Statistical analysis and long-term prediction of seismicity for linear zones

The model of the Poisson point process is too vague for earthquake locations in space and time: earthquakes tend to cluster in middle distances and to repulse in large ones. The Poisson point model with variable density makes it possible to describe the tendency for clustering but does not reveal the periodicity of clusters. The author proposes the point-process model where locations of points are determined not by densities of point distribution, but by densities of interpoint differences distribution. In the model, a latent periodicity is revealed and used for prediction of a point process. In 1983, the point-process model prediction was made for the Kuril Islands for 1983–1987 and two signs of danger in time and location were determined. Then they were confirmed by strong earth-quakes. In 1989, a similar prediction was made for North Armenia. The Spitak earthquake in 1988 is clearly seen from the data of previous earthquakes.     

Palaeozoic and early Mesozoic fish faunas of the Japanese Islands

Abstract In recent years, many fish teeth and scales have been found from the Palaeozoic and Mesozoic age strata of the Japanese Islands. This study is a compilation of the Japanese fish record from the Palaeozoic and early Mesozoic age deposits. Based on the published and unpublished data, the fossil fishes from the Palaeozoic and Early Mesozoic of Japan can be classified into 27 genera and 33 species, that is, one species of Devonian placoderms, 19 species of Permian to Jurassic elasmobranchs, three species of Permian cochliodonts, seven species of Carboniferous to Permian petalodonts, and three species of Triassic to Jurassic osteichthyans.     

Potentialities,uncertainties and complexities in the response of coral reefs to future sea-level rise

Coral islands formed of largely unconsolidated sands only a few metres above sea level are thought to be particularly vulnerable to sea-level rise consequent upon global warming. However, scenarios which predict catastrophic flooding and loss of island area need reassessment, particularly in the light of the continued downwards revision of projected rates of future sea-level rise. Revised questions concern the interactions between reef growth and sea-level change, biophysical constraints on coral growth, and the importance to reef systems of potential changes in the magnitude, frequency and location of tropical cyclones and hurricanes. It is clear that most reefs have the growth potential to meet even the highest of future sea-level rise scenarios, but too little is known about physiological and physical constraints to reef growth to adequately evaluate the importance of these two factors in constraining this potential at the present time. Future sea-level rise in the tropical oceans, and coral reef responses, will take place against a backdrop of inter-regional differences in Holocene sea levels, resulting from the varying interaction of eustatic and hydro-isostatic processes. These differences have generated varying constraints on the development of modern reefs and varying inherited topographies upon which future sea-level changes will be superimposed. These controls are particularly important in assessing differences in vulnerability to future sea-level rise for reef islands in the Pacific Ocean and the Caribbean Sea.     

Characteristics of horizontal crustal deformation in Japan as deduced from frequency distribution of maximum shear strain rate

In order to study characteristics of horizontal crustal strains, we divide the Japanese Islands into 14 tectonic provinces consistent with the suggestion given byMatsuda (1990). We calculate frequency distribution of strain rates using the results of the Precise Control Survey initiated by the Geographical Survey Institute in 1973. This survey is a revision of old first- and second-order triangulation networks by trilateration. The principal axes and principal strains inside all the geodetic triangles are deduced from the comparison of the old triangulation and the new trilateration networks. The maximum shear strain rates are calculated by dividing the accumulated strains with the time intervals. The frequency distribution of strain rates is counted for each tectonic province and for the entire Japanese Islands. It is proved that the maximum shear strain rate with highest frequency ranges from 0.10–0.15 microstrain/a for 4409 data in the Japanese Islands. The mean value of the strain rates throughout the Japanese Islands is deduced to be 0.18 microstrain/a. We also calculated a mean value of strain rates for each tectonic province. Comparison is made between mean geodetic strain rates in the provinces and Quaternary strain rates estimated by geomorphic data. It is found that 0.3–0.4 microstrain/a of the highest order strain rate is now prevailing in the Izu province, the south Fossa-Magna collision zone, and some special provinces along the eastern part of the Japan Sea coast.     

千岛岛弧大震前哈佛大学矩心矩张量（CMT）解一致性的预测意义s

千岛岛弧地区属于全球地震活动最为活跃的地区之一. 本文利用哈佛大学测定的千岛岛弧地区地震的矩心矩张量（CMT）解， 分析该地区震源机制的一致性特征， 提出利用震源机制和构造应力场的一致性参数a进行地震预测的思路. 研究结果表明，MＷge;7.5地震之前， 都有一致性参数a降低的现象，a的低值起始的时间在发生大震之前的10多天至110多天， a的低值截止的日期距大震在30多天至2天. 相互之间虽然并不完全一致， 但是差别不大. 这种现象的稳定性， 尚需时间的检验， 但是设想在长达数百公里的地区， 连续发生MＷge;5.3的地震的震源机制都与构造应力场一致， 应当不是随机的现象， 而是一种具有预测意义的现象. 当积累的震例足够多时， 则有可能确定统一的评判标准和预测准则.      

ARE ISLANDERS INSULAR? A PERSONAL VIEW*

ABSTRACT. I use my personal experience as an islander doing fieldwork among islanders in the West Indies to explore the meaning of “insularity.” I then expand on that personal experience by drawing on literary sources, particularly Homer's the Odyssey and Herman Melville's Moby Dick, both of which express an island worldview. The island worldview is contrasted and compared with the continental worldview on the basis of differing modes of navigation and cartography and differing modes of orientation as defined by cognitive psychologists.     

Miocene shallow-water limestones from São Nicolau (Cabo Verde): Caribbean-type benthic fauna and time constraints for volcanism

Shallow-water limestones of presumed Late Cretaceous and Eocene age, interbedded with basaltic lavas, were described by earlier authors from São Nicolau in the northwestern part of the Cabo Verde archipelago. If confirmed, these ages would imply late Mesozoic shallow-marine and subaerial volcanic activity in the Cabo Verde archipelago, and document a geological history very different from that known so far from other Cabo Verde Islands, from which no subaerial volcanic activity before the mid-Cenozoic is known. Our re-investigation of the foraminiferal fauna indicates a Late Miocene age for the presumed Late Cretaceous and Eocene limestones. The hypothesis of a long-lived hot spot, active by the Early Cretaceous, and of a major island-building stage in the Cabo Verde Islands during this period, is therefore not supported by the present bio- or chronostratigraphic data.     

Morphologies and emplacement mechanisms of the lava flows of the Faroe Islands Basalt Group,Faroe Islands,NE Atlantic Ocean

The Palaeogene Faroe Islands Basalt Group (FIBG) comprises three eruptive sequences or formations, all emplaced into a subaerial environment during the development of the extensive continental flood basalt province that stretches from East Greenland through the Faroe Islands and into the Faroe-Shetland Basin. The Beinisvørð Formation, having a tabular-classic facies architecture, is composed of a sequence of simple flows each comprising a single sheet lobe. The Beinisvørð Formation is overlain by the distinctly contrasting Malinstindur Formation that has a compound-braided facies architecture. The Enni Formation occurs at the top of the sequence and consists of a mixture of simple and compound flows with tabular-classic and compound-braided facies architectures, respectively. Surface and internal characteristics of the sheet lobes of the Beinisvørð and Enni formations indicate emplacement through inflation, which is more obvious for the tube-fed compound flows of the Malinstindur and Enni formations. The difference between the simple and compound flow sequences of the FIBG is, most likely, linked to the manner in which the lava was supplied during the eruption and the eruptive style of the volcanic system. The sheet lobes were erupted over laterally extensive areas from fissure systems which had a continuous supply of lava, which contrasts with the tube-fed compound flows which were erupted in a gradual, piecemeal manner from point-sourced, low shield volcanoes with limited areal extents.     

New K–Ar ages for calculating end-of-shield extrusion rates at West Maui volcano,Hawaiian island chain

Thirty-seven new K–Ar ages from West Maui volcano, Hawai‘i, are used to define the waning stages of shield growth and a brief episode of postshield volcanism. All but two samples from shield-stage strata have reversed polarity magnetization, so conceivably the exposed shield is not much older than the Olduvai Normal-Polarity subchron, or about 1.8 Ma. The oldest ages obtained are in the range 1.9–2.1 Ma but have large analytical error. Shield volcanism ended about 1.35 Ma, and postshield volcanism followed soon thereafter, persisting until about 1.2 Ma. Exposed shield-stage strata were emplaced at a rate of about 0.001 km³ per year, a rate smaller than historic Hawaiian magmatic rates by a factor of 100. Stratigraphic accumulation rates are similar to those measured previously at Wai‘anae volcano (O‘ahu) or the upper part of the Mauna Kea shield sequence (Hilo drill core, Hawai‘i). These rates diminish sharply during the final 0.3–0.5 m.y. of the shield stage. Hawaiian shield volcanoes begin waning well before their last 0.5 m.y. of life, then end quickly, geologically speaking, if West Maui is representative.     

Pb and Th in settling particles in the western Northwest Pacific Ocean: Particle flux and scavenging

A mooring of three conical time-series sediment traps was deployed at two sites in the western Northwest Pacific Ocean for 9 months. Total mass fluxes and activities of ²¹⁰Pb and ²³⁰Th were determined for the settling particles to elucidate their scavenging and transport processes. Sediment samples also were analyzed for ²¹⁰Pb activities. Total mass fluxes, ²¹⁰Pb fluxes and ²³⁰Th fluxes showed large seasonal variations and their weighted mean fluxes tended to increase with depth, with an especially large increase near-bottom. The ratios of the observed ²¹⁰Pb fluxes to the ²¹⁰Pb deficiency fluxes in the upper traps at the two sites were only 0.02 and 0.12, and were attributable to advective export of ²¹⁰Pb from the surface waters. Those ratios in the near-bottom traps ranged between 1.22 and 2.63. This suggests that these high ratios are due to effective particle scavenging, large lateral ²¹⁰Pb import and input of resuspended particles that have not become incorporated into the sediments. The mean total ²³⁰Th fluxes at the near-bottom traps were 4.2–6.7 times higher than that expected from production in the overlying water column. The ²¹⁰Pb activities in the surficial sediments were much lower than those in the near-bottom traps. The ²¹⁰Pb accumulation rates estimated from the excess ²¹⁰Pb inventory in the sediment column were 40–70% higher than the mean ²¹⁰Pb fluxes at the near-bottom traps. The ratios of the ²¹⁰Pb accumulation rates to the ²¹⁰Pb deficiency fluxes at the near-bottom traps ranged between 2.0 and 3.7. The high fluxes of particulate ²¹⁰Pb and ²³⁰Th at the near-bottom traps reflected a combination of enhanced scavenging of dissolved nuclides and the lateral redistribution of particulate matter by downslope and alongshore transports. However, it was not possible to discriminate among the various processes contributing to high nuclide fluxes.