中国东北地区及不同典型下垫面的气温异常变化分析

利用6个代表站1905-2001年较长时期的月平均气温,对缺测年代的数据进行了插补,建立了东北地区近百年平均季、年气温序列。对所建温度序列与同一区域内26个代表站平均温度序列的近46年同期资料做了相关分析,检验了序列的代表性。在所建序列基础上,分析了东北百年气温的年代、年和季节等不同时间尺度变化特点和地域分布特征,采用谱分析方法探讨了序列的周期性变化特征,并采用Mann-Kendall和Yamamoto方法对经过滑动平均的气温序列进行了突变分析。结果表明,东北近百年年平均温度表现为明显的增暖趋势,但为起伏式增暖;冬季增温非常强烈,夏季在1995年以前不仅没有升温,反而有明显降温趋势,但1995年以后夏季气温明显升高,春秋季的升温趋势与冬季类似,但幅度小得多;在区域内,增温强度似乎并不随纬度增大,纬度较低的沈阳增温最强;三种典型下垫面中以山地的增温幅度最强;功率谱分析表明了百年气温变化的2.3年和4.2年的主周期,其中2.3年周期比较显著。     

基于准三维有限元方法建立的地震活动模型

基于有限元方法,参照细胞自动机模型,建立了一个地震活动演化的动力学模型.在这个模型中,根据边界条件和单元介质参数的分布,利用有限元方法确定各单元的应力增长速率.每个单元设定初始应力和摩擦因数,利用破裂准则可得到单元破裂所需时间.当单元破裂后,将破裂单元作为内部边界,利用有限元方法计算由于这个单元破裂对系统其他单元造成的应力调整.根据上述规则,建立一个由30×40个节点组成,在定常位移速率边界条件作用下的地震活动模型,探讨了区域应力场的动态演化、地震活动图像和各种参数变化对地震活动的影响.结果表明该模型在研究地震活动方面有一定优势并具有实用价值.     

南黄海夏末叶绿素a的分布特征

根据1995年9月利用日本《神鹰丸》号调查船在黄海32°00'–35°00'N,122°00'–127°00'E海区的19个站位上进行的中日联合调查研究中叶绿素a含量的调查资料,探讨南黄海海区夏末初叶绿素a含量的变化、平面分布、断面分布和垂直分布状况,以及与海域环境因子之间的关系。在每个测站上作垂直取样,表层水用圆塑料桶取自海表面,深层水用日本提供的专用采水器采集,取出水样立即量取200ml,用玻璃纤维滤膜过滤浓缩,并加入2％的饱和碳酸镁溶液,防止叶绿素脱镁,然后保存在冰箱内（-1°C）,用冰桶带回实验室进行分析。将载有浮游植物的滤膜放入闪烁瓶内加入10ml 90％的丙酮溶液,在冰箱内提取24h。用萃取荧光法测定叶绿素a含量。结果表明,该海域的叶绿素a含量较高,平均值为1.14mg／m³,其变化范围为0.10–7.76mg／m³,最高值在次表层。（1）平面分布:各层次平面分布特征差异较大。33°00'–33°30'N之间叶绿素a含量均较低,低于0.50mg／m³。33°30'N以北,叶绿素a含量低于0.20mg／m³,而33°00'N以南,除济州岛附近的17–19导站以外,叶绿素a含量均较高,高于100mg／m³。（2）断面分布:水深在30m时,叶绿素a含量的高值区在20m以上水体的次表层中,而水深为50–80m时,其高值分布在20–40m的次表层中。（3）叶绿素a的垂直分布也体现了断面分布的特征。所以作者认为,光是浮游植物生长和繁殖的重要因子之一。     

Head/Tail Breaks: A New Classification Scheme for Data with a Heavy-Tailed Distribution

This article introduces a new classification scheme—head/tail breaks—to find groupings or hierarchy for data with a heavy-tailed distribution. The heavy-tailed distributions are heavily right skewed, with a minority of large values in the head and a majority of small values in the tail, commonly characterized by a power law, a lognormal, or an exponential function. For example, a country's population is often distributed in such a heavy-tailed manner, with a minority of people (e.g., 20 percent) in the countryside and the vast majority (e.g., 80 percent) in urban areas. This new classification scheme partitions all of the data values around the mean into two parts and continues the process iteratively for the values (above the mean) in the head until the head part values are no longer heavy-tailed distributed. Thus, the number of classes and the class intervals are both naturally determined. I therefore claim that the new classification scheme is more natural than the natural breaks in finding the groupings or hierarchy for data with a heavy-tailed distribution. I demonstrate the advantages of the head/tail breaks method over Jenks's natural breaks in capturing the underlying hierarchy of the data.     

Modelling sustainable urban growth in a rapidly urbanising region using a fuzzy-constrained cellular automata approach

This article presents an application of a fuzzy-constrained cellular automata model to simulate the spatio-temporal processes of urban growth in the rapidly growing Gold Coast City in Southeast Queensland, Australia. Urban growth has been captured in the model as a continuous process in space and over time, which has been affected by a set of primary and secondary transition rules. The primary transition rules deal with the propensity of a local area for development and the impact of its neighbouring cells on such development, while the secondary transition rules reflect the influences of environmental and institutional factors on urban growth. Application of the model demonstrates its re-applicability to different regions and the effectiveness of the cellular automata technique in studying urban dynamics. It also provides tools to explore sustainable urban growth options under different socio-environmental and planning control factors. A sustainable urban future of the region is achievable if development is managed to maintain a balance amongst ecological conservation, economic growth and the contemporary Australian lifestyle.     

基于粗规则对象空间信息表的最小规则集生成

提出了粗规则对象空间信息表的概念、相关概念和性质，并给出实现粗规则最小化算法。基于此，编写了相应的计算机程序，并对一个地理信息系统实例规则进行了研究。实例表明运行可靠、结果正确，可应用于智能决策信息系统的知识库优化。     

俄罗斯贝加尔湖-日本仙台断面地震波速结构及其地质意义

本文以中俄、俄日学者合作所得到的地球物理资料为主,结合其它相关地质-地球物理数据,组构了俄罗斯贝加尔湖-日本仙台(BS)4000 km长断面,用于区域性大尺度地研究东北亚洲地壳结构和一系列地质构造问题.研究BS断面地震波速结果表明:(1)西伯利亚板块和黑龙江板块地壳结构变化较大,并可分为上、中、下部地壳,欧亚板块东部陆缘带地壳结构较简单,基本两分.贝加尔裂谷带下部地壳厚度比松辽盆地的薄约7 km,而上部地壳则相反,前者的比后者的厚约9 km.两个裂谷带在Moho界面之下的波速分布差异也较大.(2)结合前人认识,综合分析认为,贝加尔裂谷带属主动式裂谷,松辽盆地属于混合型裂谷.贝加尔裂谷形成动力主要来自地球构造圈B″层物质上涌所形成的地幔热柱的垂向作用,由BLV带佐证,松辽盆地形成动力主要来自太平洋板块斜向俯冲的中远程效应.(3)日本国所位于的西太平洋岛弧带是多地震带,除了太平洋板块俯冲产生的浅部效应、地壳中断裂与流体的直接作用等因素,本文指出仙台等速块的物性条件是岛弧带的主要不稳定因素.同时指出需要关注日本东海岸深约30~40 km的大级次地震的发生.     

Evaluation of three harvest control rules for Bigeye Tuna (Thunnus obesus) fisheries in the Indian Ocean

The stock of Bigeye tuna(Thunnus obesus) in the Indian Ocean supports an important international fishery and is considered to be fully exploited. The responsible management agency, the Indian Ocean Tuna Commission(IOTC), does not have an explicit management decision-making framework in place to prevent over-fishing. In this study, we evaluated three harvest control rules, i) constant fishing mortality(CF), from 0.2 to 0.6, ii) constant catch(CC), from 60000 to 140000 t, and iii) constant escapement(CE), from 0.3 to 0.7. The population dynamics simulated by the operating model was based on the most recent stock assessment using Stock Synthesis version Ⅲ(SS3). Three simulation scenarios(low, medium and high productivity) were designed to cover possible uncertainty in the stock assessment and biological parameters. Performances of three harvest control rules were compared on the basis of three management objectives(over 3, 10 and 25 years): i) the probability of maintaining spawning stock biomass above a level that can sustain maximum sustainable yield(MSY) on average, ii) the probability of achieving average catches between 0.8 MSY and 1.0 MSY, and iii) inter-annual variability in catches. The constant escapement strategy(CE=0.5), constant fishing mortality strategy(F=0.4) and constant catch(CC=80000) were the most rational among the respective management scenarios. It is concluded that the short-term annual catch is suggested at 80000 t, and the potential total allowable catch for a stable yield could be set at 120000 t once the stock had recovered successfully. All the strategies considered in this study to achieve a ‘tolerable' balance between resource conservation and utilization have been based around the management objectives of the IOTC.     

山东春季降水的时空变化特征分析

根据山东省81个地面站1961-1998年共38年的降水资料,应用自然正交函数展开（EOF）方法,分析了山东省38年春季月、季降水量的时空变化特征。根据降水方差累积贡献率和空间分布特征,指出前3个典型场基本能反映山东省春季季降水分布的主要特征,其贡献率高达81．30％,据此得出山东省春季降水分布类型：总体一致型、东南-西北差异型和西南-东北差异型。山东春季降水空间分布可分为4个区,南部区：日照、临沂、枣庄及济宁;半岛区：烟台、威海、青岛和潍坊东部;西部区：荷泽、聊城;北部区：德州、滨州、东营、济南、泰安、莱芜、淄博和潍坊西部。同旱（涝）是山东春季各月降水的基本型。山东春季易出现干旱,春季降水存在明显的年际变化,有4．8～6年的振荡周期。     

Habitat preference and locomotive traits of the Japanese mitten crab Eriocheir japonica within the stream unit of the freshwater river environment

Preferences by the Japanese mitten crab Eriocheir japonica of three mesoscale environments within a river unit (pools, riffles and runs) were investigated in a freshwater river by pot fishing and hand-net collecting during the fall. In addition, E. japonica’s life modes during each growth stage were elucidated by comparing data obtained by hand-net collecting into three size groups (20 mm < CW, 20 mm ≤ CW < 40 mm, and 40 mm ≤ CW). Both the number of crabs caught per pot and per 10 m stretch sampled along the river by hand-net collecting indicated that mean catch values varied in the following manner runs < pools < riffles, and that this variation was large in riffles and small in pools and runs. Only large crabs of 40 mm ≤ CW could be collected by pot fishing; in contrast, small juveniles were only caught by hand-net collecting. Results of the hand-net collecting indicated that small juveniles (CW < 20 mm) preferred to be in riffles, while the mid-size class crabs (20 – 40 mm CW) presence in the riffles decreased and once they became adults (40 mm ≤ CW) they chose to be in pools. In all size classes, runs were not a preferred choice. These results suggest that the small juveniles are oriented by their positive rheotaxis. Their movement is probably affected by flow regimes, creating large variations in their density in the riffles. In contrast, adults can freely move within a stream unit and use pools as their resting site, thus they are steadily captured in large numbers with a small variation in the pools by pot fishing. However, the adults can actively wander around riffles and runs, searching for animal food, and are attracted to the riffles by bait odors depending on the water flow. Therefore, the most effective catching method is to set the pots in riffles when the river is swollen.