CNOP-P-based parameter sensitivity for double-gyre variation in ROMS with simulated annealing algorithm

Reducing the error of sensitive parameters by studying the parameters sensitivity can reduce the uncertainty of the model,while simulating double-gyre variation in Regional Ocean Modeling System(ROMS).Conditional Nonlinear Optimal Perturbation related to Parameter(CNOP-P)is an effective method of studying the parameters sensitivity,which represents a type of parameter error with maximum nonlinear development at the prediction time.Intelligent algorithms have been widely applied to solving Conditional Nonlinear Optimal Perturbation(CNOP).In the paper,we proposed an improved simulated annealing(SA)algorithm to solve CNOP-P to get the optimal parameters error,studied the sensitivity of the single parameter and the combination of multiple parameters and verified the effect of reducing the error of sensitive parameters on reducing the uncertainty of model simulation.Specifically,we firstly found the non-period oscillation of kinetic energy time series of double gyre variation,then extracted two transition periods,which are respectively from high energy to low energy and from low energy to high energy.For every transition period,three parameters,respectively wind amplitude(WD),viscosity coefficient(VC)and linear bottom drag coefficient(RDRG),were studied by CNOP-P solved with SA algorithm.Finally,for sensitive parameters,their effect on model simulation is verified.Experiments results showed that the sensitivity order is WD>VC>>RDRG,the effect of the combination of multiple sensitive parameters is greater than that of single parameter superposition and the reduction of error of sensitive parameters can effectively reduce model prediction error which confirmed the importance of sensitive parameters analysis.     

Statistical functions used for spatial modelling due to assessment of landslide distribution and landscape-interaction factors in Iran

Landslides influence the capacity for safe and sustainable development of mountainous environments.This study explores the spatial distribution of and the interactions between landslides that are mapped using global positioning system(GPS) and extensive field surveys in Mazandaran Province,Iran.Point-pattern assessment is undertaken using several univariate summary statistical functions,including pair correlation,spherical-contact distribution,nearest-neighbor analysis,and O-ring analysis,as well as bivariate summary statistics,and a markcorrelation function.The maximum entropy method was applied to prioritize the factors controlling the incidence of landslides and the landslides susceptibility map.The validation processes were considered for separated 30%data applying the ROC curves,fourfold plot,and Cohen's kappa index.The results show that pair correlation and O-ring analyses satisfactorily predicted landslides at scales from 1 to 150 m.At smaller scales,from 150 to 400 m,landslides were randomly distributed.The nearest-neighbor distribution function show that the highest distance to the nearest landslide occurred in the 355 m.The spherical-contact distribution revealed that the patterns were random up to a spatial scale of 80 m.The bivariate correlation functions revealed that landslides were positively linked to several linear features(including faults,roads,and rivers) at all spatial scales.The mark-correlation function showed that aggregated fields of landslides were positively correlated with measures of land use,lithology,drainage density,plan curvature,and aspect,when the numbers of landslides in the groups were greater than the overall average aggregation.The results of analysis of factor importance have showed that elevation(topography map scale:1:25,000),distance to roads,and distance to rivers are the most important factors in the occurrence of landslides.The susceptibility model of landslides indicates an excellent accuracy,i.e.,the AUC value of landslides was 0.860.The susceptibility map of landslides analyzed has shown that 35% of the area is low susceptible to landslides.     

植被覆盖对暴雨型滑坡影响的初步分析

根据遥感资料、地形数据和历史观测资料等,以江西省为例,分析了森林植被覆盖率、森林生物量和暴雨型滑坡的空间分布,以及森林植被类型对大气降水的截留作用。分析结果初步揭示了植被覆盖对滑坡的影响,认为植被覆盖程度高、生物量多和植被覆盖差、生物量低的中低山区,都可能发生滑坡灾害。不同林冠对降水的截留作用,减缓了降水对斜坡的冲刷,但当降水强度达到或超过暴雨强度时,森林对降水的截留率减小。同等地质环境条件下,植被覆盖率低,滑坡较易发生,但当降水强度较大时,特别是达到诱发滑坡灾害发生的临界值时,植被对滑坡体的重力作用则更加重了滑坡的发生。植被覆盖对滑坡的影响主要取决于降水强度。高森林覆盖区发生滑坡的雨量临界值大于森林覆盖率差的区域。     

Height variability from the MIROC – IPCC model for the 20th century compared to that of the TOPEX/POSEIDON altimeter

Planetary waves are key to large-scale dynamical adjustment in the global ocean as they transfer energy from the east to the west side of oceanic basins; they connect the forcing in the ocean interior with the variability at its boundaries; and they change the local heat content, thus coupling oceanic, atmospheric, and biological processes. Planetary waves, mostly of the first baroclinic mode, are observed as distinctive patterns in global time series of sea surface height anomaly (SSHA) and heat storage. The goal of this study is to compare and validate large-scale SSHA signals from coupled ocean-atmosphere general circulation Model for Interdisciplinary Research on Climate (MIROC) with TOPEX/POSEIDON satellite altimeter observations. The last decade of the models’ time series is selected for comparison with the altimeter data. The wave patterns are separated from the meso- and large-scale SSHA signals by digital filters calibrated to select the same spectral bands in both model and altimeter data. The band-wise comparison allows for an assessment of the model skill to simulate the dynamical components of the observed wave field. Comparisons regarding both the seasonal cycle and the Rossby wave field differ significantly among basins. When carried within the same basin, differences can occur between equal latitudes in opposite hemispheres. Furthermore, at some latitudes the MIROC reproduces biannual, annual and semiannual planetary waves with phase speeds and average amplitudes similar to those observed by the altimeter, but with significant differences in phase.     

GIS based spatial data analysis for landslide susceptibility mapping

Landslide susceptibility map delineates the potential zones for landslides occurrence. The paper presents a statistical approach through spatial data analysis in GIS for landslide susceptibility mapping in parts of Sikkim Himalaya. Six important causative factors for landslide occurrences were selected and corresponding thematic data layers were prepared in GIS. Topographic maps,satellite image,field data and published maps constitute the input data for thematic layer preparation. Numerical weights for different categories of these factors were determined based on a statistical approach and the weighted thematic layers were integrated in GIS environment to generate the landslide susceptibility map of the area. The landslide susceptibility map classifies the area into five different landslide susceptible zones i.e.,very high,high,moderate,low and very low. This map was validated using the existing landslide distribution in the area.     

中心逼近式灰色GM(1,1)模型在滑坡变形预测中的应用

黄龙西村滑坡位于甘肃天水,属黄土高势能滑坡,滑体体积3.9105m3,基底为花岗闪长岩。为了提高滑坡灰色GM(1,1)模型的预测精度,采用一种改变背景值的方法--中心逼近式灰色GM(1,1)模型。通过黄龙西村滑坡实例验证分析,结果表明中心逼近式灰色GM(1,1)模型的预测值与该滑坡实际监测值十分接近,且其残差平方和及平均误差百分比明显比传统灰色GM(1,1)模型的残差平方和及平均误差百分比小,具有较高的预测精度。同时,可通过调整模型中参数m的取值,使中心逼近式灰色GM(1,1)模型具有更高的预测精度。经计算,当m=6时,中心逼近式灰色GM(1,1)模型的预测精度比传统灰色GM(1,1)模型提高了5.34%。     

陕南山地滑坡和泥石流分布特征及其相关性

滑坡和泥石流是陕南山地成灾的主要物理地质现象。本文根据野外调查资料和前人研究成果,从地质、地貌、水文工程地质特征、水文气象、人为因素诸方面,简要的分析了陕南山地滑坡、泥石流形成条件、区域分布规律滑坡对泥石流形成的影响和滑坡转化成泥石流的辩证关系。     

Work, persistence, and formative events: The geomorphic impact of landslides

Understanding the scale and frequency of physical processes that act upon and form the surface of the Earth is a fundamental goal of earth science. Here we determine the magnitudes of landslides that impact the landscape in terms of work, persistence, and formative events. A systematic analysis of rapid landsliding (the analysis did not consider creep and other slow semi-continuous processes) indicates that moderate-sized landslides do the most work transporting material on hillslopes. The work peak defines the moderate magnitude, and that magnitude varies based on local physiography and climate. Landslides that form the work peak are distinct from catastrophic landslides that are themselves formative and system resetting. The persistence time for debris slides/debris flows (P_DS) and rock slides/rock avalanches (P_RS) is calculated over six orders of magnitude. We consider an event catastrophic when it persists in the landscape, as described by a persistence ratio (P_F), an order of magnitude longer than the population of landslides that form the work peak.     

三峡水库区万州独生基滑坡稳定性分析

独生基滑坡位于重庆市万州区长江右岸。为百安坝斜坡松散堆积层沿下伏软弱层面滑动的滑坡体。属于降雨及地表生活排水诱发、人类工程活动加剧变形而形成的新滑坡。论文在分析和研究滑坡区地质环境背景、平剖面形态、特征及诱发因素的基础上,采用传递系数法计算了滑坡体各工况及荷载组合条件下的稳定系数。通过计算,滑坡在天然状态、加载及暴雨条件下均处于不稳定状态。最后根据滑坡特征、主要诱发因素及其稳定性,针对滑坡体失稳特征,通过防治方案对比,初步拟定以抗滑桩工程进行治理,以保证滑坡体的稳定。     

A deterministic approach for preparation of seismic hazard maps in North East India

A method of seismic zonation based on deterministic modeling of rupture plane is presented in this work. This method is based on the modeling of finite rupture plane along identified lineaments in the region using the semi-empirical technique, of Midorikawa [(1993) Tectonophysics 218:287–295]. The modeling procedure follows ω² scaling law, directivity effects, and other strong motion parameters. The technique of zonation is applied for technoeconomically important NE part of Brahmaputra valley that falls in the seismic gap region of Himalaya. Zonation map prepared for Brahmaputra valley for earthquakes of magnitude M > 6.0 show that approximately 90,000 km² area fall in the highly hazardous zone IV, which covers region that can have peak ground accelerations of order more than 250 cm/s². The zone IV covers the Tezu, Tinsukia, Dibrugarh, Ziro, North Lakhimpur, Itanagar, Sibsagar, Jorhat, Golaghat, Wokha, Senapati, Imphal, and Kohima regions. The Pasighat, Daring, Basar, and Seppa region belong to zone III with peak ground accelerations of the order 200–250 cm/s². The seismic zonation map obtained from deterministic modeling of the rupture is consistent with the historical seismicity map and it has been found that the epicenter of many moderate and major earthquakes fall in the identified zones.