Field investigations and monitoring as tools for modelling the Rossena castle landslide (Northern Appennines, Italy)

In the evening of February 28, 2004, a landslide took place in the village of Rossena (Northern Apennines, Italy), built at the base of a crag shaped in a basalt mass and wrapped in highly deformed formation of clay and shale with blocks. The failure damaged some houses, roads and fields but, fortunately, the medieval Rossena Castle, lying on the crag, was not involved at all. The goal of the study was to attain a technical and geological model of the slope to generate a landslide risk zonation, for regularity and development planning, so that the most correct action plans could be proposed. A detailed geological and geomorphological survey allowed for distinguishing the different gravitative landform of this area. It was very helpful to plan direct and indirect investigation, including borehole drillings, samplings, seismic (tomography), and electrical surveys. A monitoring system was built up immediately after the event (three wire extensometers and one inclinometer), then progressively substituted by a more complete one (two tiltmeters, two jointmeters, four inclinometers, two incremental extensometers, and two piezometers). The phenomenon can be divided in different parts. The central sector of the slope is interested by compound slides likely affecting the bedrock and can be considered, at present, the ‘engine’ of the whole instability framework. Indeed, as a consequence, in the upper portion of the slope the huge blocks in which the outer part of the crag is disjointed experienced vertical displacements and, locally, topplings. Finally, the lowest sector is affected by slow movements, probably connected to bedrock creep or rock flow, while the toe, really at the foot of the slope, by shallow landslides. This instability framework is the result of a complex evolution, starting almost more than 9,000 years ago, as testified from a radiocarbon dating. In more recent time (19th century), the Rossena landslide was also triggered by an earthquake that induced the partially breaking up of the crag, causing rock falls and cracks in the ground.     

基于元胞模型的河道纵剖面调整动态模拟

纵剖面的调整是河道演化的重要内容,其对于河道整治及水沙灾害机理研究都具有重要意义。利用多年观测资料可以较为精确地分析和推断河道纵剖面的调整过程。但是,这种方法不能从过程机理上对纵剖面的调整进行模拟分析。而自然条件下河道边界条件的复杂性使得对河道纵剖面演化的物理过程模拟有很大困难。元胞自动机是一个时间、空间和状态都离散的动力模型,是研究复杂系统动态演化过程的有力工具。本文以黄河尾闾河道为例,利用一维元胞模型对河道纵剖面的调整进行动态模拟。模拟揭示了河道纵剖面在初始形态、不同水沙组合以及河道延伸等情况下的演化规律与趋势。     

A simple and direct method to analyse the influences of sampling fractions on modelling intra-city human mobility

Sampling fraction is crucial to sampling-related studies and applications, especially in the big data era when most data are neither originally designed nor controllable in the data collection process. A common concern among researchers is ‘what’s the modelling accuracy when using a sample?’. Taking intra-city human mobility as the study objective, this study utilizes a simple and direct method to analyse the influences of various sampling fractions on modelling accuracy. Five common intra-city human mobility indicators (travel distance, travel time, travel frequency, radius of gyration and movement entropy) are evaluated considering mean value, median and probability distribution. Experimental results demonstrate that the representativeness of each considered indicator converges to 1 in its own unique rate and variances. The minimum required sampling fractions to satisfy specific accuracies differ for various indicators and evaluation measures. To further investigate how related factors influence the modelling accuracy of sampling fractions, additional experiments are conducted considering multiple sampling methods, study scopes, and data sources. Several interesting general findings are observed. This study provides a reference for other sampling-based applications.     

Vehicle trajectory modelling with consideration of distant neighbouring dependencies for destination prediction

Vehicle trajectory modelling is an essential foundation for urban intelligent services. In this paper, a novel method, Distant Neighbouring Dependencies (DND) model, has been proposed to transform vehicle trajectories into fixed-length vectors which are then applied to predict the final destination. This paper defines the problem of neighbouring and distant dependencies for the first time, and then puts forward a way to learn and memorize these two kinds of dependencies. Next, a destination prediction model is given based on the DND model. Finally, the proposed method is tested on real taxi trajectory datasets. Results show that our method can capture neighbouring and distant dependencies, and achieves a mean error of 1.08 km, which outperforms other existing models in destination prediction significantly.     

Hydrogeochemistry of shallow groundwater in an upland Scottish catchment

The hydrogeochemistry of shallow groundwater has been characterized in the Allt a'Mharcaidh catchment in the Scottish Cairngorms in order to: (i) assess the spatial and temporal variation in groundwater chemistry; (ii) identify the hydrogeochemical processes regulating its evolution; and (iii) examine the influence of groundwater on the quality and quantity of stream flow. Shallow groundwater in superficial drift deposits is circumneutral (pH∽7·1) and base cation concentrations are enriched compared with precipitation and drainage water from overlying podzolic soils. Modelling with NETPATH suggests that the dominant geochemical processes that account for this are the dissolution of plagioclase, K-feldspar and biotite. Groundwater emerging as springs from weathered granite underlying high altitude (>900 m) alpine soils shows similar characteristics, though weathering rates are lower, probably as a result of reduced residence times and lower temperatures. Chemical hydrograph separation techniques using acid neutralizing capacity (ANC) and Si as tracers show that groundwater is the dominant source of baseflow in the catchment and also buffers the chemistry of stream water at high flows: groundwater may account for as much as 50–60% of annual runoff in the catchment. Climate and land use in the Cairngorms are vulnerable to future changes, which may have major implications for hydrogeological processes in the area. © 1998 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.