气候变化对厦门旅游业影响的模糊综合评价

以厦门市旅游业为研究样本,采用系统分析,围绕气候变化对旅游业发展的影响,建立气候变化对旅游业发展影响的评价指标体系,利用层次分析法对各指标因子进行权重测算,再利用模糊综合评价法进行评价,将气候变化对厦门旅游业的影响进行定量分析。结果显示,气候变化对旅游业的影响的隶属度最大值为0.309,是较强的。研究可以明确将旅游业发展过程中受气候变化影响的各个方面,按照受影响程度高低进行划分,从而可以有效指导旅游业相关从业者对风险进行归类,进而协调各方利益,有针对性地发展旅游业,从而实现旅游资源的长期利用和旅游业的可持续发展。     

基于SRTM数据的天气雷达探测环境分析研究

利用SRTM高程数据作为选址基础数据,结合天气雷达工作方式和探测方法,计算得到天气雷达在0.5°、1.0°、2.4°仰角上地物遮挡情况;利用高程格点数据获得3个仰角的地物剖面数据,提高了SRTM数据利用精度和运算速度;分析中结合地球曲率和电磁波折射影响,改进算法获得站点遮蔽角图,站点上空1 km、海拔3和6 km等射束高度图及数据,该分析结果充分体现了SRTM数据的高分辨率特点。最后将结果数据与GIS地图结合,完成了四川省天气雷达网探测环境分析,并给出了各个台站评估结果。     

PERMAFROST CHANGES AND ENVIRONMENTAL PROBLEMS ALONG THE QINGHAI－XIZANG HIGHWAY

ＰＥＲＭＡＦＲＯＳＴＣＨＡＮＧＥＳＡＮＤＥＮＶＩＲＯＮＭＥＮＴＡＬＰＲＯＢＬＥＭＳＡＬＯＮＧＴＨＥＱＩＮＧＨＡＩ－ＸＩＺＡＮＧＨＩＧＨＷＡＹ￥ＷａｎｇＳｈａｏｌｉｎｇ（王绍令）（ＬａｎｚｈｏｕＩｎｓｔｉｔｕｔｅｏｆＧｌａｃｉｏｌｏｇｙａｎｄＧｅｏｃｒ...     

Evaluation of Three Harvest Control Rules for Bigeye Tuna（Thunnus obesus） Fisheries in the Indian Ocean

The stock of Bigeye tuna（Thunnus obesus） in the Indian Ocean supports an important international fishery and is considered to be fully exploited. The responsible management agency, the Indian Ocean Tuna Commission（IOTC）, does not have an explicit management decision-making framework in place to prevent over-fishing. In this study, we evaluated three harvest control rules, i） constant fishing mortality（CF）, from 0.2 to 0.6, ii） constant catch（CC）, from 60000 to 140000 t, and iii） constant escapement（CE）, from 0.3 to 0.7. The population dynamics simulated by the operating model was based on the most recent stock assessment using Stock Synthesis version Ⅲ（SS3）. Three simulation scenarios（low, medium and high productivity） were designed to cover possible uncertainty in the stock assessment and biological parameters. Performances of three harvest control rules were compared on the basis of three management objectives（over 3, 10 and 25 years）： i） the probability of maintaining spawning stock biomass above a level that can sustain maximum sustainable yield（MSY） on average, ii） the probability of achieving average catches between 0.8 MSY and 1.0 MSY, and iii） inter-annual variability in catches. The constant escapement strategy（CE=0.5）, constant fishing mortality strategy（F=0.4） and constant catch（CC=80000） were the most rational among the respective management scenarios. It is concluded that the short-term annual catch is suggested at 80000 t, and the potential total allowable catch for a stable yield could be set at 120000 t once the stock had recovered successfully. All the strategies considered in this study to achieve a ‘tolerable＇ balance between resource conservation and utilization have been based around the management objectives of the IOTC.     

InSAR相位解缠算法的分析评价

相位解缠是合成孔径雷达干涉测量技术（InSAR）数据处理过程中的关键步骤,相位解缠算法的选取关系到InSAR最终成果数字方程模型（DEM）或者形变量的精度。介绍了相位解缠的基本原理,利用基于路径跟踪、最小范数和网络流思想的8种解缠算法对加拿大魁北克地区合成孔径雷达（SAR）干涉图进行相位解缠,通过不同的评价指标对解缠结果进行了评价比较。实验结果表明：Flynn最小不连续法、最小Lp范数法和Snaphu网络流法具有较好的稳定性和适应性。     

库尔勒香梨气候品质评价指标及模型的研究

以库尔勒市哈拉苏园艺场、上户镇园艺场、沙依东园艺场、库尔楚园艺场为研究点,对2013—2016年各生育期的香梨进行抽样调查,统计分析品质与气象因子、人工管理、气象灾害程度等因素的关系,建立库尔勒香梨果实气候品质评价指标及模型。结果表明:(1)单果质量的主要影响因子是5月平均气温日较差和平均相对湿度;果形指数的主要影响因子是5月日平均气温和9月平均相对湿度;果实硬度的主要影响因子是6—7月平均气温和8月平均气温日较差;可溶性固形物的主要影响因子是7月的平均气温日较差和平均相对湿度,8月的日平均气温和相对湿度,9月的日平均最低气温。(2)库尔勒香梨气候品质评价模型由区域适宜性、单果质量、果形指数、果实硬度、可溶性固形物、气象灾害、人工管理共7个因子构成。(3)库尔勒香梨气候品质认证结果划分为特优、优、良好、一般4个等级。(4)2017年样点果园中沙依东园艺场香梨气候品质评价结果为良好,上户镇园艺场为特优,哈拉苏园艺场为优,库尔楚园艺场为良好。     

测井地质学前世、今生与未来——写在《测井地质学·第二版》出版之时

测井地质学以地质学和测井学的方法理论为指导,综合运用各种测井信息,来解决基础地质和石油地质的地质问题。经过数十年发展,测井地质学在油气勘探开发各个环节得到广泛应用。非常规油气的兴起使得测井地质学正面临多重挑战和全新探索,亟需建立针对非常规油气的测井地质学综合方法理论体系。本文以《测井地质学·第二版》出版为契机,系统归纳了测井地质学的起源及发展历程、主要研究内容和研究方法流程。然后总结了测井资料与地震、地质信息的匹配性,并分析了不同探测特性测井方法纵向分辨率区间特征。在此基础上评述了测井地质学在井旁构造解析、沉积学特征研究、层序地层划分、地应力方向判别及大小计算、井壁裂缝识别与评价、烃源岩评价以及非常规油气“七性关系”综合评价当中的应用。但由于测井资料的负载能力有限性、测井与地质信息属性不对应性以及测井资料本身的多解性,使得测井地质学在测井—地质转换、非常规油气测井评价及其与人工智能融合方面还存在一定的问题。因此加强基础岩石物理研究,挖掘测井曲线中包含的地质信息,并与人工智能相结合,将拓展测井地质学研究的精度和广度,从而使其未来可更好地应用至非常规油气测井评价等实践工作中。     

川东南地区志留系龙马溪组页岩气有利区评价优选

通过对川东南地区志留系龙马溪组页岩有机质丰度、热成熟度、有机质类型、脆性矿物含量、页岩层厚度、埋藏深度、构造形态等七大地质因素的综合分析,认定该区分布广泛的页岩有机质含量较高,有机质类型较好,热演化程度高,生烃潜力大,具备形成页岩气藏的气源条件。页岩厚度较大,埋深较浅,脆性矿物含量较大,页岩气的保存条件良好,有利于页岩气的压裂与开采。     

Research on the effect estimation of seismic safety evaluation

IntroductionItisdefinitelystipulatedintheLawofthePeople'sRepublicofChinaonProtectingagainstandMitigatingEarthquakeDisastersthattheseismicsafetyevaluationmustbemadeformajorprojects(includinglifelineprojects)and,accordingtotheresultsobtained,theseismicresistancerequirementsshouldbedetermined.Thenecessityofseismicsafetyevaluationhasbeenrecog-nizedgradually,butthetopicontheeffectofsafetyevaluationhasnotbeenreferredmuch.Gener-allyspeaking,althoughmostpeopleapprovethesocialeffectofsafetyevaluatio…     

Operational Evaluation of the Quantitative Precipitation Estimation by a CINRAD-SA Dual Polarization Radar System

In this paper, the quantitative precipitation estimation based on hydrometeor classification (HCA-QPE) algorithm was proposed for the first operational S band dual-polarization radar promoted by the CINRAD/SA radar of China. The HCA-QPE algorithm, the localized Colorado State University-Hydrometeor Identification of Rainfall (CSU-HIDRO) and Joint Polarization Experiment (JPOLE) algorithms, and the dynamic Z-R relationships based on variational correction QPE (DRVC-QPE) algorithm were evaluated with the rainfall events from March 1 to October 30, 2017 in the Guangdong Province. The results indicated that even though the HCA-QPE algorithm did not use the observed rainfall data for correction, its estimation accuracy was better than that of the DRVC-QPE algorithm when the rainfall rate was greater than 5mm h^(-1); and the stronger the rainfall intensity, the greater the QPE improvement. And the HCA-QPE algorithm worked better than the localized CSU-HIDRO and JPOLE algorithms. This study preliminarily verified the improved accuracy of QPE by a dual-polarization radar system modified from CINRAD-SA radar.