Effective typhoon characteristics and their effects on hourly reservoir inflow forecasting

This paper describes the identification of effective typhoon characteristics and the development of a new type of hourly reservoir inflow forecasting model with the effective typhoon characteristics. Firstly, a comparison of support vector machines (SVMs), which is a novel kind of neural networks (NNs), and back-propagation networks (BPNs) is made to select an appropriate NN-based model. The results show that SVM-based models are more appropriate than BPN-based models because of their higher accuracy and much higher efficiency. In addition, effective typhoon characteristics for improving forecasting performance are identified from all the collected typhoon information. Then the effective typhoon characteristics (the position of the typhoon and the distance between the typhoon center and the reservoir) are added to the proposed SVM-based models. Next, a performance comparison of models with and without effective typhoon characteristics is conducted to clearly highlight the effects of effective typhoon characteristics on hourly reservoir inflow forecasting. To reach a just conclusion, the performance is evaluated by cross validation, and the improvement in performance due to the addition of effective typhoon characteristics is tested by paired comparison t-tests at the 5% significance level. The results confirm that effective typhoon characteristics do improve the forecasting performance and the improvement increases with increasing lead-time, especially when the rainfall data are not available. For four- to six-hour ahead forecasts, the improvement due to the addition of effective typhoon characteristics increases from 3% to 18% and from 10% to 113% for Categories I (rainfall data are available) and II (rainfall data are not available), respectively. In conclusion, effective typhoon characteristics are recommended as key inputs for reservoir inflow forecasting during typhoons. The proposed SVM-based models with effective typhoon characteristics are expected to provide more accurate forecasts than BPN-based models. The proposed modeling technique is also expected to be useful to support reservoir operation systems and other disaster warning systems.     

基于应急基础数据库的城市防震减灾能力评价指标研究

城市防震减灾能力是一个涉及因素众多的复杂体系,对它的评估也是涉及到地震科学、社会科学和经济科学的交叉学科问题。对城市承受地震灾害能力进行科学合理的评估并有针对性的加强其薄弱环节是减轻城市地震灾害的有效方法之一。在已有的防震减灾能力评价体系研究的基础上,利用现有的地震应急基础数据库数据项,提出一个简化的城市防震减灾能力指标体系,快速评估城市的防震减灾能力。     

西北小城镇的震害特点及防灾减灾

西北小城镇面临的地震高风险已成为人们关注的焦点。由于自然环境差、社会经济和城镇基础设施薄弱、民众文化素质低,加大了小城镇抢险救援的难度。另一方面,人口密度低、自救互救能力较强、震后引发的社会问题不突出,又成为有利的一面。了解西北小城镇的震害特点,有针对性地建立起防灾减灾对策,做好平时准备、震前防御、震时救援、震后重建的立体战略思想、战术和方法,就能很好地提高西北小城镇的综合防灾能力。     

Ethnic and Racial Differences in Tornado Hazard Perception,Preparedness, and Shelter Lead Time in Tuscaloosa

The 27 April 2011 EF4 Tuscaloosa tornado directly impacted more than 50,000 residents, causing forty-five fatalities within the city and sixty-five in total. It was a rare urban tornado with varying impacts on the three major ethnic and racial groups within the city. A hybrid survey and interview of open-ended and closed questions was conducted with 211 Tuscaloosa area residents in a two-week period after the tornado. Results indicate significant differences in risk perception, preparedness, and shelter lead time among the three ethnic and racial groups. Furthermore, results were still significant for perception after controlling for the effects of age, education, and experience.     

Temporal vulnerability in hazardscapes: Flood memory-networks and referentiality along the North Carolina Neuse River (USA)

Social models of population vulnerability to disasters increasingly include the notion that vulnerability has a strong temporal component. While this temporality is typically conceptualized as objective (making vulnerability “dynamic,” “multiscalar,” and/or “historical”), it consistently fails to acknowledge that among stakeholders managing hazardscapes temporality is also a social process in which subjective experience of time may play a role in creating situations of population vulnerability. This paper proposes that the temporal situatedness of a population relative to past hazard events and the quality with which stakeholders engage hazard memory-chains combine to significantly influences its vulnerability to natural hazards. It is proposed that this temporal vulnerability is characterized by shared, population level potential for surprise and can be evaluated by exploration of time-series depth and temporal reference points in historical ecological narratives and documents. Based on ethnohistoric research conducted from 2002 to 2006 in flood-prone eastern North Carolina (USA), it is illustrated how temporal vulnerability was relatively higher in the Neuse River watershed located at the City of Kinston than surrounding watersheds. Due to the combination of factors including the damming of the Neuse River in the 1980s, outdated official floodplain maps, relatively unmonitored floodplain development, the stochastic timing of flood events (placing the last major flood more than a generation away), technological optimism, and turnover of floodplain officials and residents, local stakeholders were seriously misinformed about the space-time risks involved both before and after the disaster of Hurricane Floyd (1999) happened. To deal with this inconsistency, the temporal rarity of Hurricane Floyd as a “500-year event” has been motivated and embraced by many in an effort to continue life-as-is. The paper proposes that the concept of temporal vulnerability is further explored and used as key dimension in the vulnerability sciences.     

日本海域9.0级地震的深刻启示与防灾减灾对策

从日本成功的防震减灾经验中受到启示,通过详细分析日本的救灾体系、防灾减灾教育、抗震标准、灾区人口密度和应对福岛核电站问题的相关措施,提出目前我国在这些方面存在的主要问题及应对策略。     

基于SMS/GPS/GIS地震灾情获取处理技术研究与实现

本文研究了基于Windows Mobile的SMS与GPS的嵌入式集成开发技术,以智能移动终端作为地震现场灾情获取与传输的手段;同时还研究了SMS与GIS的无缝集成技术,实现灾情信息的可视化分析,借助GIS空间分析技术进行地震现场灾情空间分布研究.本文建立了基于SMS、GPS和GIS相结合的地震灾情获取处理模式,并基于GSM移动网关和信息机实现了该方法.该方法的模式可以应用于多种远程信息获取领域.     

2022年春季冰雹灾害对贵州西部红心猕猴桃的影响分析

2022年4月下旬至5月上旬,贵州西部共发生了6次冰雹天气过程,有4次冰雹灾害天气严重影响贵州西部红心猕猴桃生产,其主要是发生在4月22日、5月6日、5月8日、5月9日的冰雹天气过程。为了探明2022年4月下旬至5月上旬4次冰雹天气过程对红心猕猴桃果实的影响,通过6次冰雹天气过程影响区的调查,获取冰雹特征数据和红心猕猴桃在4次冰雹灾害过程中的受灾情况,分析诱发冰雹天气发生的大气环流特征,并采用相关统计方法对4次冰雹灾害对红心猕猴桃造成的损失进行评估。结果表明：6次冰雹天气过程中,冰雹最大直径达20mm,但最大直径大多在10mm以下,其中水城区的冰雹最大直径较其他地区大,遭遇冰雹天气次数也最多。影响红心猕猴桃生产的4次冰雹天气过程的天气背景具有贵阳站的CAPE均远远大于威宁站、中低层相对湿度均在90%以上、中高层相对湿度均在80%左右的共同特点。4月22日、5月6日和5月9日冰雹天气发生前,500hPa均有浅槽、700hPa均有低涡切变线入侵贵州西部;5月8日冰雹天气发生前,500hPa和700hPa贵州西部均处于西太副高外围。4次冰雹灾害造成红心猕猴桃885.4hm²绝收,占其基地种植面积的9.04%;因冰雹灾害造成产量损失约1.33万t,直接经济损失19921.5万元。     

四川夹金山王家山沟泥石流灾害特征及防治

王家山沟位于四川省阿坝藏族羌族自治州小金县达维乡境内,流域面积8.02km2,沟长5.14km,相对高度1614m,纵坡降314.0‰,沟内滑坡发育,形成泥石流的地形和松散固体物质条件充分;偶尔出现的高强度、短历时暴雨是泥石流形成的水源条件和激发因素。针对危害特征,对泥石流采取了以拦挡工程为主,辅以防护堤及生物措施的综合治理方案。     

Seismic Damage Characteristics of the Wenchuan Great Earthquake on May 12,2008 and Suggestions for Disaster Prevention

The paper introduces the tectonic background,focal mechanism and distribution of aftershock of the Wenchuan earthquake on May 12,2008. The earthquake is considered to be the result of long-term interaction between the eastward movement of the Bayan Har Block and the Sichuan Basin. Most of the earthquake energy was released in an area (the seismic source body) 330km long,52km wide and 20km deep over 100s. Energy release in the source body was extremely uneven,and strong ground motion in the epicenter area shows obvious asymmetrical character in the time and space scale. The high-intensity area is distributed along the source body,and the intensity distribution bears an obvious anomalous characteristic. The investigation results indicate that more than 90 percent of casualties caused by this earthquake were in the areas of intensity IX or above. Houses,schools and hospitals etc. suffered serious damage. Lifelines such as transportation,water conservation etc. also suffered significant damage. Besides,earthquake-triggered avalanches,landslides,mud-rock flows and so on were extremely serious. The tremendous earthquake disaster highlighted the deficiencies in disaster prevention and mitigation management,scientific earthquake research,technology and application of earthquake disaster prevention,and publicity of earthquake preparedness and disaster reduction.