数值天气预报和气候预测的集合预报方法:思考与展望

从初始误差、模式误差以及两者综合影响的角度,综述了天气、气候集合预报方法的研究进展,指出了传统方法的优势,同时也评论了这些方法的局限性,提出了对未来先进集合预报方法的一些思考,以及需要解决的挑战性问题和可能的应用。     

基于BMA多模型组合的疏勒河径流预测研究

准确可靠的径流预测对于水资源的科学管理与规划具有重要意义,特别是在水资源紧缺的干旱半干旱地区,径流预测对流域内水资源高效利用与水利工程经济运行具有重要现实意义。针对径流预测通常采用单一方法进行建模与预测,难以利用各预测模型优势的问题,本文利用极限学习机（ELM）模型、支持向量机（SVM）模型、多元自适应回归样条（MARS）等机器学习方法建立了疏勒河上游未来1~7日的径流预测模型。在此基础上,运用贝叶斯模型平均（BMA）方法对ELM、SVM、MARS模型的预测结果进行组合,构建了径流组合预测模型,以获取更可靠的预测结果,并采用蒙特卡洛抽样方法获取BMA的95%置信区间,对预测结果进行了不确定性分析。结果表明：ELM、SVM、MARS模型以及BMA组合模型均适用于干旱半干旱地区的中长期日径流预测;BMA的预测精度较单一模型更高,能够提供更准确的预测值;BMA的95%置信区间对实测值覆盖率高,同时能够提供较好的确定性预测和概率预测结果。表明BMA在资料有限的条件下,表现出较单一模型更高的预测性能,可以成为干旱半干旱地区中长期日径流预测的有效方法。     

超大型会泽富锗铅锌矿复合成因

会泽富锗铅锌矿。是近年老矿山深部找矿取得重大突破的典范,而其成因则是当前研究、讨论的热点。笔者认为该矿之形成,既非“MVT型”,亦非“VMS型”,而是与深部隐伏燕山期酸性岩有关的中温岩浆热液叠加、改造、富化的复成因矿床。自加里东期起长期处于张裂环境。深部昭通．弥勒硅镁层隆起,既是幔源玄武岩（热地幔柱）上涌的前奏,又为深部矿源上升创造畅通空间。与多旋回活动的小江深断裂相沟通的NE向矩形断裂网,是导矿、输矿、储矿的有利构造。继火山热液成矿之后,伴随燕山期褶皱、断裂和深部酸性岩浆的上升,发生第二期叠加矿化．矿石中伴生与酸性岩有关的元素组合．并以与酸性岩有关的锗富集为特征。     

Extension spatiale de la salinisation des ressources en eau et modèle conceptuel des sources salées dans la plaine des Triffa (Maroc nord-oriental)

The succession of drought years and excessive abstraction in the plain of Triffa caused deterioration in water quality and endangers future exploitation of groundwater resources. A combination of geophysical surveys, including electrical resistivity and hydrochemical data has been used to identify the geographical extension of salinization and identify its origin. Electrical conductivity measurements are used to show the history of salinization in space and time. In this paper, a first conceptual model of the brackish springs has been established. To cite this article: M. Boughriba et al., C. R. Geoscience 338 (2006).     

大规模真实感三维地形技术综述

计算机虚拟仿真领域的地形构建及显示方法的研究动态,描述三维地形建模、基于视点相关的细分简化、基于块的格网简化、模型的纹理映射和显示控制、误差度量中,分析和总结几个主要方法的特点及使用场合．     

某高层建筑模型振动台试验结果分析

本文分析了广州市某２８层高层建筑模型模拟地震振动台试验结果,对此建筑的抗震性能进行了评价,考究了设置摩擦耗能支对其动力反应的减震作用。     

Global Plate Motions and Their Impact on the Earth's Surface Area Change

Based on their Euler poles,we calculated the relative velocities between every two plates in the typical global plate motion models,respectively,and estimated the area change along these boundaries. In our calculations,plates on both sides accommodated area changes depending on the boundary types: extensional, convergent or transform, so we can estimate area change of each plate and then globally. Our preliminary results show that the area of the southern hemisphere increased while that of the northern hemisphere decreased over the past 1 million years,and global area has increased by 26,000km2 to 36,000km2,which corresponds to the 160m～250m increment on the Earth's radius if all these area increments are attributed to Earth's expansion. Taking the NUVEL-1 model as an example,of the 14 plates in this model,11 are decreasing,but the global area has increased because of the larger increment amount from Africa,North America and Antarctica. Finally,we also discussed factors affecting the global area change such as subduction zone retreating and back-arc spreading.     

Copula models for frequency analysis what can be learned from a Bayesian perspective?

Large spring floods in the Québec region exhibit correlated peakflow, duration and volume. Consequently, traditional univariate hydrological frequency analyses must be complemented by multivariate probabilistic assessment to provide a meaningful design flood level as requested in hydrological engineering (based on return period evaluation of a single quantity of interest). In this paper we study 47 years of a peak/volume dataset for the Romaine River with a parametric copula model. The margins are modeled with a normal or gamma distribution and the dependence is depicted through a parametric family of copulas (Arch 12 or Arch 14). Parameter joint inference and model selection are performed under the Bayesian paradigm. This approach enlightens specific features of interest for hydrological engineering: (i) cross correlation between margin parameters are stronger than expected , (ii) marginal distributions cannot be forgotten in the model selection process and (iii) special attention must be addressed to model validation as far as extreme values are of concern.     

Evaluation of density in layer compaction using SASW method

SASW test, which is non-intrusive and rapid in the field application, was used to evaluate the layer density in the roller compaction without performing the complicated inversion process. The concept of normalized shear wave velocity was introduced to minimize the effect of confinement in the density evaluation. SASW test was performed to determine the shear wave velocity of the layer, and the free–free resonant column (FF–RC) test was adopted to determine the correlation between the normalized shear wave velocity and density of the site, which is almost unique independent of confinement. Testing and data reduction procedures of both tests were briefly discussed and an evaluation procedure of the field density was proposed by effectively combining in-situ shear wave velocity determined by the SASW test with the correlation between the normalized shear wave velocity and the density determined by the FF–RC test. Finally, the feasibility of the proposed method was verified by performing a field case study at Hoengsung road construction site. Field densities determined by the proposed method matched well with those determined by sand cone tests, showing the potential of applying the proposed method in the field density evaluation.     

Understanding of the Common Land Model performance for water and energy fluxes in a farmland during the growing season in Korea

The Common Land Model (CLM) is one of the most widely used land surface models (LSMs) due to the practicality of its simple parameterization scheme and its versatility in embracing a variety of field datasets. The improved assessment of land surface water and energy fluxes using CLM can be an alternative approach for understanding the complex land–atmosphere interactions in data‐limited regions. The understanding of water and energy cycles in a farmland is crucial because it is a dominant land feature in Korea and Asia. However, the applications of CLM to farmland in Korea are in paucity. The simulations of water and energy fluxes by CLM were conducted against those from the tower‐based measurements during the growing season of 2006 at the Haenam site (a farmland site) in Korea without optimization. According to the International Geosphere–Biosphere Programme (IGBP) land cover classification, a homogeneous cropland was selected initially for this study. Although the simulated soil moisture had a similar pattern to that of the observed, the former was relatively drier (at 0·1 m³ m^?3) than the latter. The simulated net radiation showed good agreement with the observed, with a root mean squared error (RMSE) of 41 W m^?2, whereas relatively large discrepancies between the simulation and observation were found in sensible (RMSE of 66 W m^?2) and latent (RMSE of 60 W m^?2) heat fluxes. On the basis of the sensitivity analysis, soil moisture was more receptive to land cover and soil texture parameterizations when compared to soil temperature and turbulent fluxes. Despite the uncertainty in the predictive capability of CLM employed without optimization, the initial performance of CLM suggests usefulness in a data‐limited heterogeneous farmland in Korea. Further studies are required to identify the controls on water and energy fluxes with an improved parameterization. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.