大气热源年代际异常与20世纪70年代末期东亚夏季风年代际减弱

利用1958-2001年ERA-40再分析资料计算大气热源,统计分析了亚洲季风区及其邻近海域大气热源年代际变异的典型模态;利用线性斜压干模式,模拟了夏季大气对大气热源年代际异常的响应,揭示了大气热源年代际异常与1970s末期东亚夏季风年代际减弱的关系。结果表明:近50 a来亚洲及其邻近海域夏季整层大气热源变异主要表现为年代际变化特征,其年代际位相转换发生在1970s中后期,这与东亚夏季风年代际减弱的时间一致;菲律宾附近海域和中国西南地区是与东亚夏季风年代际减弱有直接联系的两个热源异常关键区;东亚夏季风年代际减弱最直接地表现为这两个关键区热源异常的共同作用,而赤道中东太平洋、赤道印度洋大气热源增强则通过大气遥响应机制影响菲律宾附近海域低层大气环流异常对东亚夏季风变异起相反的贡献。     

华东地区月平均气温统计降尺度方法比较

用中国地面气象观测站的逐日气温观测资料和NCEP/NCAR再分析资料,分别使用基于多元线性回归(MLR)和3种主成分分析(PCA)的统计降尺度方法,对1959-2008年的华东地区的月平均气温分两个时段进行统计降尺度分析并加以检验,比较了不同降尺度方法的结果。结果表明:对于华东地区气温的统计降尺度预报,基于MLR的统计降尺度方法相对于3种PCA方法而言,对单站年际变化模拟方面有一定优势。PCA方法应用于统计降尺度时,预报因子的区域选择是影响统计降尺度结果的重要因素之一。对于温度进行统计降尺度分析时,预报因子中包含温度因子是非常必要的;所试验的4种降尺度方法,对各站点多年平均情况的模拟要好于对区域平均的年际变化的模拟。     

An assessment of the predictability of the East Asian Subtropical Westerly Jet based on TIGGE data

The predictability of the position, spatial coverage and intensity of the East Asian subtropical westerly jet(EASWJ) in the summers of 2010 to 2012 was examined for ensemble prediction systems(EPSs) from four representative TIGGE centers,including the ECMWF, the NCEP, the CMA, and the JMA. Results showed that each EPS predicted all EASWJ properties well, while the levels of skill of all EPSs declined as the lead time extended. Overall, improvements from the control to the ensemble mean forecasts for predicting the EASWJ were apparent. For the deterministic forecasts of all EPSs, the prediction of the average axis was better than the prediction of the spatial coverage and intensity of the EASWJ. ECMWF performed best, with a lead of approximately 0.5–1 day in predictability over the second-best EPS for all EASWJ properties throughout the forecast range. For probabilistic forecasts, differences in skills among the different EPSs were more evident in the earlier part of the forecast for the EASWJ axis and spatial coverage, while they departed obviously throughout the forecast range for the intensity. ECMWF led JMA by about 0.5–1 day for the EASWJ axis, and by about 1–2 days for the spatial coverage and intensity at almost all lead times. The largest lead of ECMWF over the relatively worse EPSs, such as NCEP and CMA, was approximately 3–4 days for all EASWJ properties. In summary, ECMWF showed the highest level of skill for predicting the EASWJ, followed by JMA.     

Predictability of the summer East Asian upper-tropospheric westerly jet in ENSEMBLES multi-model forecasts

The interannual variation of the East Asian upper-tropospheric westerly jet(EAJ) significantly affects East Asian climate in summer. Identifying its performance in model prediction may provide us another viewpoint,from the perspective of uppertropospheric circulation,to understand the predictability of summer climate anomalies in East Asia. This study presents a comprehensive assessment of year-to-year variability of the EAJ based on retrospective seasonal forecasts,initiated from1 May,in the five state-of-the-art coupled models from ENSEMBLES during 1960–2005. It is found that the coupled models show certain capability in describing the interannual meridional displacement of the EAJ,which reflects the models' performance in the first leading empirical orthogonal function(EOF) mode. This capability is mainly shown over the region south of the EAJ axis. Additionally,the models generally capture well the main features of atmospheric circulation and SST anomalies related to the interannual meridional displacement of the EAJ. Further analysis suggests that the predicted warm SST anomalies in the concurrent summer over the tropical eastern Pacific and northern Indian Ocean are the two main sources of the potential prediction skill of the southward shift of the EAJ. In contrast,the models are powerless in describing the variation over the region north of the EAJ axis,associated with the meridional displacement,and interannual intensity change of the EAJ,the second leading EOF mode,meaning it still remains a challenge to better predict the EAJ and,subsequently,summer climate in East Asia,using current coupled models.     

CORRELATION ANALYSIS OF THE WESTERN PACIFIC SUBTROPICAL HIGH AND EASTERN ASIAN SUMMER MONSOON SYSTEM BASED ON FUZZY SYSTEMS AND DYNAMICAL MODEL INVERSION FORECAST

Based on the adaptive network fuzzy inference system (ANFIS), methods to filter out the noise of impact factors from the main signal are discussed. Focusing on the abnormal weather conditions in 2010, we use the delay-relevant method to analyze the five members of the summer monsoon system that had the largest effect on the subtropical high anomalies from the observational data. ANFIS is suitable for research and simulation of subtropical highs that are difficult to describe accurately with dynamics, allowing the effect of five factors on the subtropical high anomalies to be examined. Our results show that the Mascarene cold high, the Indian monsoon latent heat flux, and the South China Sea monsoon trough had the largest effect on the subtropical high anomalies. Diagnostic analysis, with genetic algorithms (GA) and dynamical reconstruction theory, reconstructed the nonlinear dynamical model of the subtropical high and its main factors objectively and accurately from the sequence of observations in 2010. Furthermore, a dynamically extended forecast experiment is performed. The forecasts for the subtropical high area index, the Mascarene cold high index, the Indian monsoon latent heat flux, and the South China Sea monsoon trough index all show a strong short-term effect over less than 25 days. The forecasting trend is accurate, and the error rate is no more than 7%. Our results provide new insight and methods for research on the association between the western Pacific subtropical high and the East Asian summer monsoon system, and for the prediction of the western Pacific subtropical high index.     

A2和B2排放情景下气候变化对福建省水稻生产的阶段性影响

选择IPCC排放情景特别报告(SRES)中的A2和B2方案,利用区域气候模式PRECIS构建的气候变化情景文件与作物模型(CERES-Rice)耦合,采用雨养与灌溉两种方式,并综合考虑未来CO2浓度增加带来的直接增益效应,模拟了未来2020s及2040s两个时段气候变化对福建省水稻生育期与产量的影响。结果表明:无论是雨养方式还是灌溉方式,未来全省各稻区水稻生育期都将缩短,并且随着温度增高,2040s时段缩短的时间较2020s更长,单季稻生育期缩短时间最长,可达15~20 d。雨养条件下,除了闽东南双季稻区后季稻在2020s时段表现为2.3%(A2)和3.1%(B2)较小幅度的增产外,其他稻区各种稻作制度下的水稻产量较之BASE均出现了不同幅度的减产。闽西北稻区后季稻减产幅度最大,2020s时段A2和B2情景下减产幅度依次为6.9%和10.2%,2040s时段减产幅度进一步加大至14.1%和15.6%。闽东南稻区后季稻模拟结果较为乐观,尤其是在灌溉条件下表现为不同幅度的增产,两种情景下分别增产了1.7%、3.9%。双季稻种植区的后季稻产量稳定性均不如早稻和单季稻的,且随着温度升高,到2040s产量不稳定性有增加的趋势。灌溉在一定程度上可以缓解未来高温天气带来的产量波动。从全省的总产变化趋势来看,A2和B2两种排放情景模拟的结果都不容乐观,即使采用充分灌溉的方式,也依旧表现为减产。2020s时段,两种情景下分别减产0.74%与2.44%;2040s时段,两种情景下减产为3.50%与3.23%。未来早稻和单季稻生长季的土壤水分条件将变得不如目前湿润,与之相关的灌溉需要量均有所增加。     

黔东八克金矿床毒砂和黄铁矿微量元素地球化学研究

八克金矿床以矿体和围岩广泛出现毒砂为典型特征,毒砂、黄铁矿为金的主要共生矿物。对矿体及其围岩中毒砂、黄铁矿进行稀土和微量元素地球化学研究,结果显示矿体中毒砂和黄铁矿的稀土元素总量明显低于围岩的毒砂、黄铁矿,从矿体—近矿围岩—远矿围岩,毒砂、黄铁矿都出现铕的明显负异常,铈无明显异常,反映成矿流体具弱还原性;毒砂、黄铁矿微量元素含量呈现出随着成矿流体从早期到晚期的演化而减少,并普遍亏损高场强元素,富集LREE的特征;通过对黄铁矿、毒砂Hf/Sm、Nb/La和Th/La比值分析,表明八克金矿床成矿流体为富Cl型流体;从研究毒砂、黄铁矿Y/Ho、Zr/Hf和Nb/Ta比值变化范围,表明作用于围岩、矿体中的成矿流体从早期-晚期发生了改变,推测晚期成矿流体可能遭受了外来热液的混入;应用毒砂、黄铁矿中的Co/Ni比值,结合已有数据,表明成矿热液具有多来源的特点,成矿流体来源于大气降水与岩浆水不均匀混合。八克金矿是岩浆热液型的含金石英脉型金矿床。     

福建南平花岗伟晶岩中的电气石研究

电气石是南平伟晶岩和围岩中分布广泛的一种副矿物,根据化学成分,它们属于镁铁锂电气石亚族,其端员为铁(黑)电气石、镁电气石和锂电气石,其间还有一系列过渡矿物。南平伟晶岩中除未发现端员锂电气石外,其他端员及过渡系列电气石均十分发育,这在国内外同类伟晶岩中十分少见。不同成分电气石分布于不同类型伟晶岩及同一伟晶岩分异演化的不同阶段。本文在对电气石的化学成分、物理性质、产状等较详阐述基础上,对它们的演变规律及形成环境进行了讨论,这对于探讨南平伟晶岩的形成及寻找稀有金属伟晶岩有重要意义。     

Ordovician Carbonate Reservoir Bed Characteristics and ReservoirForming Conditions in the Lungudong Region of the Tarim Basin

<正>Basic characteristics of Ordovician carbonate reservoir beds in the Lungudong region of northeastern part of the Tarim Basin are described in detail and the reservoir-forming conditions of oil and gas are preliminarily discussed in this paper by collecting and sorting out a large amount of data.The carbonate reservoir beds are mainly developed in open-platform and platform marginal facies;the reservoir beds have large changes in and low average values of physical property;the main type is fractured reservoir beds with the fracture-porous type second.The reservoir bed development is chiefly controlled by the distribution of sedimentary facies,tectonic activity and karstification. Whereas the accumulation and distribution of hydrocarbons in the region are controlled by an advantageous structural location,a good reservoir-caprock combination and a favorable transporting system,with the distribution characterized by zones horizontally and belts vertically,the oil and gas are mainly concentrated in areas with structural uplift,densely developed fractures,and surface karst,a vertical vadose zone,and a horizontal undercurrent belt of palaeokarst.     

贵州晴隆锑矿稀土元素特征与成因探讨

对晴隆锑矿含矿层及围岩的稀土元素地球化学特征研究表明,其ΣREE变化较大,但REE配分模式较固定,以明显的负Ce异常、Eu正异常、分配曲线相对平缓为特征。对比该区玄武岩的稀土配分模式图后发现,两者差异较大。结合镜下岩(矿)石的结构和矿物组合特征以及野外实际资料,认为锑等矿质元素是盆地流体通过花鱼井、雷钵硐等NE向的深大断裂运移,由于氧化还原、温度和压力等物理化学条件的改变,沉积赋存于"大厂层"中。