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21.
This paper investigates the use of data assimilation in coastal area morphodynamic modelling using Morecambe Bay as a study site. A simple model of the bay has been enhanced with a data assimilation scheme to better predict large-scale changes in bathymetry observed in the bay over a 3-year period. The 2DH decoupled morphodynamic model developed for the work is described, as is the optimal interpolation scheme used to assimilate waterline observations into the model run. Each waterline was acquired from a SAR satellite image and is essentially a contour of the bathymetry at some level within the inter-tidal zone of the bay. For model parameters calibrated against validation observations, model performance is good, even without data assimilation. However the use of data assimilation successfully compensates for a particular failing of the model, and helps to keep the model bathymetry on track. It also improves the ability of the model to predict future bathymetry. Although the benefits of data assimilation are demonstrated using waterline observations, any observations of morphology could potentially be used. These results suggest that data assimilation should be considered for use in future coastal area morphodynamic models. 相似文献
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Inverse analysis is increasingly used in ecosystem modelling to objectively reconstruct a large number of unknown flows or interactions from a small number of observations. This type of analysis may be useful in relating observed regime shifts in ecosystem structure to underlying processes. Inversions of ecosystem flow networks currently use a constrained least-squares solution which at the same time minimizes the squared norm (the sum of squares) of the reconstructed flows. This minimum norm (MN) inversion is thought to be a parsimonious solution to the ecosystem flow inverse problem, but it may well not reflect how ecosystems are organised. It has been proposed instead that ecosystems evolve to maximize energy/mass flows or that they maximize the information content of the network weighted by ecosystem flows (ascendancy). We used simulated inverse experiments, where inverse analyses are applied to simulations of flow networks, to explore objective functions different than the MN generally used. We could not compute inverse solutions that maximize ascendancy because the objective function is unbounded. We could calculate inversions that maximize flows; however, these generally overestimated the simulated flows, even though the simulations were designed to maximize flows. It appears that the ecosystem flow inverse problem is too under-determined (too few data relative to the number of unknowns) to allow the use of these maximizing goal functions. We introduce a new minimization that simultaneously minimizes the squared flows and the squared differences between flows. This smoothing minimization makes the inverse flows as even as possible and it helps with some technical issues with MN inversions. The simulated inverse experiments indicated that this smoothed norm (SM) is the most robust in comparative analyses of contrasting ecosystem states, such as those that can be associated with regime shifts. Like the MN inversion, the SM inversion has no ecological basis. However, it is a conservative norm that is less likely to produce false differences between the dynamics of regimes. 相似文献
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Risk-based decision-making for drilling waste discharges using a fuzzy synthetic evaluation technique 总被引:5,自引:0,他引:5
Offshore petroleum drilling wastes contain toxic substances that are potentially harmful to the marine ecosystem. Despite environmentally benign characteristics, wastes associated with synthetic-based fluids still contain a certain amount of pollutants due to contamination with formation oil and the presence of trace heavy metals in barite, which may pose risk when discharged into the marine environment. A framework is presented here for a decision support system for the selection of the best drilling waste discharge option. Uncertainties in the quantification of risk, cost and technical feasibility are expressed by fuzzy numbers. An analytical hierarchy process with a technique called fuzzy synthetic evaluation is employed to determine the best management alternative (discharge scenario). 相似文献
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关于海水网箱养殖系统风险评估的基础研究 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
随着海水网箱养殖业的迅速发展,制约海水网箱养殖发展的种种因素也逐步显露出来(风暴潮等恶劣气候、环境污染、人为的破坏等等),海水网箱养殖在预期获得丰厚利润的同时也面临遭受巨大损失的风险。本文对海水网箱养殖系统风险评估的可操作性进行了基础研究,提出了一套适合海水网箱养殖系统的风险评估方法,并就数据的收集和专家评审表做了一些研究,以此客观的反映系统的安全性和可靠性,使决策者实现对养殖系统生命周期的最佳控制。 相似文献
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运用德尔菲调查—灰色统计法确立水库鱼产力综合评价中的指标权重体系 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
本文运用德尔菲方法对水库鱼产力综合评价中指标权重的合理分配问题作了专家调查,并采用灰色统计法对调查结果进行归纳处理,从而确立了一个水库鱼产力影响因素诸层次各方面的评价指标权重体系,可供今后的评价工作参考使用。 相似文献
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干旱区凝结水研究进展 总被引:5,自引:0,他引:5
凝结水是维系干旱、半干旱地区主要食物链的水分来源之一,具有重要的生态意义。较详细地列举了目前国内外在干旱区测定凝结量及其持续时间所采用的研究方法,从凝结水的数量特征以及时间格局两方面阐述了不同地域凝结水的时空差异性,并从气象因素、凝结面的类型及其位置、周边植被对其作用等方面综合分析了影响凝结水发生的主要因素,探讨了干旱区凝结水的生态作用及其意义,展望了干旱区凝结水未来的研究趋势。提出在未来的干旱区凝结水研究中应加强与气象学、生态学等多学科的交叉,从能量平衡角度加强对凝结水量的研究;同时,改进和规范凝结水的测量方法,开展荒漠植被对凝结水的生理响应研究以及凝结水对极端干旱胁迫植物的作用研究。 相似文献
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