协方差阵二次型估计可容许的充要条件

该文研究协方差阵Σ的二次型容许估计问题。设 y1,y2 ,… ,yn　 iid,n≥ 2 ,y1与 p维正态分布 N(β,Σ)有相同的前四阶矩。其中 β=(β1,β2 ,… ,βp)′∈Rp与 Σ=(σij) p× p>0均未知。记 y=Δ(y1,y2 ,… ,yn)′。在损失函数 L (d ,Σ) =tr(d -Σ) 2 下给出Σ的二次型估计在 D={ y′Ay:A≥ 0 ,A∈Rn× n}容许的充要条件     

STUDY ON THE MULTIVARIATE STATISTICAL ESTIMATION OF TROPICAL CYCLONE INTENSITY USING FY-3 MWRI BRIGHTNESS TEMPERATURE DATA

A technique for estimating tropical cyclone (TC) intensity over the Western North Pacific utilizing FY-3 Microwave Imager (MWRI) data is developed. As a first step, we investigated the relationship between the FY-3 MWRI brightness temperature (TB) parameters, which are computed in concentric circles or annuli of different radius in different MWRI frequencies, and the TC maximum wind speed (Vmax) from the TC best track data. We found that the parameters of lower frequency channels’ minimum TB, mean TB and ratio of pixels over the threshold TB with a radius of 1.0 or 1.5 degrees from the center give higher correlation. Then by applying principal components analysis (PCA) and multiple regression method, we established an estimation model and evaluated it using independent verification data, with the RMSE being 13 kt. The estimated Vmax is always stronger in the early stages of development, but slightly weaker toward the mature stage, and a reversal of positive and negative bias takes place with a boundary of around 70 kt. For the TC that has a larger error, we found that they are often with less organized and asymmetric cloud pattern, so the classification of TC cloud pattern will help improve the acuracy of the estimated TC intensity, and with the increase of statistical samples the accuracy of the estimated TC intensity will also be improved.     

基于星载接收机的导航卫星自主信号监测理论研究

随着用户对卫星导航系统导航电文质量要求的提高,传统的故障监测和报警方法的响应速度已不能满足用户的需求。在分析星载接收机监测主要故障的基础上,介绍了星栽接收机的监测原理并设计了一套监测方案,该方案能够极大地提高监测卫星广播电文质量的响应速度,基本上能满足卫星导航系统导航电文质量实时监测的要求,仿真计算取得了较好结果。     

数字地质调查系统在西藏驱龙矿区资源量 估算中的应用

埋藏于地下的矿产资源形态千差万别,产状复杂多变,数据来源多种多样。如何科学、合理、准确、灵活、高效地估算在一定工程控制条件下的资源量,完成资源量估算的各类图件、报表制作满足不同工作的需求是目前急需解决的问题。将数字地质调查系统技术运用到资源量估算领域是解决问题的有效途径。数字地质调查系统是基于GIS技术并在计算机软硬件支持下,融合计算机图形学、计算机人工智能和数据库技术于一体,实现对多源、海量地学实体数据采集、管理、存储、处理、成图、分析、成果输出等全过程的数据表达,实现了从野外工作到成果汇交的全数字化过程的无缝连接。通过在驱龙矿区的应用,充分体现了系统对多源、海量地学数据进行科学、合理、准确、灵活、高效的处理能力。     

南昌市居民幸福评价及影响因素研究

对南昌市居民幸福感问卷调查数据进行因子分析,探究出影响居民幸福感的潜在因素.通过结构方程模型定量分析了影响居民幸福各因素之间的关系,并建立指标体系评价了南昌市居民幸福的总体情况.研究发现：影响南昌市居民幸福感的潜在变量主要包括自然环境、社会环境、名利状况和身心健康,自然环境与社会环境的关联度最大,其次是名利状况对身心健康的影响.从幸福评价结果中可以看出,影响因子指数最低的是名利状况,而身心健康指数最高.对南昌市而言,经济需要进一步发展,政府应该为居民提供更多的社会保障.     

2006～2013年CMIP5模式中国降水预估误差分析

用第五次耦合模式比较计划（CMIP5）的10个模式模拟结果与英国东安格利亚大学（UEA）气候研究机构（CRU）的最新降水格点分析资料比较,评估了三种典型浓度路径（RCPs）排放情景下模式集合对2006～2013年中国降水预估误差,结果发现模式间年降水预估在西北和东部沿海地区差异较明显,在沿海地区模式降水估计偏少,在西部和北方大部分地区偏多;冬半年大部分地区模式降水明显偏多,部分地区甚至偏多一倍以上;夏半年东部季风区降水估计偏少,但西部仍然偏多。模式降水误差随时间变化,夏半年误差变化明显的区域主要集中在北方和东部地区,冬半年在东北南部、华东及华南等地。此外,提高排放情景对年降水量估计影响明显的地区主要集中在我国西部的部分地区,加剧了西北模式降水估计偏多程度,但对东部地区影响不大。El Ni?o与La Ni?a年的模式降水误差分布相似,仅在沿海部分地区和华北北部差异较明显,逐年误差分布特征也与此相似。各种误差的对比分析表明,模式降水误差可能多来自模式本身存在的问题,如积云对流参数化、固体降水物理过程、地形处理及分辨率等。这些误差特征说明,直接使用CMIP5模式集合情景输出资料估计未来降水的方法存在较大的不确定性,必须对其进行评估,以降低潜在用户或决策者们制定未来规划的风险。     

Evaluation and hydrological application of precipitation estimates derived from PERSIANN‐CDR,TRMM 3B42V7, and NCEP‐CFSR over humid regions in China

Satellite‐based and reanalysis quantitative precipitation estimates are attractive for hydrologic prediction or forecasting and reliable water resources management, especially for ungauged regions. This study evaluates three widely used global high‐resolution precipitation products [Precipitation Estimation from Remotely Sensed Information using Artificial Neural Networks‐Climate Data Record (PERSIANN‐CDR), Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission 3B42 Version 7 (TRMM 3B42V7), and National Centers for Environment Prediction‐Climate Forecast System Reanalysis (NCEP‐CFSR)] against gauge observations with seven statistical indices over two humid regions in China. Furthermore, the study investigates whether the three precipitation products can be reliably utilized as inputs in Soil and Water Assessment Tool, a semi‐distributed hydrological model, to simulate streamflows. Results show that the precipitation estimates derived from TRMM 3B42V7 outperform the other two products with the smallest errors and bias, and highest correlation at monthly scale, which is followed by PERSIANN‐CDR and NCEP‐CFSR in this rank. However, the superiority of TRMM 3B42V7 in errors, bias, and correlations is not warranted at daily scale. PERSIANN‐CDR and 3B42V7 present encouraging potential for streamflow prediction at daily and monthly scale respectively over the two humid regions, whilst the performance of NCEP‐CFSR for hydrological applications varies from basin to basin. Simulations forced with 3B42V7 are the best among the three precipitation products in capturing daily measured streamflows, whilst PERSIANN‐CDR‐driven simulations underestimate high streamflows and high streamflow simulations driven by NCEP‐CFSR mostly are overestimated significantly. In terms of extreme events analysis, PERSIANN‐CDR often underestimates the extreme precipitation, so do extreme streamflow simulations forced with it. NCEP‐CFSR performs just the reverse, compared with PERSIANN‐CDR. The performance pattern of TRMM 3B42V7 on extremes is not certain, with coexisting underestimation and overestimation. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

中国台湾浅滩海砂砂体的地球物理特征及有利赋存标志*

探测查明海砂分布及其资源量, 对海洋矿产资源规划和社会经济发展有重要意义。利用在中国台湾浅滩采集的单波束测深、侧扫声呐、浅地层剖面、单道地震等多源地球物理数据, 识别出海底沙脊、沙波、埋藏古河道等有利于海砂赋存的地貌标志, 以及厚泥盖层等不利标志, 它们在平面上渐变交错分布。地球物理数据与表层沉积物、钻孔岩心结果对比, 证实浅地层剖面能有效识别表层砂体上部和排除厚泥盖层(厚度>10m), 表层砂体上部呈断续中弱振幅杂乱反射; 单道地震剖面能有效识别砂-泥地层界面, 垂向上刻画表层及埋藏砂体形态, 砂体最主要的特征为连续性差的弱振幅反射中夹杂空白、杂乱的“白雾”反射。砂体响应特征反映了砂体声学较难穿透的特性, 同时也可能是砂体含气所致。分析表明在砂体形态多变或钻孔分布密度低时, 利用地球物理方法, 结合一定数量的钻孔岩心约束, 相比仅依靠大量钻孔岩心, 可更为经济、高效地对砂体的垂向形态和平面展布进行精细刻画, 从而有利于更准确地估算海砂的资源量。     

浅谈如何编好对外援助项目的工程概算

准确的工程概算和资料搜集对.外项目的顺利实施起着非常重要的作用,分析了编制.外工程概算的内容及方法,提出了做好编制工程概算应注意的问题。     

中国旅游业能源消耗与二氧化碳排放量估算(英文)

In 2009, nearly 900 million international tourist arrivals were counted worldwide. A global activity of this scale can be assumed to have a substantial impact on the environment. In this contribution, five major aspects such as the change of LUCC and the use of energy and its associated impacts had been recognized. Recently, the impact of tourism on environment and climate attracts the attention of international organizations and societies in pace with rapid development of tourism industry. Energy consumption and CO2 emissions in tourism sector are becoming a hot spot of international tourism research in recent five years. The use of energy for tourism can be divided according to transport-related purposes (travel to, from and at the destination) and destination-related purposes excluding transports (accommodation, food, tourist activities, etc.). In addition, the transports, accommodation and foods are related to many other industries which are dependent on energy. Thus, the estimations of energy consumption and CO2 emissions in tourism sector have become a worldwide concern. Tourism in China grows rapidly, and the number of domestic tourists was 1902 million in 2009. Energy use and its impact on the environment increase synchronously with China’s tourism. It is necessary to examine the relationship between energy use and CO2 emissions. In this article, a preliminary attempt was applied to estimate the energy consumption and CO2 emissions from China’s tourism sector in 2008. Bottom-up approach, literature research and mathematical statistics technology were also adopted. According to the calculations, Chinese tourism-related may have consumed approximately 428.30 PJ of energy in 2008, or about 0.51% of the total energy consumptions in China. It is estimated that CO2 emissions from tourism sector amounted to 51.34 Mt, accounting for 0.86% of the total in China. The results show that tourism is a low-carbon industry and also a pillar industry coping with global climate change, energy-saving and CO2 emission reduction. Based on this, the authors suggested that tourism should become an important field in low-carbon economic development.