基于分层分户图的室内外一体化三维模型构建与应用

房产三维是三维GIS的应用重点,分层分户图的三维建模更是房产三维建设的重要组成部分.本文对比了3 Ds Max建模、平面拉伸建模和分层分户图建模方法,分析了分层分户图建模优势,重点研究了分层分户图建立三维模型的方法.     

20世纪90年代以来北极海冰减少的热动力分析——基于PIOMAS模式结果

本文利用美国华盛顿大学的PIOMAS海冰模式输出结果,分析了20世纪90年代以来北极海冰减少的动力和热力过程的特征,并探讨了海冰减少与北极大气环流模态之间的关系。结果表明:（1）通过弗拉姆海峡输出的多年冰的厚度自1995年以来有显著减少;（2）海冰的热力过程在20世纪90年代以后特别是21世纪以来是海冰减少的主导因素;（3）大气模态中的北极涛动（AO）和北极偶极子（AD）均对北极海冰的动力输出有影响,各自与海冰输出量的相关关系显著,并且AO和AD的多元线性回归能很好的拟合出海冰输出量的减少。     

BCC二代气候系统模式的季节预测评估和可预报性分析

本文利用国家气候中心（BCC）第二代季节预测模式系统历史回报数据,从确定性预报和概率预报两个方面系统地评估了该模式对气温、降水和大气环流的季节预报性能,并与BCC一代气候预测模式的结果进行了对比,重点分析了二代模式的季节可预报性问题。结果显示,BCC二代模式对全球气温、降水和环流的预报性能整体上优于一代模式,特别在热带中东太平洋、印度洋和海洋大陆地区的温度和降水的预报效果改进尤为明显。这些热带地区降水预报的改进,可以通过激发太平洋—北美型（PNA）、东亚—太平洋型（EAP）等遥相关波列提升该模式在中高纬地区的季节预报技巧。分析表明,厄尔尼诺和南方涛动（ENSO）信号在热带和热带外地区均是模式季节可预报性的重要来源,BCC二代模式能够较好把握全球大气环流对ENSO信号的响应特征,从而通过对ENSO预报技巧的改进有效地提升了模式整体的预报性能。从概率预报来看,BCC二代模式对我国冬季气温和夏季降水具备一定的预报能力,特别是对我国东部大部分地区冬季气温正异常和负异常事件预报的可靠性和辨析度相对较高。因此,进一步提高模式对热带大尺度异常信号和大气主要模态的预报能力、加强概率预报产品释用对提高季节气候预测水平具有重要意义。     

Predicting demand for 311 non-emergency municipal services: An adaptive space-time kernel approach

Many cities in the United States and Canada offer a 311 helpline to their residents for submitting requests for non-emergency municipal services. By dialing 311, urban residents can report a range of public issues that require governmental attention, including potholes, graffito, sanitation complaints, and tree debris. The demand for these municipal services fluctuates greatly with time and location, which poses multiple challenges to effective deployment of limited resources. To address these challenges, this study uses a locally adaptive space-time kernel approach to model 311 requests as an inhomogeneous Poisson process and presents an analytical framework to generate predictions of 311 demand in space and time. The predictions can be used to optimally allocate resources and staff, reduce response time, and allow long-term dynamic planning. We use a bivariate spatial kernel to identify the spatial structure and weigh each kernel by corresponding past observations to capture the temporal dynamics. Short-term serial dependency and weekly temporality are modeled through the temporal weights, which are adaptive to local community areas. We also transform the computation-intensive parameter estimation procedure to a low dimensional optimization problem by fitting to the autocorrelation function of historical requests. The presented method is demonstrated and validated with sanitation service requests in Chicago. The results indicate that it performs better than common industry practice and conventional spatial models with a comparable computational cost.     

Identifying and assessing the residency effect in Pocatello,Idaho, using combined census and parcel data

Human residency is the spatial effect source on ecosystem and thus it should be studied and assessed. Supporting residency effect research, this study developed and applied procedures and a model to combine census and parcel data for the assessment. The case study is in Pocatello, Idaho, where revealing land service associated with flood control and locating/evaluating resident effect are needed. Methods include (1) data mining, (2) land service valuation, (3) data screening, (4) integration of census and parcel data, (5) data screening, and (5) analysis and modeling with R programing language and ArcMap. Results are, for land service assessment, land value per area unit in residence areas (LAND) along the concrete channel (for flood control) was less than that along the Portneuf River. Spatial responses under LAND to a source effect (either the concrete channel or the river) are the same. The applied methods helped locate and assess a variety of residency effects spatio-temporally. Results informed the human preferences under LAND and the effect distribution to support decision-making. Technically, using the parcels as a baseline provided comprehensive results with a fine resolution for the effect study, particularly as combined with the census data. This study suggests using a data screening and validation procedure besides the mining approach to minimize outcome uncertainty.     

非线性时间序列分析的最新进展及其在地球科学中的应用前景

评述了非线性时间序列分析的最新进展,包括相空间重构、序列性质的鉴别、建模与预报,同时介绍了非线性时间序列分析在地球科学中的应用概况。     

APPLICATION OF UAVLS TO RAPID GEOLOGICAL SURVEYS

Three-dimensional scanning with LiDAR has been widely used in geological surveys. The LiDAR with high accuracy is promoting geoscience quantification. And it will be much more convenient, efficient and useful when combining it with the Unmanned Aerial Vehicle (UAV). This study focuses on UAV-based Laser Scanning (UAVLS)geological field mapping, taking two examples to present advantages of the UAVLS in contrast with other mapping methods. For its usage in active fault mapping, we scanned the Nanpo village site on the Zhangxian segment of the West Qinling north-edge fault. It effectively removed the effects of buildings and vegetation, and uncovered the fault trace. We measured vertical offset of 1.3m on the terrace T₁ at the Zhang river. Moreover, we also scanned landslide features at the geological hazard observatory of Lanzhou University in the loess area. The scanning data can help understand how micro-topography affects activation of loess landslides. The UAVLS is time saving in the field, only spending about half an hour to scan each site. The amount of average points per meter is about 600, which can offer topography data with resolution of centimeter. The results of this study show that the UAVLS is expected to become a common, efficient and economic mapping tool.     

利用近震高频接收函数研究四川理县西山村滑坡体结构

远震接收函数已广泛用于反演台站下方的结构,然而由于地球的非弹性衰减作用,远震数据较难获得高频接收函数,对浅地表结构约束不足.为了克服这一问题,我们使用近震数据的高频接收函数来研究浅表速度结构,并应用于四川理县西山村滑坡体上3个宽频带地震仪记录到的近震事件.本文发展了接收函数V_P-k(V_P/V_S)叠加方法,结合接收函数H-k叠加和波形反演方法获得了台站下方滑坡体的厚度、S波速度和平均V_P/V_S比,并与钻孔得到的滑坡体厚度进行对比.结果表明,滑坡体具有小尺度的横向不均匀性,台站下方滑坡体的平均V_P/V_S比在2.4~3.1之间变化并且在底层存在78~143m·s~(-1)左右的S波低速层.本文观测到的高V_P/V_S比和底层低的S波速度结构,与电磁法获得的滑坡体底层低的电阻率和底部富水特征一致,表明滑坡体h1底界面的抗剪强度相对较弱,是潜在的滑坡危险区域.本文研究结果表明,利用近震接收函数能有效约束浅表的速度结构,进而能为滑坡灾害治理提供一定的地震学参考.     

M5'模型树算法和无人机航拍影像在震后崩塌滑坡分析中的应用——以鲁甸M_S6.5地震为例

利用高分辨率无人机航拍影像,结合基本地质资料,分析了影响2014年8月3日鲁甸M_S6.5地震震后崩塌滑坡分布的主要因素,使用M5'模型树算法建立了崩塌滑坡密度与其影响因子间的分段线性模型,并检验了该模型的预测性能。结果表明,地震诱发的崩塌滑坡分布受断层距、岩土体结构强度、坡度、植被条件等的影响,其中,断层距、岩土体结构强度及坡度等为主要影响因素;崩塌滑坡易发生在结构破裂区及坡度为38°~50°的区域,其分布密度随断层距的增加而减小;利用M5'模型树算法建立的模型体现出崩塌滑坡分布与其影响因子间复杂的非线性关系,模型检验结果显示,理论模型与实际关联函数间的相关系数达到0.88,因此,可利用该模型预测地震诱发的崩塌滑坡的分布。