow and large in area, and the other, in which there is thermal Stratification from early summer to early winter, is present in lakes that are comparatively deep and large in area or else of medium depth and size.     

ASSESSMENT ON INDIRECT ECONOMIC LOSS OF WENCHUAN EARTHQUAKE DISASTER BASED ON INPUT-OUTPUT ANALYSIS

The scientific and reasonable assessment of disaster loss is the basic work for disaster relief and post-disaster reconstruction.Indirect economic loss is also an important part of scientific assessment for disaster influence.Taking the stricken area of 2008 Wenchuan earthquake in Sichuan as an example,this paper preliminarily analyzed the sections-related indirect economic loss resulting from Wenchuan earthquake by the methods of input-output analysis.The results show that,1) the sections-related indirect economic loss of Wenchuan earthquake reached up to 2 545.32 billion Yuan,which is as much as 3 times the direct economic loss in Sichuan Province.The direct economic loss does not evaluate the effects of Wenchuan earthquake disaster completely,and the indirect economic loss is an inseparable part for the systematic assessment of disaster influence.2) The characteristics of economic losses are not the same among different sectors in Sichuan.The indirect economic losses of industry and other services are the biggest in all sectors of Sichuan.However,the ratios of indirect and direct economic loss in industry,agriculture,construction are the highest,which is over 14.60,8.70 and 7.11,respectively.3) Although the uncertainty exists in the assessment result due to the limitation of input-output model,input-output analysis is still the most wildly used method to assess the indirect economic loss of natural hazard.Furthermore,the data accuracy is also an important factor influencing the economic loss assessment of natural hazard.     

天津市面向震害快速评估的房屋和人口空间化研究*

以天津市的大比例尺房屋空间数据和第六次人口普查数据为基础,利用GIS空间分析功能,模拟了天津市房屋和人口空间分布,产出1km格网的房屋数据和分时段人口公里格网数据。经检验,模拟的房屋和人口数据达到了较高精度,能够较准确地表达行政单元内部的房屋和人口空间分布。将模拟结果应用到设定地震震害评估中,与基于平均密度法的评估结果对比,表明基于公里格网评估的结果更为合理,减少了由于房屋和人口分布不均匀造成的误差,能够为地震应急工作提供可靠的数据支撑。     

城市扩张情景模拟及对城市形态与体系的影响——以广西西江经济带为例

针对区域层面城市扩张模拟研究的缺失,以快速城市化的广西西江经济带为案例区,构建了生态重要性和土地开发建设适宜性两种扩张情景;借助最小累积阻力模型对经济带内主要城市的扩张进行情景模拟,进而分析城市扩张对其形态和位序-规模特征的影响,揭示不同情境间的差异。结果表明,随着扩张强度增加,城市形态趋于紧凑和稳定,城市位序-规模发生变化。对比两种情景,生态重要性情境下,新增建设用地的分配相对均匀,首位城市发生变化,首位度明显下降,城市扩张方式多样,形态较为复杂、松散,内部各城市之间形状差异较大;土地开发建设适宜性情景下,大中城市扩张速度较快,首位城市保持不变,其首位度略有下降,城市扩张以外延式和填充式扩张为主,形态相对紧凑、规则,各城市间形状差异较小。研究认为基于生态重要性的城市扩张情景有利于减少重要生态空间占用、维护城市生态系统健康、合理调控城市体系结构,是一种更加可持续的扩张方式。     

基于EOF和GWR模型的中原经济区经济增长的时空分析

结合中原经济区“三化”协调发展的国家战略,基于自然正交函数（EOF）分析中原经济区经济增长的时空特征,借助地理加权回归（GWR）揭示其驱动力。EOF第一模态分析表明：中原经济区经济增长的空间分布沿京广线的东西两侧反相分布,京广线以西增长快于京广线以东;时间系数表现出明显的年际特征,且东、西两部分有近10 年的循环周期。第二模态反映局部区域经济增长的年际异常,其呈西南、东北反相空间分布;时间系数年际波动明显。GWR分析发现：驱动力的作用在空间上存在差异。农民人均纯收入对中原经济区经济增长的影响最大,呈正相关关系。资源禀赋是第二大影响因素,也呈正相关关系。经济区位是第三大影响因素,其他因素依次是第二产业、城市化和农业机械总动力。影响中原经济区经济增长的因素有明显的经度地带性规律。因此,制定区域发展政策时,要考虑不同行政区的特殊性。     

长江经济带经济增长与资源环境的协同效应及其驱动力分析

基于人口、资源、环境与经济、社会协调发展的视角,引入生态系统服务价值评价方法构建资源环境成本核算模型以及经济增长与资源环境的协调发展度、相对协调发展度模型,对长江经济带区域经济增长与资源环境的协同效应进行分析、并以偏最小二乘回归方法对其驱动因素进行解析。计算出1983–2012年长江经济带7省2市资源环境成本由4736.55×10^12元攀升至15 359.45×10^12元、占全国同期比重由31.1%降至19.7%,协调发展度由0.295升至1.506,各时段相对协调发展度均高于全国平均水平;1983、1993、2003年3个时段驱动长江经济带区域经济增长与资源环境协调发展的主要因素是资源环境成本相对较低,研究区对推动我国经济、社会协调发展均做出较大贡献;2012年以后随着我国第一、三产业增加值整体上持续增加,长江经济带的比较优势趋于弱化。未来,长江经济带有关省市应积极完善主体功能区规划实施细则,抓住机遇持续推进产业结构调整,通过各个层面实施生态恢复补偿、提高资源利用效率、降低环境损失成本等提高经济发展质量,进一步促进区域经济增长与资源、环境协调发展。     

Weighing the importance of model uncertainty against parameter uncertainty in earthquake loss assessments

Epistemic uncertainties can be classified into two major categories: parameter and model. While the first one stems from the difficulties in estimating the values of input model parameters, the second comes from the difficulties in selecting the appropriate type of model. Investigating their combined effects and ranking each of them in terms of their influence on the predicted losses can be useful in guiding future investigations. In this context, we propose a strategy relying on variance-based global sensitivity analysis, which is demonstrated using an earthquake loss assessment for Pointe-à-Pitre (Guadeloupe, France). For the considered assumptions, we show: that uncertainty of losses would be greatly reduced if all the models could be unambiguously selected; and that the most influential source of uncertainty (whether of parameter or model type) corresponds to the seismic activity group. Finally, a sampling strategy was proposed to test the influence of the experts’ weights on models and on the assumed coefficients of variation of parameter uncertainty. The former influenced the sensitivity measures of the model uncertainties, whereas the latter could completely change the importance rank of the uncertainties associated to the vulnerability assessment step.