0608号超强台风"桑美"的主要特点和风暴潮影响特征分析

0608号超强台风"桑美"正面袭击了温州,给温州造成了严重的人员伤亡和经济损失。本文利用相关气象和海洋资料分析了台风"桑美"的主要特点及其风暴潮影响特征。     

村镇空间结构特征分析

以平原村镇香河县、山地村镇密云县和水乡村镇昆山市为研究区, 分析了村镇空间结构的特征。建立基于网格的村镇选址及空间范围模型, 采用GIS空间分析和建模技术实现; 此外, 空间范围模型根据泰森多边形模型的思想, 提出用土地效益的概念代替距离来确定村镇的空间范围。由于考虑因素更全面, 更具体, 这两个模型可以更好地为村镇的选址与空间范围的确定提供参考。此研究为村镇规划工作提供帮助。     

钱塘江强潮河段江道缩窄治理研究

对钱塘江强潮河段江道缩窄治理进行研究。首先,回顾治理方案的比选,江道全线缩窄时河轴线线路和河道宽度的确定原则,以及不同河段的指数放宽率。然后,介绍了在涌潮汹涌、滩涂淤坍变化剧烈的强潮河段,实施筑堤所采取的工程措施的步序与要点。最后,分析论证了大规模江道缩窄治理后河床、潮汐、洪水位及涌潮高度等特征值的变化。可供进一步深入理论研究和工程施工参考运用。     

Automated threshold selection methods for extreme wave analysis

The study of the extreme values of a variable such as wave height is very important in flood risk assessment and coastal design. Often values above a sufficiently large threshold can be modelled using the Generalized Pareto Distribution, the parameters of which are estimated using maximum likelihood. There are several popular empirical techniques for choosing a suitable threshold, but these require the subjective interpretation of plots by the user.In this paper we present a pragmatic automated, simple and computationally inexpensive threshold selection method based on the distribution of the difference of parameter estimates when the threshold is changed, and apply it to a published rainfall and a new wave height data set. We assess the effect of the uncertainty associated with our threshold selection technique on return level estimation by using the bootstrap procedure. We illustrate the effectiveness of our methodology by a simulation study and compare it with the approach used in the JOINSEA software. In addition, we present an extension that allows the threshold selected to depend on the value of a covariate such as the cosine of wave direction.     

长江口外陆架区埋藏古河道研究

大量高分辨率单道地震和浅地层剖面资料显示长江口外的广大海域分布着大量埋藏古河道,据区域浅层地质特征及地震相特征,可把研究区埋藏古河道断面划分为对称、不对称和复式三种类型;河道内充填的沉积物复杂多样;古河道主要存在于晚更新世晚期沉积层中。60个古河道断面串联成长180km的古长江河系以及长64km的古舟山河和长近100km的古钱塘江河两条支流河道系。长江古河道宽深比较大,盛冰期时深切81~109m,河底纵比降为0.82×10-4,平均古流量约为535.24m3/s,最大断面的古流量为20433.72m3/s。按比降-河宽法判别,当时古长江河道为辫状分汊河型。     

黄河口粉质土沉积物侵蚀性动态变化试验研究

通过一系列室内试验,研究了黄河口粉质类沉积物在循环动荷载作用后侵蚀性的变化.在试验中,采用真空预压固结装置制备重塑土样,采用液压伺服土动三轴试验机实现了不同幅值及不同振次的动荷载作用条件,并通过动三轴静态试验及贯入强度测试,测定了动荷载作用后土样强度的变化.通过水槽冲刷试验测试了不同条件的动荷载作用后,土样抗冲刷能力的变化,并进行了临界剪切应力的计算.试验结果表明:对于黄河口粉质类沉积物,动荷载作用后其强度及抗侵蚀性均降低;沉积物强度指标(不排水剪切强度、残余强度、贯入阻力)、侵蚀性指标(起动流速、临界剪切应力、冲刷率)与动荷载幅值、动荷载振次均呈现出较好的线性相关性.     

Elastic-plastic analysis for pile-anchor supporting system of deep foundation pit

By using numerical analysis methods to simulate the deep excavation, a lot of analyses are established on the basis of two-dimensional plane strain, ignoring the fact that foundation pit possesses three dimensions. For soil constitutive relation, people always take linear and nonlinear model, without considering the plastic behavior of soil. Using plastic-elastic hardening model to simulate constitutive relation of soil characteristics, the authors carried out mechanical analysis for pit excavation and support. The results show that the analysis for the stress state of pile anchor system is an effective way which provides theoretical basis for calculation of soil displacement.     

Summer fast ice evolution off Zhongshan Station,Antarctica

Based on the field data acquired in the program of fast ice observation off Zhongshan Station, Prydz Bay, East Antarctica during the austral summer 2005/ 2006, physical properties evolution of fast ice during the ice ablation season is analyzed in detail. Results show that the annual maximum ice thickness in 2005 occurred in later November, and then ice started to reek, and the ablation duration was 62 days; sea water under the ice became warmer synchronously; corresponding to the warming sea ice temperature, a ＂relative cold mid-layer＂ appeared in sea ice; the fast ice marginal line recoiled back to the shore observably, and the recoil distance was 20.9 km from 18 December 2005 through 14 January 2006. In addition, based on the data of sea ice thickness survey along the investigation course of MV Xuelong on December 18 of 2005, the ice thickness distribution paten in the marginal ice zone have been described ： sea ice thickness increased, but the diversity of floe ice thick-ness decreased from open water to fast ice zone distinctly.     

�봨����ǰ����������ѻ��������

??????????32??????λ?????????????????20??????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????20????80??????????????????????????????????????????????2006???????????????2?????????????????????????Ρ??????????????????????????????????????????á?     

基于S波段双偏振雷达一次强雹暴过程观测分析

利用宁波S波段双偏振天气雷达资料、NCEP再分析资料、结合常规观测资料和实地冰雹调查资料,对2020年3月21日浙江省中北部一次强雹暴灾害过程(简称“03·21”过程)的天气背景和双偏振雷达回波演变特征进行分析。结果表明：(1)此次雹暴过程环流形势属于低层暖平流强迫类型,雹暴影响过程约4 h,雹暴A和B先以强的对流单体形态移动,在自西向东移动过程中分别加强为超级单体。(2)典型降雹时次具有明显的三体散射特征(TBSS),垂直剖面图上强回波(>50 dBz)伸展高度超过-20℃层,低层的弱回波,中高层悬垂回波明显。径向速度垂直剖面图上,雹暴低层辐合,其上叠加了辐散层,使得雹块得以继续形成和增长。(3)冰雹区出现了Z_DR冰雹信号,对应的反射率因子(Z_H)均大于65 dBz,差分反射率因子(Z_DR)介于-2.0～0 dB,相关系数(C_C)介于0.80～0.98;当结合Z_H、Z_DR、C_C综合判断云中有冰雹粒子,C_C...