巨大灾害后的脆弱性：台湾集集地震后中部地区土地利用与覆盖变迁

自2004年底的南亚大海啸、美国遭受飓风侵袭以来，人类社会如何采取应对措施以降低灾害的冲击成为国际科学界的一个重要议题。台湾在几年前也遭遇巨大的地震灾害，1999年9月21日凌晨，震中发源于台湾中部、芮氏规模7.3级的巨大地震，造成全台湾2 000多人死亡，8 000多人受伤，除了造成直接的经济社会损失外，也造成山区土石松滑、地层松动与山崩，直接改变了地表的覆盖状况。在后续几年台风所带来的强风豪雨下，丰沛的降雨量使原本因地震而松滑的土石大量滑落，造成严重的土石流灾害，河床也因土石泥沙的堆积而被提升，形成严重的洪患。这些自然环境的变化不仅再次改变地表的覆盖，也使重建后的小区面临极大的灾害风险。此次冲击促使当地居民重新思考人地关系之意义，通过重建过程凝聚小区意识，发展有别于过去的土地利用形态。因此为检验当地居民对灾害的暴露程度、敏感性与适应能力，本研究采用近年来在国际环境灾害研究课题备受重视的脆弱性研究途径，并利用野外调查以及遥测与地理信息系统分析呈现地震后的土地覆盖变化。希望通过分析人与环境系统的变化，以及人类社群的社会内部固有特质，归纳出重要机制以发展降低脆弱性的策略。 研究结果显示，灾害是人与环境耦合系统(coupled system)共同形成的结果，非单一的独立事件，也不是不可避免的；且地方的脆弱性具有演化与多元化的特性，同一地方下不同族群与个体对灾害的脆弱性皆不同，因此灾害研究必须更关注于灾害发生的机制，相关的政策与策略也必须建立在更小的社会与空间单元上。     

Macroseismic study of the Potenza (southern Italy), earthquake of 5 May 1990

The aim of this paper is to define the macroseismic field of the 5 May 1990 Potenza earthquake, analysing about 3000 questionnaire forms together with the results of the direct inquiries carried out in the field. The study evidences the seismic vulnerability of the Potenza district and of the whole of southern Italy in general, due to the low resistance characteristics of the old constructions and a lack of seismic prevention. Besides, geomorphological failure increases hazardous situations at the earthquake's occurrence. This earthquake provided a good test for checking and improving the ING macroseismic data collection procedures.     

Crustal seismic velocity in the Marche region (Central Italy): computation of a minimum 1-D model with seismic station corrections

A 1-D velocity model for the Marche region (Central Italy) was computed by inverting P- and S-wave arrival times of local earthquakes. A total of 160 seismic events with a minimum of ten observations, a travel time residual ≤0.8 s and an azimuthal gap lower than 180° have been selected. This “minimum 1-D velocity model” is complemented by station corrections, which can be used to take into account possible near-surface velocity heterogeneities beneath each station. Using this new P-wave velocity model and the program HYPOELLIPSE (Lahr 1999), the selected local events were relocated. Earthquake locations in this study are of higher quality with respect to the original ones. The obtained minimum 1-D velocity model can be used to improve the routine earthquake locations and represents a further step towards more detailed seismotectonic studies of the area.     

Behaviour of a rupture of the 21 June 2000 earthquake in South Iceland as revealed in an asphalted car park

A major earthquake (M=6.6) occurred on 21 June 2000, in South Iceland. This paper presents an unusual example of left-lateral strike-slip displacement recorded in a newly asphalted car park surface through a mechanically consistent pattern of open fissures and pressure ridges resulting from simple shear and rotation. Measurement of these features allows accurate reconstruction of the local deformation. The behaviour of the asphalt layer resembles that of analogue physical models, especially in terms of rotations induced by shear deformation. It is finally shown that through a wide range of scales some basic patterns associating rotation and opposite senses of strike-slip exist in the South Iceland Seismic Zone.     

The Athens earthquake (7 September 1999): intensity distribution and controlling factors

The Athens earthquake, M_s=5.9, that occurred on 7th September 1999 with epicenter located at the southern flank of Mount Parnitha (Greece, Attiki) according to instrumental data, is attributed to the reactivation of an ESE–WNW south- dipping fault without surficial expression. The earthquake caused a large number of casualties and extensive damage within an extended area. Damage displayed significant differentiation from place to place, as well as a peculiar geographic distribution. Based on geological, tectonic and morphological characteristics of the affected area and on the elaboration of damage recordings for intensity evaluation, it can be safely suggested that intensity distribution was the result of the combination of a number of parameters both on macro and microscale. On the macroscale, the parameters are the strike of the seismogenic fault, seismic wave directivity effects and to an old NNE–SSW tectonic structure, and they are also responsible for the maximum intensity arrangement in two perpendicular directions ESE–WNW and NNE–SSW. On the microscale, site foundation formations, old tectonic structures buried under recent formations and morphology are the parameters that differentiated intensities within the affected area.     

Medical Geography: A Promising Field of Application for Geostatistics

The analysis of health data and putative covariates, such as environmental, socio-economic, behavioral or demographic factors, is a promising application for geostatistics. However, it presents several methodological challenges that arise from the fact that data is typically aggregated over irregular spatial supports and consists of a numerator and a denominator (e.g., population size). This paper presents an overview of recent developments in the field of health geostatistics, with an emphasis on three main steps in the analysis of areal health data: (1) estimation of the underlying disease risk, (2) detection of areas with significantly higher risk, and (3) analysis of relationships with putative risk factors. The analysis is illustrated by using age-adjusted cervix cancer mortality rates recorded from 1970 to 1994 of 118 counties in four Western USA states. Poisson kriging allows the filtering of noisy mortality rates computed from small population sizes, enhancing the correlation with two putative explanatory variables: percentage of habitants living below the federally defined poverty line, and percentage of Hispanic females. Area-to-point kriging formulation creates continuous maps of mortality risk, reducing the visual bias associated with the interpretation of choropleth maps. Stochastic simulation is used to generate realizations of cancer mortality maps, which allows one to quantify how uncertainty of the spatial distribution of health outcomes translates into uncertainty of the location of clusters of high values or the correlation with covariates. Finally, geographically-weighted regression highlights the non-stationarity in the explanatory power of covariates; the higher mortality values along the coast are better explained by the two covariates than the lower risk recorded in Utah.     

汶川地震地质灾害发育特点及动因机制分析

汶川地震地质灾害具有发生范围大、密度大、明显的成群成带性、灾害类型以崩塌滑坡为主、且崩塌远多于滑坡以及次生地质灾害将长期存在的特点.这些特点主要是由于地震波自(地壳)内而外的、纵波和横波的连环传播导致山体先是结构性损伤,继而使表层岩土体失稳而造成的.岩性、地形地貌以及岩层倾向的差异也在一定程度上影响着灾害类型的发育和空间分布.汶川地震次生地质灾害防治将是一个任务艰巨、过程漫长、前所未有、充满科技挑战的一项系统工程.     

建设数字地震 促进防震减灾

本文提出了“数字地震”的概念 ,讨论它的主要内容和问题 ,并对建设“数字地震”提出若干建设性意见。     

Short-term earthquake prediction: Current status of seismo-electromagnetics

Loss of human lives as a result of earthquakes is caused overwhelmingly by the collapse of buildings within less than a few minutes of main shocks. The most urgent countermeasure consists of two key elements. One is strengthening of weak structures and the other is short-term earthquake prediction. Short-term prediction needs precursors. Although some promising precursors are reported, the prevailing views in Japan and elsewhere are overly pessimistic. The pessimism largely roots in the fact that short-term precursors are generally non-seismic and tools developed for seismology are not designed to detect them. Nonetheless, nationally funded large-scale earthquake prediction programs always emphasize the need to reinforce seismometer networks. They do not take into account the views of those in the science community who point to the importance of non-seismic precursors. While there are well-founded causes to be skeptical, the situation needs to be improved. One reason for skepticism is that the observations of precursors have not yet been perfect enough and another is that some important fundamental aspects of non-seismic precursors are still unresolved. We review some of these problems.     

Spatial mapping of earthquake hazard parameters in the Hindukush–Pamir Himalaya and adjacent regions: Implication for future seismic hazard

The study deals spatial mapping of earthquake hazard parameters like annual and 100-years mode along with their 90% probability of not being exceeded (NBE) in the Hindukush–Pamir Himalaya and adjoining regions. For this purpose, we applied a straightforward and most robust method known as Gumbel’s third asymptotic distribution of extreme values (GIII). A homogeneous and complete earthquake catalogue during the period 1900–2010 with magnitude M_W ⩾ 4.0 is utilized to estimate these earthquake hazard parameters. An equal grid point mesh, of 1° longitude X 1° latitude, is chosen to produce detailed earthquake hazard maps. This performance allows analysis of the localized seismicity parameters and representation of their regional variations as contour maps. The estimated result of annual mode with 90% probability of NBE is expected to exceed the values of M_W 6.0 in the Sulaiman–Kirthar ranges of Pakistan and northwestern part of the Nepal and surroundings in the examined region. The 100-years mode with 90% probability of NBE is expected to exceed the value of M_W 8.0 in the Hindukush–Pamir Himalaya with Caucasus mountain belt, the Sulaiman–Kirthar ranges of Pakistan, northwestern part of the Nepal and surroundings, the Kangra–Himanchal Pradesh and Kashmir of India. The estimated high values of earthquake hazard parameters are mostly correlated with the main tectonic regimes of the examined region. The spatial variations of earthquake hazard parameters reveal that the examined region exhibits more complexity and has high crustal heterogeneity. The spatial maps provide a brief atlas of the earthquake hazard in the region.