青海玉树单台地震序列的尾波Q值研究

利用玉树单台记录到的2006年7月19日玉树Ms5．4级地震序列的数字地震波形资料，计算了不同频率下该序列尾波Q值的变化特征，为今后将数字地震资料应用到地震预报工作中提供了参考依据。     

Pits,rifts and slumps: the summit structure of Piton de la Fournaise

A clear model of structures and associated stress fields of a volcano can provide a framework in which to study and monitor activity. We propose a volcano-tectonic model for the dynamics of the summit of Piton de la Fournaise (La Reunion Island, Indian Ocean). The summit contains two main pit crater structures (Dolomieu and Bory), two active rift zones, and a slumping eastern sector, all of which contribute to the actual fracture system. Dolomieu has developed over 100 years by sudden large collapse events and subsequent smaller drops that include terrace formation. Small intra-pit collapse scars and eruptive fissures are located along the southern floor of Dolomieu. The western pit wall of Dolomieu has a superficial inward dipping normal fault boundary connected to a deeper ring fault system. Outside Dolomieu, an oval extension zone containing sub-parallel pit-related fractures extends to a maximum distance of 225 m from the pit. At the summit the main trend for eruptive fissures is N80°, normal to the north–south rift zone. The terraced structure of Dolomieu has been reproduced by analogue models with a roof to width ratio of approximately 1, suggesting an original magma chamber depth of about 1 km. Such a chamber may continue to act as a storage location today. The east flank has a convex–concave profile and is bounded by strike-slip fractures that define a gravity slump. This zone is bound to the north by strike-slip fractures that may delineate a shear zone. The southern reciprocal shear zone is probably marked by an alignment of large scoria cones and is hidden by recent aa lavas. The slump head intersects Dolomieu pit and may slide on a hydrothermally altered layer known to be located at a depth of around 300 m. Our model has the summit activity controlled by the pit crater collapse structure, not the rifts. The rifts become important on the mid-flanks of the cone, away from pit-related fractures. On the east flank the superficial structures are controlled by the slump. We suggest that during pit subsidence intra-pit eruptions may occur. During tumescence, however, the pit system may become blocked and a flank eruption is more likely. Intrusions along the rift may cause deformation that subsequently increases the slump’s potential to deform. Conversely, slumping may influence the east flank stress distribution and locally control intrusion direction. These predictions can be tested with monitoring data to validate the model and, eventually, improve monitoring.     

城市湖泊水华预警模型研究——以北京“六海”为例

采用决策树方法和非线性回归方法建立湖泊水华预警模型。决策树方法预测水华爆发时机,非线性回归方法预测水华爆发强度,并运用信号灯显示方法,划分出水华爆发的预警区间。以北京六海为例,模型结果表明来水水量Q,温度T和总磷浓度是影响“六海”湖泊水华爆发的主要影响因子,选择叶绿素a(Chl-a)<30 μg/L的预警信号为绿色,30 μg/L60 μg/L为红色。当每月来水量Q>79.0万m3或来水量Q<79.0万m3,水温<13.4℃,预警指标为绿色;Q<79.0万m3,水温T>13.4℃,水华预警为黄色;Q<38.7万m3时,T>23.25℃,TP>0.13 mg/L,水华预警为红色。对模型结果分类进行了验证。结果表明:模型对于限制因素发生变化时的水华预测结果更为准确,并且结构简单,输入输出关系明显,结果易于解释。     

济源市省庄地热区地质条件及成因特征

济源市省庄地热属于异常增温热水型及干热岩型地热区,是中国北方非火山岩浆岩区地热异常的典型地热区,地热水是大气降水通过盘古寺深大断层深循环的结果。地热分布受盘古寺断层、五龙口断层及次级断层的控制,并在断层交汇部位显示温度异常。热源来自于北部山区补给沿断层径流的深循环水。深循环水水温较高,与浅部受大气降水及地表水补给的冷水相混合。     

Gibbs sampler by sampling-importance-resampling

Among the Markov chain Monte Carlo methods, the Gibbs sampler has the advantage that it samples from the conditional distributions for each unknown parameter, thus decomposing the sample space. In the case the conditional distributions are not tractable, the Gibbs sampler by means of sampling-importance-resampling is presented here. It uses the prior density function of a Bayesian analysis as the importance sampling distribution. This leads to a fast convergence of the Gibbs sampler as demonstrated by the smoothing with preserving the edges of 3D images of emission tomography.     

省级基础地理信息数据更新方法探讨

主要从更新方法、技术方案及数据共享方面讨论了省级基础地理信息数据更新的相关问题。     

Socioeconomic Correlates of Increasing Crime Rates in Smaller Communities

This research analyzes changes in crime rates by city size and determines the extent to which these changes can be explained by socioeconomic variables. More particularly it addresses rates of change in mean crime rates for violent and property crime between 1976–1984 and 1985–1994 for all U. S. cities, then compares results to Ohio cities. It provides a detailed analysis of changing crime rates in 111 Ohio cities with populations between 10,000 and 99,999 inhabitants and attempts to account for crime differentials between these cities employing linear regression and factor analysis. Results indicate that crime is significantly related to poverty and its associated conditions and processes.     

韶关市旅游业发展前景初探

通过分析韶关市旅游业的发展现状及存在问题,结合城市旅游业发展条件的论述,探讨了韶关市旅游业发展前景,提出了市域旅游业应贯彻以市场为导向,实施“内筹外引,重点突出,综合配套,持续发展”的发展战略     

On an Earth ellipsoid best-fitted to the Earth surface

Historically, the mean Earth ellipsoid is obtained by fitting an ellipsoid of revolution to the geoid. Such an ellipsoid, however, does not necessarily best fit the physical surface of the Earth due to the existence of topography outside the geoid. In this paper, we present a purely geometrically defined Earth ellipsoid that best fits the physical surface of the Earth so that the resulting ellipsoidal height attains minimum global mean square value. Using a global digital terrain model and a global geopotential model, the size, shape and position of such an Earth ellipsoid have been numerically estimated. Received: 6 September 1996 / Accepted: 1 April 1998     

运用GPS测量对自贡市城市控制网点的改算

本文通过对运用GPS测量改算自贡市各等级城市控制网点成果的过程及结果的论述分析,证实了运用GPS测量改算城市控制网点成果具有精度好、效率高等特点。在此基础上探讨其可行性,并提出一些看法。