Evolution of vegetation and climate since the last glacial maximum recorded at Dahu peat site, South China

Sporopollen analysis on a 346 cm peat record at Dahu, Jiangxi, chronologically constrained by 16 AMS 14C datings, provides an opportunity to reconstruct the vegetation evolution stages responding to cli-mate change in South China since the last glacial maximum. The result shows that during 18330-15630 cal a B.P., broad-leaved forest dominated the area, corresponding to mild, cool and fairly humid climate. At the interval of 15630-11600 cal a B.P., several evergreen broad-leaved species appeared within the broad-leaved forest, indicating moderate and humid condition. During early Holocene, broad-leaved evergreen forest community was constructed as Castanopsis/Lithorcarpus principally developed, suggesting a warm and humid scenario until 6000 cal a B. P. Since 6000 cal a B. P., abrupt forest deterioration happened with an contemporary increase of fern and herb communities, repre-senting a turnover to relatively cool and dry condition and as well, possible impact from human activi-ties. Meanwhile, several relatively cool and dry events can be identified in the sporopollen record, they can be correlated to the North Atlantic Heinrich event, YD and Holocene millennial-scale oscillations, implying that the low latitude climate was coupled with high latitude influences. Moreover, the varia-tions of temperature and humidity since LGM at Dahu were much smaller when compared with the re-cords in north monsoonal China.     

Analysis and interpretation of the October 21, 1766 earthquake in the Southeastern Caribbean

The October 21, 1766 earthquake is the most widely felt event in the seismic history of Trinidad and Venezuela. Previous works diverged on the interpretation of the historical data available for this event. They associated the earthquake either with the Lesser Antilles subduction zone, with strike-slip motion along El Pilar fault, or with intraplate deformation at the edge of Guyana shield. Isoseismal areas are proposed after a new search and analysis of primary and secondary sources of historical information. Two of the largest earthquakes of the twentieth century which occurred in the region, the 1968 (M _S 6.4, h = 103 km), and the 1997 (M _W 6.9, h = 25 km) events, for which both intensity data and instrumentally determined source parameters are available, are used to calibrate the isoseismal areas and to interpret them in terms of source depth and magnitude. It is concluded that the large extent of intensity values higher than V is diagnostic of the depth (85 ± 20 km) of the 1766 source, and of local amplifications of ground motion due to soft soil conditions and to strong contrasts of impedance at the edge of Guyana shield. It is proposed that the event occurred either in slab, or close to the bottom lithospheric interface between the Caribbean and South American plates (∼11°N; ∼62.5°W). The value of the magnitude is estimated at 6.5 < M _S < 7.5 depending on the source depth and on the decay of ground motion as a function of distance. Deep and intermediate depth earthquakes can induce important casualties in Trinidad, Venezuela, and Guyana, possibly more damaging than those induced by shallower earthquakes along the strike of El Pilar Fault.     

地震预报实验场:科学问题与科学目标

本文简要回顾了以往地震预报实验场的经验教训,讨论了新一代地震预报实验场的实施策略。汲取汶川地震的经验启示,本文提出"地震博弈"策略,即考虑中长期地震预测的可用性与不确定性,在监测与实验系统设计中考虑地震活动和地震构造相依的区域模型。对于特定的活动断裂或活动地块边界带的潜在强震段落,设置适应多种孕震模型的"想定地震破裂",针对地震孕育的"想定模式"设计观测项目和监测系统。这一系统以地震成因和孕震模型的有效约束、"预期"前兆的有效监测、预测/预报效能的有效检验为导向。从技术角度,本文提出将地震预报实验场作为一个"大科学工程",强调复杂的多层次、多组分技术系统性能的稳健性,以及为确保与地震有效的"近距离接触"的系统可持续性。     

高强度地震下建筑施工场点危险性建模分析

在高强度地震环境下,建筑施工场点易发生危险,传统方法运用AHP算法对建筑施工场点的危险性进行分析,但未考虑抗震约束,存在分析效果差的弊端。因此,提出一种高强度地震下建筑施工场点危险性建模分析方法。首先采用TOPSIS方法得到地震风险评估指标,构建风险评估指标的物元分析模型,基于AHP-熵权法的组合赋权获取地震风险评估指标的综合权重。然后通过贝叶斯网络来推导高强度地震下建筑施工场点危险性参数,运用地震等级的划分标准和推算方法,依据建筑施工场点危险性评估准则和接受原则APLARP,利用物元分析模型中不同危险节点的致因关系和综合权重构建施工场点风险评估模型,完成对高强度地震下建筑施工场点危险性的建模分析。实验结果表明,所设计模型可准确分析高强度地震下建筑施工场点的危险性,能够确保整体施工的安全性,具有重要的应用价值。     

温州深软场地剪切波速实测误差及其对PGA影响研究

该研究在温州两个深软土层场地上完成了剪切波速测试误差专项实验,统计拟合了误差分布规律并研究了其对PGA的影响,得到结论:每米深度上的实测误差基本符合标准正态分布,温州地区深软场地的测试误差与我国其他几个地区覆盖土层较浅场地上的每米实测误差程度基本相同;两个场地上各深度的误差标准差大致相同,约为16%;实测误差对PGA影响明显,误差取1倍标准差时PGA的变化程度可能达到30%,取2倍标准差时可能高达45%;PGA的变化程度受输入地震动的频率特性制约,长周期频率成分对深软场地计算结果的影响明显。     

基于ARIO模型的震后重建施工现场安全管理方法

为提高受灾地区重建安全性,提出基于ARIO模型的震后重建施工现场安全管理方法。在将建筑设计影响因素划分为直接因素与间接因素的基础上,将ARIO模型引入震后重建施工现场安全管理中,利用其分析施工过程中各产业技术与该地区经济的联系,在考虑经济因素的基础上实现震后施工现场安全管理。设计并构建施工初期数据采集系统、施工前安全管理系统、施工过程中安全管理系统,将ARIO与VR结合,使各系统运行时施工人员能够在虚拟漫游中以第一视角完成虚拟施工,掌握整个工期、流程、所用设备等有关信息,并由辅助专家作出相应指导,实现震后重建施工现场安全系统化管理。提出施工安全辅助建议,以完善灾后重建安全管理方法。实验结果表明,该方法运行后安全系数大于当前方法,其科学性和鲁棒性较强。     

大连地磁台环境保护与迁台选址

阐述了大连地磁台环境保护历程、台站搬迁的意义、补偿征地过程及经验,同时介绍了大连地磁台新台址的堪选过程。     

On the use of microtremor recordings in seismic microzonation

Experimental methods involving microtremor recordings are useful for determining site effects in regions of moderate seismic activity where ground motion records are few, and in urban or industrial contexts where the noise level is high. The aim of this study is to establish a microzonation by using the Nogoshi–Nakamura method,[1, 2] a simple experimental technique based on microtremor recordings. Since the physical phenomena underlying the method are only partially understood, the spectral responses obtained cannot be used alone. We, therefore, complete our experimental results by comparing them with the solutions of a one-dimensional numerical simulation (SHAKE91).[3, 4] The experimental programme was carried out on a plain near the Rhone Delta (South of France). H/V spectral ratios were calculated at 137 noise measurement points. In addition, we were able to compute the numerical transfer functions from soil columns defined by geotechnical characteristics inside the studied region. A comparison of the results obtained by the experimental and numerical methods showed that the fundamental frequencies are in good agreement, but that the amplitudes obtained by the two techniques are sometimes different. The analysis of H/V spectral ratios enabled us to establish maps to characterize the region: a resonance frequency map and maps of amplification levels as a function of frequency range, leading to a seismic microzonation for the whole of the region.     

Amplification of SH waves by an orthotropic basin

Scattering of elastic waves by an orthotropic sedimentary basin is investigated for antiplane strain model using an indirect boundary integral equation approach. Both steady state and transient response were obtained for semicircular and semielliptical basins with different material properties. The results indicate that the basin geometry and the impedance contrast between the half-space and the basin have similar effects on the surface ground motion amplification as for the isotropic case. However, the material anisotropy may change significantly the fundamental resonant frequencies of the basin, resulting in different surface displacement amplification patterns. In addition, it was observed that the arrival time of the main disturbance on the surface strongly depends on material anisotropy for different angles of incidence. The results demonstrate that material anisotropy may be very important in explaining surface ground motion amplification for sedimentary basins. © 1998 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Damage distribution during the 1994 Northridge, California, earthquake relative to generalized categories of surficial geology

The spatial distributions of severely damaged buildings (red-tagged) and of breaks in the water distribution system following the 1994 Northridge, California, earthquake (M_L = 6·4) are investigated relative to the local characteristics of surficial geology. The pipe breaks are used as an indicator of nonlinear soil response, and the red-tagged buildings as indicator of severe shaking. The surficial geology is described by several generalized categories based on age, textural character and thickness of the near surface layer. Two regions are studied: the San Fernando Valley and Los Angeles-Santa Monica. The analysis shows that there is no simple correlation between damage patterns and surficial geology. Single family wood-frame buildings were damaged less when built on fine silt and clay (0–3 m thick) from the late Holocene.