浙江台风(热带风暴)灾害的若干特点

对1949-1992年的气象、水文和灾害资料分析,浙江台风灾害具有以下几个特点:1.登陆或严重影响浙江的台风日期与天文大潮期相遇机率高,沿海地区潮灾严重;2.台风大风是浙江沿海城市台风灾害危害的主因之一,且其危害具有连锁反应倾向;3.台风灾害对浙江农业的危害一般是直接和继发性灾害叠加而成的;4.台风灾害区的地理分布具有明显的山脉走向性;5.台风重灾年在年际分布上具有阶段性.     

基于应急基础数据库的城市防震减灾能力评价指标研究

城市防震减灾能力是一个涉及因素众多的复杂体系,对它的评估也是涉及到地震科学、社会科学和经济科学的交叉学科问题。对城市承受地震灾害能力进行科学合理的评估并有针对性的加强其薄弱环节是减轻城市地震灾害的有效方法之一。在已有的防震减灾能力评价体系研究的基础上,利用现有的地震应急基础数据库数据项,提出一个简化的城市防震减灾能力指标体系,快速评估城市的防震减灾能力。     

多源异构地震数据的一体化编码和接口技术的设计与实现

以多源异构地震灾情数据为研究对象,针对震后灾情获取缓慢且碎片化、公众涉灾信息数据异构、多维、数据格式差异大、部分数据维度缺失导致的数据无法得到综合利用、决策支持不到位等问题,基于相关灾害信息标准化管理,提出多源异构地震数据的一体化编码和接口技术规范。根据此规范,设计实现了灾情数据的一体化编码管理以及基于开放式接口规范的灾情数据接入,从而实现了灾情数据入库、管理、实时发布的全周期一体化管理。同时,给出了多源异构应急信息大数据资源的统一表达模型,为震后应急管理提供了技术保障,提升了灾情数据管理效率。     

浅谈如何创新四川省防震减灾宣传工作

文章简要介绍了新形势下四川省防震减灾宣传工作在宣传手段、宣传形式、宣传内容等方面的特点,并通过采取切实有效的措施,使得防震减灾宣传工作初见成效,为今后提高社会公众的防震减灾意识,做好震时科学的救护工作起到积极的作用。     

四川旱涝震灾害的人工神经网络外推预测

选取旱、涝、震灾害之间的一步转移概率作为Ｂ－Ｐ人工神经网络训练样本的输入信息，建立了四川旱、涝、震的人工神经网络灾型预测模型。Ｂ－Ｐ网络模型应用于实例预测结果与用主分量分析法的趋势预测结果精度接近。     

Process of Housing Damage Assessment: The 1995 Hanshin-Awaji Earthquake Disaster Case

Rebuilding of victims' livelihoods was a crucial issue in the restoration process in the1995 Hanshin-Awaji Earthquake Disaster. Housing damage assessment influencedmost of the rebuilding of the livelihood in the long term, because the Victim Certificatesissued by the local governments based on the results of the Housing damage assessmentwas required to receive most of the individual assistance measures. In the process ofHousing damage assessment, many complex problems arose, leading to extensivework on the part of the disaster responders. Consequently, a considerable number ofvictims were dissatisfied with the assessment and applied for a resurvey. Due to a floodof requests for resurvey, disaster responders had to work on damage assessment, leavingrelief activities aside.In order to facilitate Housing damage assessment, this paper discusses thefollowing five points: (1) the processes and the problems of assessments performedin the Hanshin-Awaji Earthquake Disaster, (2) the changes in the nature of informationneeded by the victims, (3) the improvements over the present damage assessment, (4)the housing situation in Japan, and (5) the international situation on damage assessment.It is obvious from the results that a poor damage assessment system and the size ofthe disaster produced a very large work load. Differences in appreciation among theinvestigators also contributed to unfair assessments and led to the victims beingincreasingly dissatisfied by the survey results. Finally, a design concept for acomprehensive damage assessment system, which has been derived from theabove five points, is proposed for post-disaster management.     

新疆巴楚-伽师6.8级地震极灾区砖结构房屋震害特点及分析

重点介绍了新疆巴楚—伽师6.8级地震极灾区琼库尔恰克乡政府所在地砖结构房屋的破坏情况。选择有代表性的建筑物,根据现场测绘、调查的资料,从建筑、结构及施工等方面参照相关国家标准分析震害原因,总结抗震经验,提出满足抗震设计一般规定和采取简单构造措施,即能保障砖结构房屋的抗震性能。     

Wave of peace? Tsunami disaster diplomacy in Aceh, Indonesia

This paper uses the disaster diplomacy framework to address the impact of the 26 December 2004 tsunami disaster on the decades-long conflict between the Free Aceh Movement (GAM) and the Government of Indonesia. This framework enables the identification of a micro-factors of great importance in securing momentum for the peace talks. These factors include informal networks being created, plus disaster relief and diplomacy occurring at multiple levels through multi-way processes and the position of GAM dedicated to reconstruction activities. This paper further shows that, in the case of Aceh, the disaster had a deep influence on the peace talks between GAM and the Indonesian government and on the eventual implementation of the peace agreement reached. However, the tsunami disaster should not be considered the sole vector of peace in Aceh, but as a powerful catalyst in diplomatic talks, since negotiation between both sides were ongoing before the disaster and were favoured by recent changes in the political environment. Twenty-eight months after the tsunami catastrophe, it is actually non-disaster and internal political factors which are likely to have a more significant impact on the long-term resolution of the Aceh conflict. One important outcome is that it appears that the slow, unequal and often poor reconstruction process is not hindering, or even threatening, the peace process because tsunami disaster related factors are less important for peace than non-tsunami disaster related factors, findings in line with previous disaster diplomacy case studies.     

石渠5．1级地震与德格5．0级地震灾害对比

本文根据现场调查资料描述了四川省相邻的两县石渠县和德格县分别发生的Ｍｓ５．１和５．０级地震的灾害情况，并对这两次地震的灾害特征和灾害环境等作了对比。虽然这两次地震的震级相近，宏观震中仅相距约１３０ｋｍ（直线距离），但地震所造成的经济损失和社会影响却相差较大。导致这种灾害明显差异的原因主要是先前的冻胀灾害和自然地理环境以及建筑物场地条件的不同。     

历史时期(1803～1958年)西藏水灾分析

分析了现有灾异史料所覆盖时段（1803－1958年）西藏水灾的时空变化特征。研究指出：①1803－1958年，西藏水灾发生（县）次数波动比较大；19世纪40－80年代为西藏的水灾多发期；1924、1954年为严重水灾发生年；②西藏水灾空间分布差异显著，主要分布在“一江两河”地区。其中，日喀则、山南地区的水灾（县）次最多，其次为拉萨市、林芝地区，昌都、阿里、那曲地区则水灾发生相对较少；③高强度的持续降水为西藏水灾发生的关键诱导因子，河流暴涨、漫溢、改道为重要媒体，山崩、雪崩、山洪及泥石流等要素为特定地貌条件下的主要致灾因子，雹灾、地水上涌等也是不容忽视的致灾因子；④19世纪40－80年代西藏气候湿润。