天山北坡经济带“组团”点轴城镇空间结构研究

以1990-2007年天山北坡城镇GDP、土地、人口、交通数据为资料,根据城镇空间分布“最近邻点指数”理论,空间相互作用和分形理论,分析了天山北坡城镇空间分布特征,构建了绿洲城镇相互作用强度判断模型,提出并论证了“组团”点-轴空间结构模式优越性。研究发现:①天山北坡经济带城镇人口规模和经济规模在空间结构呈现3个城镇高密集区,两个城镇稀疏区特征;②传统绿洲城镇空间结构下,城镇接受中心城市辐射差异很大,不利于城镇整体发展;③以“乌鲁木齐都市圈”为点的“组团”点-轴空间结构模式,有利于中心组团城镇对其他城镇的辐射;④以“５组团”为点的点-轴模式有利于组团之间的相互作用,有利于城镇发展;⑤天山北坡经济带向伊犁河谷延伸有利于中心组团城镇对其他组团城镇的辐射。     

基于VSD模型的区域生态系统脆弱性评价——以广西西江经济带为例(英文)

生态系统脆弱性受到自然与人文因素双重影响。以广西西江经济带为例,采用VSD模型,通过暴露度、敏感性和适应能力分解脆弱性,构建包含自然和人为因素的25指标的评价体系,开展脆弱性评价与分区。结果表明,不脆弱区、一般区、脆弱区、很脆弱区和极脆弱区分别占11.31%、22.63%、27.60%、24.39%和14.07%,东西部地区脆弱性较高,中部地区脆弱性较低;自然因素导致的脆弱区主要分布于东西部山区,人为因素主导的脆弱区分布于中部盆地的城镇及其周边;经济带约53%的建设用地分布于很脆弱区和脆弱区,未来新增建设用地需要重点向不脆弱区和一般区转移。根据分区结果和诱因差异,提出了不同类型区开发与保护的相关建议。     

珠海经济开发战略初探

珠海在坚持以工业为主的同时，不能忽视剖汇农业及其深度加工业的发展，旅游业在特区经济中仍占有十分重要的地位。加强与澳门的全面经济协作，建设共同使用的供水、供电、供气、机场、深水港、高速公路、铁路等基础设施，并进一步台作开发地处珠澳边境的湾仔，符台积方利益，有利于互相促进、共同繁荣。珠海特区可考虑易名为中山特区。     

淮海经济区城市效率时空格局分析

尝试采用DEA方法首先对淮海经济区2006年20个地级城市的效率进行测评,进而选取1995年和2005年两个年份,从动静结合角度对近10年来淮海经济区城市效率的时空格局及其演化模式进行分析。结果发现:目前淮海经济区城市效率相对较高,呈皖北鲁南高、苏北豫东低的空间格局;1995～2005年10年间,淮海经济区以徐州为中心的城市高效率群已初步形成,总体呈现东进南拓的发展态势;城市效率东部继续加强,西部开始崛起,以徐州为中心的城市高效率群还不稳定。近11年来,影响淮海经济区城市效率的主要因素是纯技术效率。因此,从纯技术效率分析,淮海经济区城市效率具有很大的提高潜力。     

探索不同地区经济发展与建筑物结构形式分布的相关性

将引入相似度的概念探索验证不同地区经济发展与建筑结构形式分布的相关性,将不同地区的社会经济发展、建筑物类型特征的相似度给出量化指标,进而为下一步的建筑物基础数据的更新打下基础。     

Quantitative analysis for maritime delimitation: Reassessing the Bay of Bengal delimitation between Bangladesh and Myanmar

This article examines technical aspects of the maritime boundary dispute between Bangladesh and Myanmar (the ‘Bay of Bengal case’). This dispute was the first maritime delimitation determined by the International Tribunal for the Law of the Sea (ITLOS). The 2012 decision was also the first time that a maritime boundary for the seabed and subsoil of the Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ) and the extended continental shelf (ECS) was determined by international adjudication. This was also therefore the first time that detailed technical quantification of seabed areas within the EEZ and ECS was needed for achieving an equitable division of these maritime zones in an international forum. Following review of the principles of maritime delimitation on which the ITLOS reached its determination, this article analyzes the legal status and delimitation effect of St. Martin's Island. Concerning the question of whether the legal regimes of the EEZ and continental shelf should be treated differently in a single delimitation line, although the ITLOS determined that the legal regimes should not be distinguished in the present case, a different approach is proposed for future cases. The article identifies how quantitative modelling can be used to achieve an equitable boundary and proposes a model to adjust provisional equidistance lines in accordance with the complex geophysical rules prescribed for the outer limits of the ECS in Article 76 of the United Nations Law of the Sea Convention (LOSC).     

热带气旋对广州经济建设的影响及其减灾对策

着重分析热带气旋的活动规律,热带气旋灾害的气候特点以及对经济建设的影响.提出热带气旋的减灾对策:气象部门应建立热带气旋防灾减灾系统,加强卫星遥感技术在热带气旋灾害监测中的应用,积极开展气象工程服务;政府和社会应做好防御工程建设,制定和完善防御台风、暴雨等灾害的具体措施,积极发展保险事业,加强城郊防御热带气旋和宣传等防灾减灾工作.     

“新经济地理学”与经济地理学的分异与对立

最近几年来,由于经济全球化的趋势,西方经济学家又开始对经济地理学产生兴趣。“新经济地理学”或“地理经济学”应运而生。首先介绍经济学家克鲁格曼的“新经济地理学”理论框架和方法,综述西方地理学家对所谓“新经济地理学”的评价,最后概述经济地理学最近的发展以及地理学家对新经济地理学理解。     

Administrative hierarchy and urban land expansion in transitional China

In a growing body of literature on urbanization in China, scholars have emphasized the proactive role of the Chinese local state in urban land expansion. Drawing upon official land use change data from 1998 to 2008, this study investigates the relationship between the hierarchical structure of the Chinese urban administrative system and urban land expansion. We find that urban land expansion coincides with administrative hierarchy, and cities with higher administrative levels (ranked by central government) tend to expand more rapidly while controlling for other economic and demographic drivers of urban expansion. Spatial regime models reveal that economic and demographic drivers of urban growth are also sensitive to a city's administrative rank. By quantifying the link between a city's rank and urban land expansion, we conclude that considering the hierarchical structure of the Chinese cities will result in a fuller understanding of the rapid urban growth in China.     

Future growth patterns of world regions – A GDP scenario approach

Global GDP projections for the 21st century are needed for the exploration of long-term global environmental problems, in particular climate change. Greenhouse gas emissions as well as climate change mitigation and adaption capacities strongly depend on growth of per capita income. However, long-term economic projections are highly uncertain. This paper provides five new long-term economic scenarios as part of the newly developed shared socio-economic pathways (SSPs) which represent a set of widely diverging narratives. A method of GDP scenario building is presented that is based on assumptions about technological progress, and human and physical capital formation as major drivers of long-term GDP per capita growth. The impact of these drivers differs significantly between different shared socio-economic pathways and is traced back to the underlying narratives and the associated population and education scenarios. In a highly fragmented world, technological and knowledge spillovers are low. Hence, the growth impact of technological progress and human capital is comparatively low, and per capita income diverges between world regions. These factors play a much larger role in globalization scenarios, leading to higher economic growth and stronger convergence between world regions. At the global average, per capita GDP is projected to grow annually in a range between 1.0% (SSP3) and 2.8% (SSP5) from 2010 to 2100. While this covers a large portion of variety in future global economic growth projections, plausible lower and higher growth projections may still be conceivable. The GDP projections are put into the context of historic patterns of economic growth (stylized facts), and their sensitivity to key assumptions is explored.