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181.
Erosion is a complex process consisting of many components such as surface runoff, impact of raindrops, wind forces, soil and rock mechanics, etc. Trying to integrate all these processes into a physical model seems to be hopeless. In order to understand the variety of natural shapes and patterns produced by erosion we present an integrated statistical approach. Our model is based on simple physical constraints for the separation of amalgamated particles (abrasion) and for the movement of loose particles (denudation) and on the laws of statistics. After some simplifications, we obtain a nonlinear system of partial differential equations which is solved using finite volume techniques. The model is suitable for the formation of different types of rill systems and the episodic behaviour of erosion processes, a kind of self-organized criticality. Besides effects of inhomogeneities, e.g. the formation of terraces can be investigated. 相似文献
182.
本文针对加拿大地球物理学家EdoNgland教授提出的问题,对M—P广义逆矩阵的递推算法进行了探分论述探讨的初步结果和对Greville递推算法的扩充。文中对算法的扩充给出严格的证明。 相似文献
183.
简述了土的边界面本构模型国内外研究状况,阐述了其基本思想。对边界面模型作了简要评述,提出了边界面模型研究的发展趋向。 相似文献
184.
Yucca Mountain, the proposed site for the high-level nuclear waste repository, is located just south of where the present
water table begins a sharp rise in elevation. This large hydraulic gradient is a regional feature that extends for over 100 km.
Yucca Mountain and its vicinity are underlain by faulted and fractured tuffs with hydraulic conductivities controlled by flow
through the fractures. Close to and parallel with the region of large hydraulic gradient, and surrounding the core of the
Timber Mountain Caldera, there is a 10- to 20-km-wide zone containing few faults and thus, most likely, few open fractures.
Consequently, this zone should have a relatively low hydraulic conductivity, and this inference is supported by the available
conductivity measurements in wells near the large hydraulic gradient. Also, slug injection tests indicate significantly higher
pressures for fracture opening in wells located near the large hydraulic gradient compared to the opening pressures in wells
further to the south, hence implying that lower extensional stresses prevail to the north with consequently fewer open fractures
there. Analytical and numerical modeling shows that such a boundary between media of high and low conductivity can produce
the observed, large hydraulic gradient, with the high conductivity medium having a lower elevation than the water table. Further,
as fractures can close due to tectonic activity, the conductivity of the Yucca Mountain tuffs can be reduced to a value near
that for the hydraulic barrier due to strain release by a moderate earthquake. Under these conditions, simulations show that
the elevation of the steady-state water table could rise between 150 and 250 m at the repository site. This elevation rise
is due to the projected shift in the location of the large hydraulic gradient to the south in response to a moderate earthquake,
near magnitude 6, along one of the major normal faults adjacent to Yucca Mountain. As the proposed repository would only be
200–400 m above the present water table, this predicted rise in the water table indicates a potential hazard involving water
intrusion.
Received: 7 June 1996 / Accepted: 19 November 1996 相似文献
185.
地震和测井资料联合反演储层物性参数的方法 总被引:2,自引:0,他引:2
为了充分利用测井资料较高的纵向分辨率及其反映井壁周围物性直接准确的特点和地震资料良好的横向可追踪性,针对厚储层和薄储层地震—地质模型分别提出了利用测井和地震资料联合反演纵横波速度和密度参数的方法。理论模型的计算结果表明,反演方法是切实可行的 相似文献
186.
H. J. Nijhuis 《International Journal of Earth Sciences》1997,86(2):322-331
The prediction of the hydrocarbon potential of a specific trap or of a number of specific traps (venture), referred to herein
as prospect appraisal, concerns a probabilistic exercise based on the quantification of geology in terms of structural closure,
reservoir quality, hydrocarbon charge, and the retention potential of the seal. Its objectives include: (a) prediction of
the hydrocarbon volumes that could be present in the trap from an analysis of its geologic attributes; (b) the amount of uncertainty
introduced in the volumetric prediction by the uncertainties in the subsurface geology; (c) the risk that one or more of the
essential attributes of the prospect are underdeveloped and recoverable reserves are absent. The uncertainty of the geologic
input requires a probabilistic approach, for which the Monte Carlo procedure is well suited.
Prospect appraisal forms the basis for decision-making in oil exploration and development and, therefore, should be reliable,
consistent, and auditable. This requires the use of a consistent methodology, the development of reliable models to quantify
the geologic processes involved, and the collection of comprehensive and relational databases for the many geologic variables.
As a result of data availability, uncertainty and risk tend to increase strongly from mature, producing basins to areas of
frontier exploration. This may complicate management of exploration portfolios.
Received: 1 July 1996/Accepted: 25 November 1996 相似文献
187.
R. M. W. Musson 《Natural Hazards》1997,15(2-3):105-119
Although the U.K. is in an area of only low to moderate seismicity, the seismic hazard is sufficient to pose a threat to sensitive structures such as chemical plants and nuclear facilities. In quantifying the level of hazard by conventional probabilistic methodology, however, some problems arise in attempting to interpret earthquake data in terms of geological structure and faults. In the U.K., not only is it impossible to identify any demonstrably active faults, but also it is extremely difficult to discern any relationship between the pattern of seismicity and local or regional geological structure.This study discusses the use of two zonation approaches which complement each other in such a way that the general character and trend of seismicity is preserved. In one approach, the zonation is informed by the structural geology, where possible; geological zonation is avoided if it produces sources with heterogeneous seismicity. In the other approach, the record of past earthquakes is divided up into very small zones around individual epicentres or groups of epicentres, the size of each zone usually being proportional to the uncertainty in the epicentral determination of the appropriate event. This zonation preserves an observed tendency of some British earthquakes to repeat themselves. It is suggested that, in intraplate areas such as the U.K., it is often inappropriate to attempt to model individual fault sources. No faults in the U.K. are provably active. Because an earthquake of moderate size can occur on a very short fault segment, it is impractical to restrict fault modelling to major features. Even the two largest U.K. faults, suspected to be active, pose problems in attributing historical seismicity to them as distinct features. 相似文献
188.
Federico Murrone Fabio Rossi Pierluigi Claps 《Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment (SERRA)》1997,11(6):483-510
A conceptual-stochastic approach to short time runoff data modelling is proposed, according to the aim of reproducing the
hydrological aspects of the streamflow process and of preserving as much as possible the dynamics of the process itself. This
latter task implies preservation of streamflow characteristics at higher scales of aggregation and, within a conceptual framework,
involves compatibility with models proposed for the runoff process at those scales. At a daily time scale the watershed response
to the effective rainfall is considered as deriving from the response of three linear reservoirs, respectively representing
contributions to streamflows of large deep aquifers, with over-year response lag, of aquifers which run dry by the end of
the dry season and of subsurface runoff. The surface runoff component is regarded as an uncorrelated point process. Considering
the occurrences of effective rainfall events as generated by an independent Poisson process, the output of the linear system
represents a conceptually-based multiple shot noise process. Model identification and parameter estimation are supported by
information related to the aggregated runoff process, in agreement to the conceptual framework proposed, and this allows parameter
parsimony, efficient estimation and effectiveness of the streamflow reproduction. Good performances emerged from the model
application and testing made with reference to some daily runoff series from Italian basins. 相似文献
189.
190.
通过对地震时人员死亡、受伤、房屋破坏和直接经济损失4个灾害损失指标的函数转换,使得用不同的损失指标判别灾害等级的标准取得了统一.然后,应用灰色聚类方法划分地震灾害等级,并用灰色关联度排序方法对不同的灾情进行分析比较.同时还对1966~1983年我国大陆7次重要地震和1995年我国大陆17次地震进行了灾害等级划分和不同灾情的分析比较.结果表明,该方法基本可定量准确地评价地震灾情 相似文献