地震灾害风险评估及减灾策略研究——以贵州罗甸县为例

为探究贵州省地震灾害风险薄弱环节,减轻地震灾害风险,以贵州省罗甸县为示范,采用地震危险性概率分析方法对各乡镇进行危险性分析,开展地震灾害承灾体现场抽样调查,通过层次分析法和问卷调查的方式,首次构建乡镇级别的地震灾害风险和减灾能力指标体系,评估各乡镇地震灾害综合指数和程度,计算各乡镇地震灾害风险指数,确定红水河镇为高风险区、罗悃镇为中风险区、木引等7个乡镇为低风险区,并从建筑物设防、地震地质灾害及水库地震等角度剖析罗甸县地震灾害特点,从农村危房改造、移民搬迁、地质灾害防护及交通等方面提出减小地震灾害风险的建议。     

内马铁路一期工程局部不规则二维场地地震反应分析

基于内马铁路一期工程地质资料,利用ABAQUS有限元软件建立某局部不规则二维场地有限元计算模型,利用Python语言进行二次开发,编制二维等效线性化计算程序。开展50年超越概率63%、10%和2%水准下的土层地震反应分析计算,对不规则地形不同位置处的地震动峰值加速度和频谱特性进行对比分析。研究结果表明,不规则地形对地震动特性的影响显著。本文研究结果对内马铁路一期工程地震动参数确定具有指导意义,同时可为跨越不规则地形工程结构抗震设计提供参考。     

纪念中国大陆科学钻探实施15周年、国际大陆科学钻探委员会成立20周年

大陆科学钻探是“入地”的重要手段,是“深入地球内部的望远镜”。中国大陆科学钻探事业开展15周年以来,取得重要进展,获得全球地学界的高度关注,特别是2001年实施的中国第一口大陆科学深钻 （5158m）,成果辉煌,影响巨大。继后,又开展了青海湖环境科学钻探、松辽盆地白垩纪科学钻探、柴达木盐湖环境资源科学钻探,汶川地震断裂带科学钻探以及中国大陆科钻资源集成计划,总共钻进约 35km,显示了中国科学钻探方兴未艾的景象。为纪念国际大陆科学钻探20周年（1996~2016）和中国大陆科学钻探实施15周年（2001~2016）,本文回顾中国大陆科学钻探实施15年来的艰辛和奋斗的历程,展望中国大陆科学钻探的未来。     

6600 years of earthquake record in the Julian Alps (Lake Bohinj,Slovenia)

Sequences of lake sediments often form long and continuous records that may be sensitive recorders of seismic shaking. A multi‐proxy analysis of Lake Bohinj sediments associated with a well‐constrained chronology was conducted to reconstruct Holocene seismic activity in the Julian Alps (Slovenia). A seismic reflection survey and sedimentological analyses identified 29 homogenite‐type deposits related to mass‐wasting deposits. The most recent homogenites can be linked to historical regional earthquakes (i.e. 1348 ad , 1511 ad and 1690 ad ) with strong epicentral intensity [greater than ‘damaging’ (VIII ) on the Medvedev–Sponheuer–Karnik scale]. The correlation between the historical earthquake data set and the homogenites identified in a core isolated from local stream inputs, allows interpretation of all similar deposits as earthquake related. This work extends the earthquake chronicle of the last 6600 years in this area with a total of 29 events recorded. The early Holocene sedimentary record is disturbed by a seismic event (6617 ± 94 cal yr bp ) that reworked previously deposited sediment and led to a thick sediment deposit identified in the seismic survey. The period between 3500 cal yr bp and 2000 cal yr bp is characterized by a major destabilization in the watershed by human activities that led to increases in erosion and sedimentation rates. This change increased the lake's sensitivity to recording an earthquake (earthquake‐sensitivity threshold index) with the occurrence of 72 turbidite‐type deposits over this period. The high turbidite frequency identified could be the consequence of this change in lake earthquake sensitivity and thus these turbidites could be triggered by earthquake shaking, as other origins are discarded. This study illustrates why it is not acceptable to propose a return period for seismic activity recorded in lake sediment if the sedimentation rate varies significantly.     

孔隙性砂岩中单条变形带与簇状变形带的特征与区别——以远安地堑上白垩统红花套组中变形带为例

孔隙性砂岩中的变形带研究近年来取得长足进展,但有关单条变形带与簇状变形带如何区分和界定仍是一个较模糊的问题。本文以远安地堑上白垩统红花套组高孔砂岩中发育的剪切增强压实带和压实剪切带为例,对单条及簇状变形带的特征和区别做出系统分析。研究表明,虽然单条变形带的长度、宽度、错断位移、凸起高度等均明显小于簇状变形带,但是不同运动学成因的变形带宏观特征、微观结构不同,因此不能单纯以规模大小区分二者,需要结合带密度将簇状变形带与变形带列、网格构造等相区分,还需要结合其微观结构特征进行准确鉴定。单条及簇状剪切增强压实带特征类似,均不具核心碎裂带,颗粒主要为中等破碎,多表现为多个不连续分布的碎裂核。簇状剪切增强压实带内部的非均质性更强。单条压实剪切带具有核心碎裂带,依剪切力大小不同,其核心碎裂带内颗粒粉碎程度及边缘过渡带宽度不同,常伴随微小剪切缝痕迹。簇状压实剪切带在镜下可清晰识别出不同的核心碎裂带、带间区域及微小剪切缝,可见S—C组构和断续分布的滑动面。单条及簇状变形带的发育会不同程度地改变储层的物性并可能会对油气运移和开采产生影响。     

区域数字地震台网实时速报系统研究

根据我国地震监测台网的发展趋势,提出了区域数字地震台网实时速报系统的发展目标,研究了实现这一目标应解决的实时数据流接收、震相自动识别、震相可靠性处理、实时地震定位、震相到时等值线实时绘制、地震震级的实时计算、地震动强度分布图的实时绘制等问题.我们编制了一套实时地震速报软件,实现了上述功能,并用福建数字地震台网记录的地震事件进行软件功能测试.测试结果表明:对于网内地震,软件处理结果基本达到中国地震局地震速报评比满分的要求,速报时间缩短至30～50 s.此外,通过实时仿真技术,系统可给出实际观测到的PGA、PGV、PGD等值线图,可以为应急救灾确定重灾区和有感范围提供帮助.     

制造业活动地理转移视角下的中国产业集群问题

在简要回顾产业集群理论的基础上,在制造业活动地理转移的视角下,结合案例重新审视了我国劳动密集型产业集群的形成及发展.作者认为,一些锁定在低成本竞争的集群正在或已经老化,甚至衰亡.另一些集群中的企业有过度集聚的问题,还有一些中小企业集聚的区域根据产业特征需要增加产业集中度.因为集群的这些问题,随成本上升,出现了集群中企业的加工制造环节外移的现象.这种现象挑战了新产业区理论中集群是"在流动的全球空间中的粘结的区位"的观点.根据集群中企业外移现象,就产业承接地的规划和发展,以及转出地那些正在升级的集群的地理稳定性和生产者服务业的发展问题,提出了几点看法.     

层式滤波隔震垫

根据震相图展示的地震波运动规律,利用滚动摩擦阻力只相当滑动摩擦阻力1／40～1／60的力学效应,将轴承钢球呈层状重叠组合成隔震垫,可获得重复滤波效果,能高效降低地震对房屋建筑的作用力,达到提高地震安全度,降低建筑成本、节约建筑资源的目的。     

A density-based approach for detecting network-constrained clusters in spatial point events

Existing spatial clustering methods primarily focus on points distributed in planar space. However, occurrence locations and background processes of most human mobility events within cities are constrained by the road network space. Here we describe a density-based clustering approach for objectively detecting clusters in network-constrained point events. First, the network-constrained Delaunay triangulation is constructed to facilitate the measurement of network distances between points. Then, a combination of network kernel density estimation and potential entropy is executed to determine the optimal neighbourhood size. Furthermore, all network-constrained events are tested under a null hypothesis to statistically identify core points with significantly high densities. Finally, spatial clusters can be formed by expanding from the identified core points. Experimental comparisons performed on the origin and destination points of taxis in Beijing demonstrate that the proposed method can ascertain network-constrained clusters precisely and significantly. The resulting time-dependent patterns of clusters will be informative for taxi route selections in the future.     

河北省地震局行政值班管理系统的设计与实现

近年来,各级党委政府全面推进机关事业单位值班工作制度化、规范化和标准化,地震系统行政值班人员数量、频次、要求越来越高,责任越来越大.针对河北省地震局行政值班工作的人工管理现状,科研人员结合当前值班规则与工作需求,设计开发一套河北省地震局行政值班管理系统,通过模块实现在线自动排班换班、实时更新排班情况与值班次数统计等功能...