输水管网模糊地震可靠性的 Monte Carlo 法分析程序

本文详细介绍了笔者所建议的运用模糊图理论和方法进行城市输水管网的地震可靠性分析途径和计算程序。对于输水管网中每段管道的震害预测,建立了相应的专家系统。在此基础上,定义了管网系统的模糊可靠性,更好地反映了人们对于管道损坏状态估计的模糊性和对可靠性要求上的模糊性。以模糊矩阵来描述输水管网的状态是十分方便的。通过计算模糊矩阵的传递闭包,极易找出最短路、关键段等。由于地震作用和管道抗震能力都是随机的,因此整个管网系统的可靠性分析是藉助Monle Carlo法进行的。以Monle Carlo法对模糊图进行分析,从而得到管网的地震可靠性,这还是首次。用PASCAL和PROLOG编制了在微机上实用的计算机程序,特别是以智能语言PROLOG编制的程序,更有许多特色。由于采用了一些技巧,使在微机上可以分析相当大的系统,为城市抗震防灾工作提供了一个有力的工具。     

On self-similarity of premonitory patterns in the regions of natural and induced seismicity

Anticipating the scale invariance of rock fracturing processes, we applied Keilis-Borok’s algorithm M8, originally designed for identifying times of increased probability (TIPS) of occurrence of strong earthquakes (M < 8.0), retrospectively to Koyna earthquakes which occurred in the region after the impoundment of the Shivaji Sagar reservoir in 1962. The algorithm which enables diagnosis of TIPS from the 7th year onwards after the commencement of the earliest available data set showed that the 5.3 magnitude earthquake of 20 September 1980 indeed occurred within a time of increased probability. This result, apart from its potential application to recognizing future TIPS in the region, points to selfsimilarity between the premonitory patterns of natural and induced earthquakes and to scale-invariant nature of their processes. Further, a typical precursory rise in seismicity followed by a relative quiescence was also found to precede all the three larger earthquakes of the sequence.     

重力仪高频信息和地脉动的观测研究

本文介绍了应用电磁反馈零位检测技术改装的重力仪进行高频信息的观测。阐述重力仪高频信息频谱分布特征、数据采集、数字计算和随机信息的处理方法。利用高频信息可以很好地观测和研究地脉动,给出北京香山地震台利用重力仪高频信息观测所得的地脉动功率谱。分析了地脉动特征及其与台风过程的关系;讨论了某些大地震前所出现的地脉动异常现象。得出北京地区正常地脉动频率分布范围为0.13-0.32Hz,优势频率为0.2Hz,相应的卓越周期为5s的脉动频率异常,也可能在地脉动的正常频率处（0.2Hz左右）,出现幅度很大的脉动幅度异常,后者又往往与台风引起的幅度异常相混淆。     

我国西北部分地区地壳-上地幔电性横向变化特征与地震活动的关系

由50余个测点的大地电磁测深资料,讨论了该区的地壳-上地幔电性横向变化特征。按照上地幔第一低阻层顶面埋深,将测区划分为四类地区:浅埋深(55-90公里)、中浅埋深(90-110公里)、中深埋深(110-160公里)和深埋深(160-250公里)。讨论了本区六次大震例的深部电性背景。指出了上地幔顶部的梯度带地区、地壳内电性横向变化剧烈的地区和地壳内存在局部特殊增厚的低阻层地区将可以作为潜在震源区的深部电性判据之一     

新疆特克斯-昭苏地震断层的发现及有关问题的讨论

1986年作者在特克斯-昭苏盆地首次发现长70公里、最大垂直和水平位移均达8米的地震断裂带和地震形变现象,并认为是1716年地震时形成的。地震断裂带的展布和运动方式,与科博河-昭管处断裂相一致。特克斯断裂带是一条复杂的断裂带,它由多条断裂组成。1716年地震表明该断裂带具有新的活动性     

1987年9月19日富蕴北5.8级地震

1987年6月19日新疆富蕴县可可托海镇西北发生了Ms=5.8级地震,震中位于喀依尔提河与阿拉散河交汇处,震中烈度为Ⅶ度,等震线长轴方向与可可托海——二台断裂基本一致。震中区人员无伤亡,仅有山石滚落;Ⅵ、Ⅴ度区内的土平房、有不同程度的损坏个别砖平房,楼房出现裂缝。这次地震属于孤立型地震,震前有中短期异常。     

Probability of earthquake recurrence with nonuniform stress rates and time-dependent failure

Current methods for calculation of long-term probabilities for the recurrence of large earthquakes on specific fault segments are based upon models of the faulting process that implicitly assume constant stress rates during the interval separating earthquakes and instantaneous failure at a critical stress threshold. However, observations indicate that the process of stress recovery following an earthquake involves rate variations at all time scales in addition to stress steps caused by nearby earthquakes. Additionally, the existence of foreshocks, aftershocks and possible precursory processes suggest that there may be significant time dependence of the earthquake nucleation process. A method for determining the conditional probabilities for earthquake occurrence under conditions of irregular stressing is developed that could be useful at all time scales including those pertinent to short-and intermediate-term prediction. Used with models for earthquake occurrence at a stress threshold, the addition of variable stressing introduces a simple scaling of the conditional probabilities by stress level and stress rate. A model for the time-dependent nucleation of earthquake slip has been proposed recently that is based upon laboratory observations of fault strength. This failure criterion results in large but relatively short duration changes in the probability of earthquake recurrence particularly following stress steps. Applied to populations of earthquakes the models predicts a 1/t decay of seismicity following stress steps as observed for aftershocks and for frequency of foreshock-mainshock pairs. The model suggests that variations of seismicity rates of small earthquakes in the nucleation zone of the expected earthquake directly indicate variations in probability of recurrence of the large earthquake.     

Hydrologic precursors to earthquakes: A review

This review summarizes reports of anomalous flow rates or pressures of groundwater, oil, or gas that have been interpreted as earthquake precursors. Both increases and decreases of pressure and flow rate have been observed, at distances up to several hundred kilometers from the earthquake epicenter, with precursor times ranging from less than one day to more than one year. Although information that might rule out nontectonic causes does not appear in many published accounts of hydrologic anomalies, several recent studies have critically evaluated the possible influences of barometric pressure, rainfall, and groundwater or oil exploitation. Anomalies preceding the 1976 Tangshan, China, and the 1978 Izu-Oshima-Kinkai, Japan, earthquakes are especially well-documented and worthy of further examination.Among hydrologic precursors, pressure head changes in confined subsurface reservoirs are those most amenable to quantitative interpretation in terms of crustal strain. The response of pressure head to earth tides determines coefficients of proportionality between pressure head and crustal strain. The same coefficients of proportionality should govern the fluid pressure response to any crustal strain field in which fluid flow in the reservoir is unimportant. Water level changes in response to independently recorded tectonic events, such as earthquakes and aseismic fault creep, provide evidence that a calibration based on response to earth tides may be applied to crustal strains of tectonic origin.Several models of earthquake generation predict accelerating stable slip on part of the future rupture plane. If precursory slip has moment less than or equal to that of the impending earthquake, then the coseismic volume strain is an upper bound for precursory volume strain. Although crustal strain can be only crudely estimated from most reported pressure head anomalies, the sizes of many anomalies within 150 kilometers of earthquake epicenters appear consistent with this upper bound. In contrast, water level anomalies at greater epicentral distances appear to be larger than this bound by several orders of magnitude.It is clear that water level monitoring can yield information about the earthquake generation process, but progress higes on better documentation of the data.     

Mechanisms of seismic quiescences

In the past decade there have been major advances in understanding the seismic cycle in terms of the recognition of characteristic patterns of seismicity over the entire tectonic loading cycle. The most distinctive types of patterns are seismic quiescences, of which three types can be recognized:post-seismic quiescence, which occurs in the region of the rupture zone of an earthquake and persists for a substantial fraction of the recurrence time following the earthquake,intermediate-term quiescences, which appear over a similar region and persist for several years prior to large plate-rupturing earthquakes, andshort-term quiescences, which are pronounced lulls in premonitory swarms that occur in the hypocentral region hours or days before an earthquake. Although the frequency with which intermediate-term and short-term quiescences precede earthquakes is not known, and the statistical significance of some of the former has been challenged, there is a need, if this phenomena is to be considered a possibly real precursor, to consider physical mechanisms that may be responsible for them.The characteristic features of these quiescences are reviewed, and possible mechanisms for their cause are discussed. Post-seismic quiescence can be readily explained by any simple model of the tectonic loading cycle as due to the regional effect of the stress-drop of the previous principal earthquake. The other types of quiescence require significant modification to any such simple model. Of the possibilities considered, only two seem viable in predicting the observed phenomena, dilatancy hardening and slip weakening. Intermediate-term quiescences typically occur over a region equal to or several times the size of the rupture zone of the later earthquake and exhibit a relationship between the quiescence duration and size of the earthquake: they thus involve regional hardening or stress relaxation and agree with the predictions of the dilatancy-diffusion theory. Short-term quiescences, on the other hand, are more likely explained by fault zone dilatancy hardening and/or slip weakening within a small nucleation zone. Because seismicity is a locally relaxing process, seismicity should follow a behaviour known in rock mechanics as the Kaiser effect, in which only a very slight increase in strength, due to dilatancy hardening or decrease in stress due to slip weakening, is required to cause quiescence. This is in contrast to other precursory phenomena predicted by dilatancy, which require large dilatant strains and complete dilatancy hardening.Lamont-Doherty Geological Observatory     

An Examination of Behavior and Hazards Faced by Physically Disabled People During the Loma Prieta Earthquake

There is a need to study hazards faced by physically disabled people during earthquakes. A literature review showed the importance of occupant behavior as a factor that contributes to casualty during earthquakes. A survey questionnaire was used to study the behavioral responses of 33 disabled residents, none of whom sustained injury, during the Loma Prieta earthquake of 17 October 1989. An occupant risk analysis methodology was developed to study the sequence of activities of the disabled people. Severe restrictions in the physical capabilities of the respondents did not appear to increase their exposure to hazards. Overall, the physically disabled occupants did not think of themselves as vulnerable, and those who felt vulnerable initiated self-protective action in response to the hazards present in their immediate surroundings.