Probabilistic analysis of landslide potential of an inclined uniform soil layer of infinite length: theorem

A critical relation for mobilization (failure) of an inclined, uniform soil layer is developed, based on the requirement for balancing the driving stress and the resistance stress acting on the soil layer. Taking into consideration of the uncertainties of parameters of the considered soil layer, the equation of the failure probability (Eq. 18) and the equation of the critical slope at various probabilities of failure (Eq. 22) for the soil layer by applying the first-order second-moment method (FOSM) were developed. The failure probabilities at various mean relative water depths subject to the upper and lower values of the coefficients of variations of parameters and two inclined angles of the soil layers are also estimated by using the Monte Carlo simulation method (MCSM) as well as by using FOSM for comparisons. The results obtained by FOSM are in good agreement with that obtained by MCSM, but the former is more efficient. Given the mean values and the coefficients of variation of related parameters of the soil layer, one can easily estimate the failure probability and the critical failure slope of the soil layer by applying the equations or graphs developed in the present study.     

Flood and landslide applications of near real-time satellite rainfall products

Floods and associated landslides account for the largest number of natural disasters and affect more people than any other type of natural disaster. With the availability of satellite rainfall analyses at fine time and space resolution, it has also become possible to mitigate such hazards on a near-global basis. In this article, a framework to detect floods and landslides related to heavy rain events in near-real-time is proposed. Key components of the framework are: a fine resolution precipitation acquisition system; a comprehensive land surface database; a hydrological modeling component; and landslide and debris flow model components. A key precipitation input dataset for the integrated applications is the NASA TRMM-based multi-satellite precipitation estimates. This dataset provides near real-time precipitation at a spatial-temporal resolution of 3 h and 0.25° × 0.25°. In combination with global land surface datasets it is now possible to expand regional hazard modeling components into a global identification/monitoring system for flood/landslide disaster preparedness and mitigation.     

Trends in landslide occurrence in Nepal

Nepal is a mountainous, less developed kingdom that straddles the boundary between the Indian and Himalayan tectonic plates. In Nepal, landslides represent a major constraint on development, causing high levels of economic loss and substantial numbers of fatalities each year. There is a general consensus that the impacts of landslides in countries such as Nepal are increasing with time, but until now there has been little or no quantitative data to support this view, or to explain the causes of the increases. In this paper, a database of landslide fatalities in Nepal has been compiled and analysed for the period 1978–2005. The database suggests that there is a high level of variability in the occurrence of landslides from year to year, but that the overall trend is upward. Analyses of the trends in the data suggest that there is a cyclicity in the occurrence of landslide fatalities that strongly mirrors the cyclicity observed in the SW (summer) monsoon in South Asia. Perhaps surprisingly the relationship is inverse, but this is explained through an inverse relationship between monsoon strength and the amount of precipitation in the Hill District areas of Nepal. It is also clear that in recent years the number of fatalities has increased dramatically over and above the effects of the monsoon cycle. Three explanations are explored for this: land-use change, the effects of the ongoing civil war in Nepal, and road building. It is concluded that a major component of the generally upward trend in landslide impact probably results from the rural road-building programme, and its attendant changes to physical and natural systems.     

Spatio-temporal estimation of shallow landslide hazard triggered by rainfall using a three-dimensional model

A shallow landslide triggered by rainfall can be forecast in real-time by modeling the relationship between rainfall infiltration and decrease of slope stability. This paper describes a promising approach that combines an improved three-dimensional slope stability model with an approximate method based on the Green and Ampt model, to estimate the time–space distribution of shallow landslide hazards. Once a forecast of rainfall intensity and slope stability-related data, e.g., terrain and geology data, are acquired, this approach is shown to have the ability to estimate the variation of slope stability of a wide natural area during rainfall and to identify the location of potential failure surfaces. The effectiveness of the estimation procedures described has been tested by comparison with a one-dimensional method and by application to a landslide-prone area in Japan.     

Generation of a landslide risk index map for Cuba using spatial multi-criteria evaluation

This paper explains the procedure for the generation of a landslide risk index map at national level in Cuba, using a semi-quantitative model with ten indicator maps and a cell size of 90 × 90 m. The model was designed and implemented using spatial multi-criteria evaluation techniques in a GIS system. Each indicator was processed, analysed and standardised according to its contribution to hazard and vulnerability. The indicators were weighted using direct, pairwise comparison and rank-ordering weighting methods, and weights were combined to obtain the final landslide risk index map. The results were analysed per physiographic region and administrative units at provincial and municipal levels. The Sierra Maestra mountain system was found to have the largest concentration of high landslide risk index values while the Nipe–Cristal–Baracoa system has the highest absolute values, although they are more dispersed. The results obtained allow designing an appropriated landslide risk mitigation plan at national level and to link the information to the national hurricane early warning system, allowing also warning and evacuation for landslide-prone areas.     

A new hazard zonation methodology applied to residentially developed sea-cliffs with very low erosion rates,East Coast Bays,Auckland, New Zealand

A new hazard zonation methodology is applied to the East Coast Bays area of North Shore City, one of the most residentially developed cliffed shorelines in New Zealand. It is based on a series of geotechnical cliff profiles from three pilot study areas (George Gair Lookout, Rahopara Reserve–Kennedy Memorial Park, and Mairangi Bay–Rothesay Bay) which detail many of the variables that influence overall cliff stability. The methodology requires calculation of a Coastal Landslide Hazard Zone (CLHZ) width for each geotechnical profile and is derived by quantifying three factors: the rate of long-term sea-cliff retreat; the amount of horizontal retreat expected from either joint block fall, fault plane failure, or bedding plane failure, coupled with the amount of horizontal retreat resulting from slumping of the top weathered layer; and a safety factor. The rate of long-term sea-cliff retreat is multiplied by a hazard assessment period of 100 years, which is then added with the two other factors to derive a CLHZ width. Finally, the widths are entered into a Geographic Information System (GIS) to delineate a hazard zone. Owing to the very low rates (< 0.1 m a⁻¹) of sea-cliff retreat in the East Coast Bays area, the long-term rate of sea-cliff retreat at each profile location could not be quantified by conventional survey techniques. Instead, a Sea-cliff Vulnerability Index (SVI) was employed to quantify the long-term rate. Weighted variables considered in the SVI include the bedding dip direction, the occurrence of faults and their orientation, sea-cliff aspect, cliff-toe and cliff-face lithology, cliff-top height, and the presence of groundwater seepage. Calculated CLHZ widths along East Coast Bays range between 13 m and 34 m inland of a reference cliff-line in response to spatial variations of the sea-cliff geology and morphology. The widths reflect the estimated degree of risk over the next 100 years from coastal erosion and landslips.     

Hazard assessment by 3D stability analysis of landslides due to reservoir impounding

The Yudonghe landslide is located in a upcoming reservoir region of a 233-m-high Shuibuya rockfill dam, 2,300 m away from the dam site. It consists of a massive landslide with upper and lower segments and two secondary slides, i.e. an eastern secondary slide and a western secondary slide. In this paper, values of factor of safety (FS) for various masses were calculated in a scenario of reservoir impounding-induced increase in groundwater levels, using a method of three-dimensional (3D) limit equilibrium. Results showed that the smallest value of FS for the massive landslide is 1.12 computed on the presupposition of reactivating along a bottom slide zone in case of an earthquake. The smallest FS value of the lower slide mass is 1.12 in a possible direction, given earthquake occurrence and a groundwater level of 225 m above the sea level. This FS value shows that the lower slide mass is stable in case of groundwater increasing. In addition, by the calculation of the 3D limit equilibrium method, the FS value of the east secondary slide is approximately 1.0 in different groundwater levels under consideration of earthquake occurrence, which reflects that this mass is prone to reactivate when external factors are taken into effect.     

Increasing public awareness of natural hazards via the Internet

NOAA’s National Geophysical Data Center is using state-of-the-art Internet tools for natural hazards education, public outreach, and access to natural hazards data. For example, NGDC acquires, processes, and provides access to geologic hazards event data that are useful in natural hazards risk assessment and hazards-related research. In addition, a collection of natural hazards slides and a teacher’s guide on volcanoes are available online. NGDC also created an online “Kids Hazards Quiz” to test the user’s knowledge of disaster safety information. An online Natural Hazards Data Resources Directory provides access to information and links to organizations that provide natural hazards data and information. Expanded access to these data and information by the public and researchers can increase public awareness of natural hazards, improve hazards research, and ultimately reduce the devastating impacts of natural disasters.     

Landslide studies along the national highway (NH 39) in Manipur

The present study investigates the factors associated with the occurrence of landslides along with the National Highway (NH 39) connecting Assam-Manipur (India) to Myanmar. Kinematics and slope stability analyses were used to gain an understanding of the causes of slope failure despite the terrain comprising material with a high safety factor. The study area falls within a high seismic zone along the regional Churachandpur-Mao Thrust (CMT) situated west of the Indo-Myanmar subduction zone. Based on these studies of seismicity, slip rates, creeping, among others, it was inferred that CMT is a creeping regional fault running parallel to the subduction zone boundary creeping segment of CMT and that the CMT requires further monitoring to assess the landslide hazard in the region.     

江苏南京浦口猪头山滑坡成因机制与防治措施

浦口猪头山北坡出现滑坡迹象以来,滑坡险情不断加大,范围达到1km2,滑坡已由初始蠕变阶段发展到等速蠕滑阶段。为做好地质灾害防治工作,在系统分析研究滑坡成因的基础上,提出地质灾害防治措施,供开展地质灾害预防和治理工作中参考。