四川九寨沟7.0级地震后社交媒体多层次信息沟通功能分析

本文以“社交媒体多层次信息流”为概念框架,分析了四川九寨沟7.0级地震发生后,个人、当地的组织、宏观层面的主流媒体使用社交媒体所发挥的作用。通过对微博的数据进行挖掘分析,总结出地震灾害发生后社交媒体所具有的5项功能:人际之间的交流,地方政府、本土组织以及当地媒体的传播渠道,大众传媒信息发布的渠道,信息的收集和分享,微观、中观以及宏观各主体间沟通的渠道。在强震发生后社交媒体有巨大的传播潜力,本文的研究成果对未来大震发生后如何利用社交媒体来应对灾害有一定的借鉴意义。     

基于12322平台的江苏省地震应急灾情速报系统的设计与应用

通过分析地震应急救援工作中对灾情信息的需求,提出了“地震应急灾情”的概念,设计了基于12322平台的江苏省地震应急灾情速报系统。本文详细介绍了该系统的设计框架、基本功能和应用效果。系统主要包括短信和微信两大模块,短信模块主要面向非地震系统人员,通过手机短信形式向社会灾情速报员发送灾情邀请短信,灾情速报员只需简单回复灾情代码“1”—“4”即可。微信模块主要面向地震系统工作人员,通过微信企业号“苏震12322”自动推送地震信息并完成灾情收集工作。经过近1年的试运行,系统能够在震后迅速完成灾情信息的收发与数据处理工作,并以“天地图”为地理底图实时直观地展示已上报的灾情信息。     

Effective typhoon characteristics and their effects on hourly reservoir inflow forecasting

This paper describes the identification of effective typhoon characteristics and the development of a new type of hourly reservoir inflow forecasting model with the effective typhoon characteristics. Firstly, a comparison of support vector machines (SVMs), which is a novel kind of neural networks (NNs), and back-propagation networks (BPNs) is made to select an appropriate NN-based model. The results show that SVM-based models are more appropriate than BPN-based models because of their higher accuracy and much higher efficiency. In addition, effective typhoon characteristics for improving forecasting performance are identified from all the collected typhoon information. Then the effective typhoon characteristics (the position of the typhoon and the distance between the typhoon center and the reservoir) are added to the proposed SVM-based models. Next, a performance comparison of models with and without effective typhoon characteristics is conducted to clearly highlight the effects of effective typhoon characteristics on hourly reservoir inflow forecasting. To reach a just conclusion, the performance is evaluated by cross validation, and the improvement in performance due to the addition of effective typhoon characteristics is tested by paired comparison t-tests at the 5% significance level. The results confirm that effective typhoon characteristics do improve the forecasting performance and the improvement increases with increasing lead-time, especially when the rainfall data are not available. For four- to six-hour ahead forecasts, the improvement due to the addition of effective typhoon characteristics increases from 3% to 18% and from 10% to 113% for Categories I (rainfall data are available) and II (rainfall data are not available), respectively. In conclusion, effective typhoon characteristics are recommended as key inputs for reservoir inflow forecasting during typhoons. The proposed SVM-based models with effective typhoon characteristics are expected to provide more accurate forecasts than BPN-based models. The proposed modeling technique is also expected to be useful to support reservoir operation systems and other disaster warning systems.     

Public perception of climate change and disaster preparedness: Evidence from the Philippines

The Philippines is highly susceptible to both geophysical and climate-related disasters. This article explores Filipinos knowledge and perception of climate change and their association with what action Filipinos take to prepare for rapid onset natural hazards such as typhoons. Data for this study were collected from a nationally representative random survey of 5,184 adults conducted between March and April of 2017. Filipinos self-report relatively low levels of knowledge of climate change and cited increased temperatures, shifts in seasons, and heavier rains as the most likely consequences. Levels of disaster preparedness in the Philippines differ widely by region. Although most Filipinos perceive that natural hazards are a risk to them, only a third of Filipinos undertake measures to prepare for disasters. Filipinos who perceive climate-related changes directly impacting their households report taking greater action to prepare for disasters. Filipinos who believe they have been directly impacted by climate-related changes are also more likely to prepare for disasters, take planning actions, and undertake material actions to prepare, such as dwelling improvements. Other factors associated with disaster preparedness include gender, membership in an association, wealth, risk perception, and prior exposure to and losses due to disasters. The findings imply that, while posing different challenges and requiring different responses, adaptation to climate change and disaster preparedness are inherently associated and potentially mutually reinforcing. Policies and programs would arguably benefit from a more unified intervention framework that links climate change adaptation and disaster preparedness.     

BOOK REVIEWS

Book Reviewed in this article: Unfairly Structured Cities . Blair Badcock Religion and Rural Revolt . Janos M. Bak and Gerhard Benecke The Industrial Geography of Canada . Anthony Blackbourn and Robert G. Putnam The Cuban-American Experience, Culture, Images, and Perspectives. Thomas D. Boswell and James R. Curtis Quaternary Paleoclimatology . R. S. Bradley Development and Crisis in Brazil, 1930–1983 . Luiz Bresser Pereiras Centres of Origin in Biogeography . John C. Briggs Analytical Urban Geography . Martin Cadwallader Geomorphology . Richard J. Chorley , Stanley A. Schumm, and David E. Sugden South Africa: The Impact of Past Geographies . A. J. Christopher The Geography of Underdevelopment. A Critical Survey . D. K. Forbes Health Care in Developing Countries . Wilbert M. Gesler Place to Grow Old: The Meaning of Environment in Old Age . Stephen M. Golant The Emerging Marine Economy of the Pacific . Chennat Gopalakrishnan An Introduction to Agricultural Geography . David B. Grigg The Soviet Union: A Geographical Study . G. Melvyn Howe Geographical Aspects of Health: Essays in Honour of Andrew Learmonth . N. D. Mc Glashan and J. R. Blunden Physical Geography: A Landscape Appreciation . Tom L. Mc Knight Mountain Experience. The Psychology and Sociology of Adventure. Richard G. Mitchell Jr . Systematic and Regional Biogeography. Stanley A. Morain The Economic Transformation of American Cities. T. J. Noyelle and T. M. Stanback , Jr . Normal Accidents: Living With High-Risk Technologies. Charles Perrow Vanishing Farmland: A Legal Solution for the States. Sarah E. Redfield Applied Methods of Regional Analysis: The Spatial Dimensions of Development Policy. Dennis A. Rondinelli Urbanization in Romania. A Geography of Social and Economic Change Since Independence. Per Ronnas Statistical Techniques in Geographical Analysis. Gareth Shaw and Dennis Wheeler The Granite Garden: Urban Nature and Human Design. Anne Whiston Spirn Political Geography: Recent Advances and Future Directions. Peter Taylor and John House Geographia y Medio Ambiente. Manuel Valenzuela -Rubío Nãgara and Commandery: Origins of the Southeast Asian Urban Traditions. Paul Wheatley The Common Fisheries Policy of the European Community. Mark Wise Geography and Gender. Women and Geography Study Group of the IBG Technological Hazards. D. J. Zeigler , J. H. Johnson , S. D. Brunn     

葫芦岛市龙港区渔民村发生罕见冰灾及成因分析

2007年1月5日葫芦岛市龙港区渔民村发生罕见冰情灾害,国家海洋环境预报中心的科研人员对冰灾进行了实地考察.本文较详细地介绍了冰情灾害状况,并根据有关的海洋和气象的观测资料,对冰灾发生的成因进行了分析研究,这对今后的防冰减灾具有重要的意义.     

断裂性质与滑坡分布的关系——以汶川地震中的大型滑坡为例

美姑河流域地处全球滑坡灾害密集的云贵高原与川西南山地过渡带,该地区因地貌类型特殊,大型-巨型滑坡数量多、危害重、成因机理复杂,成为河谷区重大工程和城镇建设的安全隐患。笔者在国内外古滑坡研究成果分析的基础上,总结了美姑河流域古滑坡时空展布、滑坡对顺构造地貌响应、滑坡孕灾-控灾机理,滑坡成灾模式与主控因素等方面的研究进展。结合当前滑坡防灾减灾实际需求,提出美姑河流域顺构造地貌控制下古滑坡孕灾模式研究的3个优选方向：(1)不同发育强度的顺构造地貌对滑坡孕灾-控灾模式,(2)构造差异隆升对顺构造地貌区大型滑坡发育的孕灾模式,(3)通过古滑坡年代学研究建立断裂、褶皱、古地震和古气候变化与滑坡发育的对应联系。破解这些研究方向的关键科学问题,将为西南山区古滑坡研究及防灾减灾起到积极指导作用。     

BOOK REVIEWS

Book Reviewed in this article: Women, Work, and Ideology in the Third World . Haleh Afshar, ed. The Birth of the National Park Service. The Founding Years 1913–33 . Horace M. Albright Theatres of Accumulation: Studies in Asian and Latin American Urbanization . Warwick Armstrong and T.G. McGee. New Tools for Social Scientists, Advances and Applications in Research Methods . William D. Berry and Michael S. Lewis -Beck , eds . Uncertain Dimensions: Western Overseas Empires in the Twentieth Century . Raymond F. Betts. Geography of Sugar Cane . Helmut Blume. The Mines of Neptune: Minerals and Metals from the Sea . Elisabeth Mann Borgese. Geographical Dimensions of Energy . F.J. Calzonetti and B.D. Solomon, eds. Statistical Methods for Geographers . W. A. V. Clark and P. L. Hosking. In The Wake of Columbus, Islands and Controversy . John DeVorsey, Jr., and John Parker, eds. Housing, States and Localities . Peter Dickens, Simon Duncan, Mark Goodwin and Fred Gray. Physician Location and Specialty Choice . Richard L. Ernst and Donald E. Yett. Practical Ecology for Geography and Biology: Survey, Mapping, and Data Analysis . D.D. Gilbertson , M. Kent and F.B. Pyatt Large Scale Water Transfers: Emerging Environmental and Social Experiences . Genady N. Golubev and Asit K. Biswas, eds. The Nature of the Environment . Andrew Goudie. Planning for Population Change . W.T.S. Gould and R. Lawton. The Niger and its Neighbors: Environmental History and Hydrobiology. Human Use and Health Hazards of the Major West African Rivers . A.T. Grove, ed. Remote Sensing of Ice and Snow . Dorothy K. Hall and Jaroslav Martinec. Atlas of Antebellum Southern Agriculture . Sam Bowers Hilliard. Galilee Divided; The Israel-Lebanon Frontier, 1916-1984 . Frederic C. Hor . Plains Country Towns . John C. Hudson. Agricultural Geography: A Social and Economic Analysis . Brian W. Ilbery. Industry in the 1980s: Structural Change and Interdependence . U.N. Industrial Development Organization. Crabgrass Frontier: The Suburbanization of the United States . Kenneth T. Jackson. The Industrial Geography of Italy . Russell King. Studies in Linguistic Geography: The Dialects of English in Britain and Ireland . John M. Kirk, Stewart Sanderson, J.D.A. Widdowson, eds. Tourism: A Community Approach . Peter E. Murphy. Cities and Services: The Geography of Collective Consumption . Steven Pinch. An Historical Geography of Europe 1800–1914 . Norman J. G. Pounds. An Introduction to Human Ecology Research on Agricultural Systems in Southeast Asia . A. Terry Rambo and Percy E. Sajise, eds. Discovering Past Landscapes . Michael Reed, ed. Managing the Ocean: Resources, Research, Law . Jacques G. Richardson, ed. Carta fitosociologica de la transecta botanica de la Patagonia Austral . F.A. Roig , Juan Anchorema , Orlando Dollenz , A.M. Faggi and Eduardo Mandez Intermetropolitan Migration in Canada: Changing Determinants over Three Decades . R. Paul Shaw. Chinese Cities—The Growth of the Metropolis since 1949 . Victor F. Sit, ed. Urbanization in the World-Economy . Michael Timberlake, ed. The Al Business: Commercial Uses of Artificial Intelligence . Patrick H. Winston and Karen A. Prendergast, eds.     

"碧利斯"台风对湘南造成的暴雨洪灾分析

"碧利斯"台风对湖南南部造成了"7·15"特大洪灾。本文简述了湘南暴雨洪灾的破坏情况,分析了本次洪灾的类型、基本特点以及灾区的地质特征;根据东江水库库区13个雨量站的雨量数据,对其暴雨中心的降雨量进行了计算分析;通过资兴市重灾区坪石的Google Earth卫星照片,分析了山洪型洪灾的地形因素。描述了降雨的利弊,最后提出了洪灾预警、水土保持、防洪工程等减灾对策。     

闽江上游地区山洪灾害风险评估*

以1994年5月的山洪作为典型案例,分析了闽江上游地区存在山洪灾害风险的自然原因和人文原因。通过山洪灾害的强频分析和以灾变系数为指标揭示了闽江上游地区山洪灾害风险的空间分布规律,结果表明,同一频度的山洪强度量度都是从西北向东南减少,且其灾变性在源地附近较强,离源地越远越弱。