Analyzing CO2 emissions mitigation by technology improvement in Central and Eastern Europe

As a legacy of the centrally planned economy, the economies in transition of Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) have a unique potential to reduce their greenhouse gas emissions through the improvement in their high energy intensities. Since much of this `low-hanging fruit' in energy-efficiency improvements can be highly cost-effective, many developed countries facing difficulties in meeting their greenhouse gas (GHG) emission targets domestically are eager to find such opportunities in the CEE region. Therefore, studies analysing the potentials and costs of carbon dioxide reduction through technology improvement in the region have come into the limelight. While there are a few excellent studies in the region aimed at analysing climate change abatement potentials, they all embark on different assumptions, methodologies and boundary conditions. It is hence difficult, if not impossible, to compare and analyse the results of these studies across different authors, countries or time horizons. Consequently, the purpose of this paper is to place four leading studies on GHG mitigation through technology improvement from the CEE region into an internationally comparable framework. Four studies were selected from three countries, Poland, Hungary and Estonia, which are all the results of major national and international efforts to assess costs and potentials of GHG reduction. The paper places their assumptions, methods and final results into a framework which enables policy-makers and project designers to compare these across geographical and technological boundaries. Since other studies from around the globe have been analysed in this framework in the literature, this paper provides a vehicle for the findings of these four studies to be compared to others worldwide. In addition, the paper highlights a few areas where similar studies to be completed in the future in the region may be enhanced by incorporating features used in GHG mitigation research in other parts of the world. This revised version was published online in July 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

陇东地区水土流失与地质作用初步分析

陇东地区是黄河上游水土流失严重区 ,也是国家重点治理的地区之一。由于特殊的岩土体的存在 ,加重了这一地区水土流失作用的危害性。本文通过水土流失现象与地质作用的关系进行偿试性探讨 ,旨在从中找到防治水土流失的有效措施 ,开展治理工作     

华北地台和秦岭—大别—苏鲁造山带的中生代花岗岩与深部地球动力学过程

近年来的研究证实 ,华北地台和大别—苏鲁造山带的中生代花岗岩与同时代的镁铁质超镁铁质岩有类似的Sr、Nd同位素特点 ,许多花岗岩和火山岩还具有类似埃达克岩的地球化学性质。在此基础上 ,根据现已积累的大量Sr、Nd同位素资料 ,从整个华北地台岩石圈的角度论证了中生代岩石圈地幔富集的性质、富集地幔发生的时代及其形成机制 ,进而探讨了岩浆活动的动力学机制 ,指出本区岩石圈富集地幔的形成是在Pangea超大陆裂解时岩石圈大规模拆沉减薄 ,被拆沉的太古宙古老地壳重循环进入地幔改变了地幔成分所致 ,说明超大陆裂解、岩石圈大规模拆沉减薄和富集地幔形成之间有密切的成因联系 ,超大陆裂解伴随着大陆地壳生长和消亡 (重循环 )的大体平衡。结合全球地震层析资料 ,进一步探讨了由俯冲大洋残片转化的下地壳同古老克拉通地壳物质在花岗岩源区中的重要意义。     

新疆东天山地区土屋、延东铜矿地球化学特征与异常查证方法

对土屋地区干旱荒漠景观地球化学条件和勘查地球化学方法进行了分析，对比研究了不同比例尺地球化学异常特征及对矿床的反映能力，指出了该区铜元素是预测铜矿的最重要的指示元素，论证了在区域铜高背景区和异常区开展1：5万化探是进一步定性、定位预测矿区、矿床的重要环节，提出了东天山地区经济、有效的地球化学勘查和异常查证方法技术组合。     

Study of Aeromagnetic Data Over Part of Eastern Ghat Mobile Belt and Bastar Craton

A portion of the aeromagnetic anomaly map of India, from 17⁰ to 20⁰ N and 78^o to 84^o E has been analysed to understand the tectonics of the region. The distribution of magnetic sources in the study region are clearly brought out in the analytic signal map and found to be associated with charnockitic rocks, iron formation and trap flows. The Godavari Graben is devoid of any magnetic sources. High-grade charnockitic rocks on surface and sub-surface, flank the shoulders of the Godavari Graben on either side. From the analysis of magnetic data, Sileru Shear Zone (SSZ) is identified as the contact of the Bastar craton and the Eastern Ghat Mobile Belt (EGMB). The Eastern Ghat is divided into two blocks: Block-N north of Srikakulam is devoid of magnetic sources while the charnockitic rocks are the main magnetic carriers in Block-S. The difference in magnetic characteristics of the two blocks has been attributed to the difference in metamorphic history. Block-N has an over print of amphibolite facies metamorphism while Block-S to the south depicts granulite facies metamorphism. The Euler solutions within the EGMB shows that the magnetic sources along SSZ is shallower than the south east implying that the exhumation process in the EGMB has a differential rate.     

Stability analysis of the Vallcebre translational slide,Eastern Pyrenees (Spain) by means of a GIS

The stability of the landslide of Vallcebre has been evaluated by means of a GIS. The landslide mechanism is a translational failure which has been analysed as an infinite slope. Soil strength parameters and groundwater conditions are obtained from laboratory tests and monitoring devices. Geometric parameters necessary to compute the factor of safety at each individual cell are generated by interpolation from the boreholes present in the landslide. The results have been checked with the actual behaviour of the landslide and are consistent. The comparison between a conventional slope stability analysis and the GIS-based approach gives similar results, showing the feasibility of the latter.     

Flat mantle reflectors in Eastern China: possible evidence of lithospheric thinning

Recent 24 s deep seismic reflection records revealed five flat reflectors in the lithospheric mantle in Eastern China. With increasing depth, they are named M1 to M5 and can be seen on both field single-shot and stacked records. Reflector M1 corresponds to the Moho discontinuity, whereas M5 may be the reflection from the bottom of the current lithosphere, which is about 78 km deep according to geothermal measurements. The other three reflectors seem peculiar and might result from interactions between the lithosphere and deeper mantle. Based on lithological and geochemical data, it is suggested that the lithosphere has been thinned from about 150 km to about 60 km in the Late Mesozoic, and then has been thickened to about 78 km during the Cenozoic. The thinning process produced a granulite layer in the old lower crust caused by magmatic underplating, whereas an eclogite layer formed beneath owing to the subduction of the Paleo-Tethys and Yangtze Craton during the Permian and Early Mesozoic. Reflector M2 at about 12 s two-way traveltime (TWT) might result from the Paleozoic Moho, which represents the boundary between the previous granulite and eclogite facies. Reflector M3 at about 14 s might correspond to the bottom of the eclogite layer, beneath which the old lithospheric mantle remained. The old and the newly developed mantle may have different compositions, resulting in reflector M4. The multi-layered mantle reflectors demonstrate a mantle structure that possibly correlates with the lithospheric thinning process that occurred in Eastern China during the Late Mesozoic. The discovery of multi-layered mantle reflectors in the studied areas indicates a high heterogeneity of the upper mantle. Reflection seismology with improved technology, together with velocity and resistivity imaging and rock-physics measurements, can provide more details of the heterogeneity and related dynamic processes that occurred in the lithospheric mantle.     

Late Holocene climates of the Near East deduced from Dead Sea level variations and modern regional winter rainfall

The Dead Sea is a terminal lake of one of the largest hydrological systems in the Levant and may thus be viewed as a large rain gauge for the region. Variations of its level are indicative of the climate variations in the region. Here, we present the decadal- to centennial-resolution Holocene lake-level curve of the Dead Sea. Then we determine the regional hydroclimatology that affected level variations. To achieve this goal we compare modern natural lake-level variations and instrumental rainfall records and quantify the hydrology relative to lake-level rise, fall, or stability. To quantify that relationship under natural conditions, rainfall data pre-dating the artificial Dead Sea level drop since the 1960s are used. In this respect, Jerusalem station offers the longest uninterrupted pre-1960s rainfall record and Jerusalem rains serve as an adequate proxy for the Dead Sea headwaters rainfall. Principal component analysis indicates that temporal variations of annual precipitation in all stations in Israel north of the current 200 mm yr⁻¹ average isohyet during 1940–1990 are largely synchronous and in phase (70% of the total variance explained by PC1). This station also represents well northern Jordan and the area all the way to Beirut, Lebanon, especially during extreme drought and wet spells. We (a) determine the modern, and propose the past regional hydrology and Eastern Mediterranean (EM) climatology that affected the severity and length of droughts/wet spells associated with multiyear episodes of Dead Sea level falls/rises and (b) determine that EM cyclone tracks were different in average number and latitude in wet and dry years in Jerusalem. The mean composite sea level pressure and 500-mb height anomalies indicate that the potential causes for wet and dry episodes span the entire EM and are rooted in the larger-scale northern hemisphere atmospheric circulation. We also identified remarkably close association (within radiocarbon resolution) between climatic changes in the Levant, reflected by level changes, and culture shifts in this region.     

Paleoclimate reconstruction based on the timing of speleothem growth and oxygen and carbon isotope composition in a cave located in the rain shadow in Israel

High-resolution ²³⁰Th/²³⁴U ages and δ¹⁸O and δ¹³C compositions of speleothems in Ma’ale Efrayim Cave located to the east of the central mountain ridge of Israel enable us to examine the nature of the rain shadow aridity during glacial and interglacial intervals. Speleothem growth occurred during marine glacial isotopic periods, with no growth during the two last marine isotope interglacial intervals and during the peak of the Last Glacial Maximum. This contrasts with speleothem growth in caves located on the western flank of the central mountain ridge, in the Eastern Mediterranean semiarid climatic zone, which continued throughout the last 240,000 yr. Thus, during glacial periods water reached both sides of the central mountain ridge. A comparison of the present-day rain and cave water isotopic compositions and amounts at the Ma’ale Efrayim Cave site with those on the western flank shows that evaporation and higher temperatures on the eastern flank are major influences on isotopic composition and the lack of rainfall. The δ¹⁸O and δ¹³C profiles of the speleothems deposited between 67,000 and 25,000 yr B.P. match the general trends of the isotopic profiles of Soreq Cave speleothems, suggesting a similar source (eastern Mediterranean Sea) and similar climatic conditions. Thus, during glacial periods the desert boundary effectively migrated further south or east from its present-day location on the eastern flank, whereas interglacial periods appear to have been similar to the present, with the desert boundary at the same position. The decrease in overall temperature and a consequent reduction in the evaporation to precipitation ratios on the eastern flank are viewed as the major factors controlling the decay of the rain shadow effect during glacial periods.