地震预报思路的再讨论

文中回顾了1974年提出的“块、带、源、兆、触、报”六字预报思路，并基于近20年来的研究对此进行了补充和深化。     

陇东地区水土流失与地质作用初步分析

陇东地区是黄河上游水土流失严重区 ,也是国家重点治理的地区之一。由于特殊的岩土体的存在 ,加重了这一地区水土流失作用的危害性。本文通过水土流失现象与地质作用的关系进行偿试性探讨 ,旨在从中找到防治水土流失的有效措施 ,开展治理工作     

滚 滑 复 合 轴 承 研 究

针对牙轮钻头的滑动轴承和滚动轴承在实际工作中所存在的问题，提出一种牙轮钻头滚滑复合轴承，对滚滑复合轴承结构进行有限元对比分析、模拟对比试验和钻头现场验证实验，表明滚滑复合轴承是一种较先进的创新性轴承。     

由小震震源机制解得到的鄂尔多斯周边构造应力场

利用格点尝试法首先分区对鄂尔多斯地块周边的 30 0 0多个小震震源机制解进行了处理。结果显示 ,在震源机制解覆盖的时段内 ,地块周边地区的平均构造应力场有以下特征 :地块周边主要以水平构造作用力为主 ,且其主压应力轴走向以地块西南侧为中心 ,从北至东呈扇形展布。在分区基础上 ,对各区的平均主应力轴分布进行了扫描 ,得到了其随时间的变化过程。其中渭河、六盘山和银川区的构造应力场相对稳定 ,临汾和同心区的构造应力场变化复杂 ,临河、包头、呼和、大同和太原区的构造应力场变化与该区的几次中强地震有密切关系。另外 ,地块周边除个别区外大多数区域在 1992年和 1996年前后 ,主压应力轴走向有趋近于N75°E的现象     

华北地台和秦岭—大别—苏鲁造山带的中生代花岗岩与深部地球动力学过程

近年来的研究证实 ,华北地台和大别—苏鲁造山带的中生代花岗岩与同时代的镁铁质超镁铁质岩有类似的Sr、Nd同位素特点 ,许多花岗岩和火山岩还具有类似埃达克岩的地球化学性质。在此基础上 ,根据现已积累的大量Sr、Nd同位素资料 ,从整个华北地台岩石圈的角度论证了中生代岩石圈地幔富集的性质、富集地幔发生的时代及其形成机制 ,进而探讨了岩浆活动的动力学机制 ,指出本区岩石圈富集地幔的形成是在Pangea超大陆裂解时岩石圈大规模拆沉减薄 ,被拆沉的太古宙古老地壳重循环进入地幔改变了地幔成分所致 ,说明超大陆裂解、岩石圈大规模拆沉减薄和富集地幔形成之间有密切的成因联系 ,超大陆裂解伴随着大陆地壳生长和消亡 (重循环 )的大体平衡。结合全球地震层析资料 ,进一步探讨了由俯冲大洋残片转化的下地壳同古老克拉通地壳物质在花岗岩源区中的重要意义。     

新疆东天山地区土屋、延东铜矿地球化学特征与异常查证方法

对土屋地区干旱荒漠景观地球化学条件和勘查地球化学方法进行了分析，对比研究了不同比例尺地球化学异常特征及对矿床的反映能力，指出了该区铜元素是预测铜矿的最重要的指示元素，论证了在区域铜高背景区和异常区开展1：5万化探是进一步定性、定位预测矿区、矿床的重要环节，提出了东天山地区经济、有效的地球化学勘查和异常查证方法技术组合。     

Aseismic negative dislocation model and deformation analysis of crustal horizontal movement during 1999——2001 in the northeast margin of Qinghai-Xizang block

Through numerical simulation for GPS data, aseism/c negative dislocation model for crustal horizontal movement during 1999-2001 in the northeast margin of Qinghai-Xizang block is presented, combined with the spatial distri-bution of apparent strain field in this area, the characteristics of motion and deformation of active blocks and their boundary faults, together with the place and intensity of strain accumulation are analyzed. It is shown that: a) 9 active blocks appeared totally clockwise motion from eastward by north to eastward by south. Obvious sinistral strike-slip and NE-NEE relative compressive motion between the blocks separated by Qilianshan-Haiyuan fault zone was discovered; b) 20 fault segments (most of them showed compression) locked the relative motion between blocks to varying degrees, among the total, the mid-east segment of Qilianshan fault (containing the place where it meets Riyueshan-Lajishan fault) and the place where it meets Haiyuan fault and Zhuanglanghe fault, more favored accumulation of strain. Moreover, the region where Riyueshan-Lajishan fault meets north boundary of Qaidam block may have strain accumulation to some degree, c) Obtained magnitude of block velocities and locking of their boundaries were less than relevant results for observation in the period of 1993-1999.     

Movement and strain conditions of active blocks in the Chinese mainland

The definition of active block is given from the angles of crustal deformation and strain. The movement and strain parameters of active blocks are estimated according to the unified velocity field composed of the velocities at 1598 GPS stations obtained from GPS measurements carried out in the past years in the Chinese mainland and the surrounding areas. The movement and strain conditions of the blocks are analyzed. The active blocks in the Chinese mainland have a consistent E-trending movement component, but its N and S components are not consistent. The blocks in the western part have a consistent N-trending movement and the blocks in the eastern part have a consistent S-trending movement. In the area to the east of 90°E, that is the area from Himalayas block towards NE, the movement direction of the blocks rotates clockwisely and the movement rates of the blocks are different. Generally, the movement rate is large in the west and south and small in the east and north with a difference of 3 to 4 times between the rates in the west and east. The distributions of principal compressive strain directions of the blocks are also different. The principal strain of the blocks located to the west of 90oE is basically in the SN direction, the principal compressive strain of the blocks in the northeastern part of Qingzang plateau is roughly in the NE direction and the direction of principal compressive strain of the blocks in the southeastern part of Qingzang plateau rounds clockwisely the east end of Himalayas structure. In addition, the principal strain and shear strain rates of the blocks are also different. The Himalayas and Tianshan blocks have the largest principal compressive strain and the maximum shear strain rate. Then, Lhasa, Qiangtang, Southwest Yunnan (SW Yunnan), Qilian and Sichuan-Yunan (Chuan-Dian) blocks followed. The strain rate of the blocks in the eastern part is smaller. The estimation based on the stain condition indicates that Himalayas block is still the area with the most intensive tectonic activity and it shortens in the NS direction at the rate of 15.2±1.5 mm/a. Tianshan block ranks the second and it shortens in the NS direction at the rate of 10.1±0.9 mm/a. At present, the two blocks are still uprising. It can be seen from superficial strain that the Chinese mainland is predominated by superficial expansion. Almost the total area in the eastern part of the Chinese mainland is expanded, while in the western part, the superficial compression and expansion are alternatively distributed from the south to the north. In the Chinese mainland, most EW-trending or proximate EW-trending faults have the left-lateral or left-lateral strike-slip relative movements along both sides, and most NS-trending faults have the right-lateral or right-lateral strike-slip relative movements along both sides. According to the data from GPS measurements the left-lateral strike-slip rate is 4.8±1.3 mm/a in the central part of Altun fault and 9.8±2.2 mm/a on Xianshuihe fault. The movement of the fault along the block boundary has provided the condition for block movement, so the movements of the block and its boundary are consistent, but the movement levels of the blocks are different. The statistic results indicate that the relative movement between most blocks is quite significant, which proves that active blocks exist. Himalayas, Tianshan, Qiangtang and SW Yunnan blocks have the most intensive movement; China-Mongolia, China-Korea (China-Korea), Alxa and South China blocks are rather stable. The mutual action of India, Pacific and Philippine Sea plates versus Eurasia plate is the principal driving force to the block movement in the Chinese mainland. Under the NNE-trending intensive press from India plate, the crustal matter of Qingzang plateau moves to the NNE and NE directions, then is hindered by the blocks located in the northern, northeastern and eastern parts. The crustal matter moves towards the Indian Ocean by the southeastern part of the plateau.     

Recurrence characteristics of late-quaternary strong earthquakes on the major active faults along the northern border of Ordos block

Through study on trenches, analysis of recurrence characteristics and recurrence interval cluster/gap of strong earthquakes along the major active faults on the northern border of Ordos block, we found 62 paleoearthquakes that occurred in the late Quaternary, including 33 earthquakes occurring in the Holocene. The recurrence characteristics of the paleoearthquakes are different at three levels, segments, faults, and fault zones. The strong seismic sequence on the independent segments is mostly characterized by long- and short-interval recurrences, while that on the faults and in fault zone is characterized clearly by random and cluster recurrences. Results of the moving window test indicate that the probabilities of "temporal cluster or gap", caused by random coincidence as opposed to intersegment contagion, are 64% and 70% for the Serteng piedmont fault and for the south-border fault of Wula Mountains, respectively, no clear interaction among the segments of each fault; while the probability is 26.8% for the whole fault zone, suggesting a clear interaction among the faults of this fault zone. These recurrence characteristics may imply an effect of the entire block motion on the recurrence of strong earthquakes. Moreover, the elapsed time for the Wujumeng Pass-Dongfeng Village segment of Serteng piedmont fault and the Tuzuo Banner-Wusutu and the Hohhot segments of Daqingshan piedmont fault has exceeded the average recurrence interval, hence these three segments may be the possible places for future strong earthquakes.     

Late Cenozoic deformation subsequence in northeastern margin of Tibet --Detrital AFT records from Linxia Basin

Two events of Tibet uplifting are revealed by detrital apatite fission track (AFT) age data from Linxia Basin. They occurred at about 14 and 5.4-8.0 MaBP respectively. We interpret the first one to be related to the uplifting of the northern Tibet, which might have resulted from convectively removing the thickened lower lithosphere. The second one is a result of Laji Mountain uplifting. Numerous studies of the Tibetan Plateau suggest that the onset time of the deformation in the northeastern margin of Tibetan Plateau and the time of Tibet attaining to its present elevation is about 8 MaBP. They are approximately coincident with the uplift of Lajishan Mountain. It suggests that the northeastern margin of Tibet propagated northeastwardly to its present site in about 8 MaBP for accommodating the sustained convergence between India-Eurasia plate and for keeping its high elevation. The active block pattern dominating the strong earthquake distribution of Chinese continent probably formed at about 8.0-5.4 MaBP.