突变理论在边坡工程应用的研究进展

突变理论是非线性科学领域中的一个重要分支,作为一种数学工具已经在众多领域得到广泛应用,在边坡工程中的应用尤为活跃。首先简述了突变理论的发展概况和基本原理,然后分别从3个方面详细论述了突变理论在边坡工程应用中的研究进展,即基于尖点突变法的边(斜)坡稳定性分析、基于突变级数法的边(斜)坡稳定性评价和基于灰色理论、模糊数学的尖点突变预测模型对滑坡时间预报,重点讨论了相应的理论模型、应用方法和实际效果,最后结合目前存在的问题探讨突变理论在边坡工程的发展趋势。     

基于激光点云数据的古建筑BIM几何模型构建

针对古建筑BIM各种信息模型中几何模型构建的问题,提出应用三维激光点云数据和CloudWorx软件进行建模的方法。应用Cyclone软件对点云数据进行去噪、配准,按构件进行分割;应用CloudWorx软件进行模型的构建。研究古建筑的瓦片、柱体、梁、墙体、围栏等构件的建模方法,通过模型合并生成古建筑的整体几何模型。     

Modelling spatial distribution of critically endangered Asian elephant and Hoolock gibbon in Bangladesh forest ecosystems under a changing climate

The Asian elephant (Elephas maximus) and Hoolock gibbon (Hoolock hoolock) are two globally endangered wildlife species limited to only tropical Asian forests. In Bangladesh both species are critically endangered and distributed mainly in the northeast and southeast hilly regions bordering neighboring India and Myanmar. Using existing distribution data, land-use/land cover, elevation and bio-climatic variables, we modeled the likely distribution of Asian elephant and Hoolock gibbon in Bangladesh for 2050 and 2070. We used the IPCC's Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) – RCP6.0 and RCP8.5 and Maximum Entropy algorithm for our modelling. Our study indicated that the Asian elephant will be more resilient to climate change compared with the Hoolock gibbon. Habitat loss for the Asian elephant is also expected to remain constant (i.e. 38%) throughout the period, whilst Hoolock gibbon habitat will be more sensitive to climatic variations, with the species predicted to be extirpated from the country by 2070. Being highly exposed to climate change with ever increasing land use pressures, we believe our study in Bangladesh can be used to enhance our understanding of future vulnerabilities of wildlife in a rapidly changing climate. A trans-boundary conservation program with greater attention to the species that are less resilient to climate change is also essential.     

Geometry of two glacial valleys in the northern Pyrenees estimated using gravity data

We estimate using gravity data the thickness of post-glacial unconsolidated sediment filling two major glacial valleys in northern Pyrenees: the Gave de Pau valley between Pierrefitte-Nestalas and Lourdes, and the Garonne valley between Saint-Béat and Barbazan. One hundred and eighty-four new gravity data complete 74 measurements obtained from the International Gravimetric Bureau database. Negative residual anomalies resulting from the presence of small-density unconsolidated sediment approach 4 mgal in both the Gave de Pau and the Garonne valleys. Estimating the sediment thickness requires knowing the density contrast between Quaternary sediments and the underlying bedrock. Supposing this density contrast is 600 kg/m³, the maximum estimated thickness of post-glacial sediment is ∼ 230 and 300 meters, and the volume of sediment is 2.1 and 3.2 km³ in the Gave de Pau and Garonne valleys, respectively. In both valleys, the depth of Quaternary sediment suddenly increases at the confluence between two major glacial valleys (Gave de Pau – Gave de Cauterets, and Garonne – Pique confluences). Overdeepened basins are less deep downstream when approaching terminal moraines (Lourdes and Barbazan area), illustrating that the efficiency of glacial erosion depends on the ice flux flowing through valleys.     

组合压气机中尾迹与势流同频/异频干涉的叠加特性

为揭示多级压气机中上下游叶轮对中间叶片叠加气动影响特性,阐述不同叠加干涉情况下下游叶轮进气角度变化,采用数值方法模拟了一级轴流和一级离心组成的组合压气机非定常流场。详细讨论了上游动叶尾迹和下游动叶势流对中间导流叶栅段气流非定常流动的异频和同频叠加干涉特性,依据计算结果,直观地展示了静叶通道中两种干涉间相互激励和抑制作用的位置和时间,与数学公式的推导结果相互印证。研究结果表明:当上下游动叶对中间静叶段异频干涉时,干涉的激励、抑制区域的轴向位置随时间发生变化;当上下游动叶对中间静叶干涉频率相同时,干涉的相互激励、抑制区域的轴向位置不随时间发生变化,但干涉的激励、抑制区域的轴向位置受时序位置影响。另外,上游动叶尾迹与下游离心叶轮势流的不同叠加情况,决定着下游离心叶轮进口相对气流角的大小及波动幅值。      

Biomass strategies for climate policies?

Abstract

This paper discusses the results of the BEAP linear programming model that has been developed to study the optimal use of biomass and land for greenhouse gas emission reduction, notably the competition between food production, biomass production for energy and materials and afforestation. The model results suggest up to 100 EJ biomass use in case of global policies (about 20% of global primary energy use). The biomass is used for industrial and residential heating, transportation fuels and as a feedstock for plastics. In the electricity markets competing emission reduction options are more cost-effective than biomass. In case the Kyoto protocol is continued beyond 2010 the developed countries can rely in 2020–2030 on afforestation and land use change credits from developing countries, without any major use of other emission reduction strategies. However, in case of a planning perspective of more than half a century bioenergy is preferred instead of afforestation. The results indicate a limited impact on global agricultural trade, but food demand may be affected by CO₂ policies.     

Inverse problem in hydrogeology

The state of the groundwater inverse problem is synthesized. Emphasis is placed on aquifer characterization, where modelers have to deal with conceptual model uncertainty (notably spatial and temporal variability), scale dependence, many types of unknown parameters (transmissivity, recharge, boundary conditions, etc.), nonlinearity, and often low sensitivity of state variables (typically heads and concentrations) to aquifer properties. Because of these difficulties, calibration cannot be separated from the modeling process, as it is sometimes done in other fields. Instead, it should be viewed as one step in the process of understanding aquifer behavior. In fact, it is shown that actual parameter estimation methods do not differ from each other in the essence, though they may differ in the computational details. It is argued that there is ample room for improvement in groundwater inversion: development of user-friendly codes, accommodation of variability through geostatistics, incorporation of geological information and different types of data (temperature, occurrence and concentration of isotopes, age, etc.), proper accounting of uncertainty, etc. Despite this, even with existing codes, automatic calibration facilitates enormously the task of modeling. Therefore, it is contended that its use should become standard practice.

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Resumen Se sintetiza el estado del problema inverso en aguas subterráneas. El énfasis se ubica en la caracterización de acuíferos, donde los modeladores tienen que enfrentar la incertidumbre del modelo conceptual (principalmente variabilidad temporal y espacial), dependencia de escala, muchos tipos de parámetros desconocidos (transmisividad, recarga, condiciones limitantes, etc), no linealidad, y frecuentemente baja sensibilidad de variables de estado (típicamente presiones y concentraciones) a las propiedades del acuífero. Debido a estas dificultades, no puede separarse la calibración de los procesos de modelado, como frecuentemente se hace en otros campos. En su lugar, debe de visualizarse como un paso en el proceso de entendimiento del comportamiento del acuífero. En realidad, se muestra que los métodos reales de estimación de parámetros no difieren uno del otro en lo esencial, aunque sí pueden diferir en los detalles computacionales. Se discute que existe amplio espacio para la mejora del problema inverso en aguas subterráneas: desarrollo de códigos amigables al usuario, acomodamiento de variabilidad a través de geoestadística, incorporación de información geológica y diferentes tipos de datos (temperatura, presencia y concentración de isótopos, edad, etc), explicación apropiada de incertidumbre, etc. A pesar de esto, aún con los códigos existentes, la calibración automática facilita enormemente la tarea de modelado. Por lo tanto, se sostiene que su uso debería de convertirse en práctica standard.

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Résumé Létat du problème inverse des eaux souterraines est synthétisé. Laccent est placé sur la caractérisation de laquifère, où les modélisateurs doivent jouer avec lincertitude des modèles conceptuels (notamment la variabilité spatiale et temporelle), les facteurs déchelle, plusieurs inconnues sur différents paramètres (transmissivité, recharge, conditions aux limites, etc.), la non linéarité, et souvent la sensibilité de plusieurs variables détat (charges hydrauliques, concentrations) des propriétés de laquifère. A cause de ces difficultés, le calibrage ne peut être séparé du processus de modélisation, comme cest le cas dans dautres cas de figure. Par ailleurs, il peut être vu comme une des étapes dans le processus de détermination du comportement de laquifère. Il est montré que les méthodes dévaluation des paramètres actuels ne diffèrent pas si ce nest dans les détails des calculs informatiques. Il est montré quil existe une large panoplie de techniques d ‹inversion : codes de calcul utilisables par tout-un-chacun, accommodation de la variabilité via la géostatistique, incorporation dinformations géologiques et de différents types de données (température, occurrence, concentration en isotopes, âge, etc.), détermination de lincertitude. Vu ces développements, la calibration automatique facilite énormément la modélisation. Par ailleurs, il est souhaitable que son utilisation devienne une pratique standardisée.

     

A comparison of the GIS based landslide susceptibility assessment methods: multivariate versus bivariate

The purpose of this study is to evaluate and to compare the results of multivariate (logical regression) and bivariate (landslide susceptibility) methods in Geographical Information System (GIS) based landslide susceptibility assessment procedures. In order to achieve this goal the Asarsuyu catchment in NW Turkey was selected as a test zone because of its well-known landslide occurrences interfering with the E-5 highway mountain pass.Two methods were applied to the test zone and two separate susceptibility maps were produced. Following this a two-fold comparison scheme was implemented. Both methods were compared by the Seed Cell Area Indexes (SCAI) and by the spatial locations of the resultant susceptibility pixels.It was found that both of the methods converge in 80% of the area; however, the weighting algorithm in the bivariate technique (landslide susceptibility method) had some severe deficiencies, as the resultant hazard classes in overweighed areas did not converge with the factual landslide inventory map. The result of the multivariate technique (logical regression) was more sensitive to the different local features of the test zone and it resulted in more accurate and homogeneous susceptibility maps.     

Undrained dynamic-loading ring-shear apparatus and its application to landslide dynamics

Landslides are gravitational mass movements of rock, debris or earth. Some move very slowly, thus conforming to the field of statics, but some move rapidly. Study of the initiation and motion of rapid landslides needs to develop Landslide Dynamics involving dynamic loading and dynamic generation/dissipation of excess pore-water pressure. New developments in science can be facilitated by new technological advances. This study aimed to develop a new apparatus that can geotechnically simulate the formation of the shear zone and the following long and rapid shear displacement that occurs in high-velocity landslides. Professor K. Sassa and his colleagues at DPRI (Disaster Prevention Research Institute), Kyoto University, have worked to develop an undrained dynamic-loading ring-shear apparatus for this purpose. A series of different types of apparatus (DPRI-3, 4, 5, 6, 7) have been developed from 1992 to the present. This paper describes the development of this apparatus and its application to the study of earthquake-induced landslides and the latest landslide-triggered debris flow in Japan. Also, tests of the latest version (DPRI-7) with a transparent shear box for direct observation of the shear zone during a rapid shearing are described.     

Morphology and geometry of Valles Marineris landslides

The walls of the Valles Marineris canyons are affected by about 45 landslides. The study of these landslides provides a test of the hypothesis of processes having affected Martian wallslopes after their formation. The dynamics of Valles Marineris landslides are controversial : either the landslides are interpreted as large debris flows or as dry rock avalanches. Their morphology and their topography are basic parameters to understand their dynamics. From topographic MOLA data and remote sensing images acquired with different spatial resolutions (Viking, THEMIS, MOC), the 3D geometry of 45 landslides of Valles Marineris has been studied. The landslides have been classified in 3 geomorphologic classes from the topography of the landslide deposits: the “chaotic” landslides without well identified structures, the “structured deposit without debris aprons” landslides with tectonic structures and small roughness at the deposit front and the “structured deposit with debris aprons” which display circular normal faults at the back of the deposit and several debris aprons at the front of the landslide. The spatial distribution of the three morphological types is in relation with the confinement of the canyons. The initial volume and the total deposited volume were also measured to compute volume balances. The deposited volumes range from 50 to . All volume balances display a maximum deficit ranging from 5% to 70%. The landslides with the largest deficits take place within an enclosed-canyon (Hebes Chasma). Lacking material exportation, these deficits could be interpreted as reflecting the porosity of the landslide source. This fact is in agreement with the hypothesis of a karstic origin of these enclosed-canyons. The Valles Marineris landslides have large mobilities (length/vertical drop) ranging from 1.8 to 12 implying low coefficients of friction and so fluidization mechanisms. The possible filling up of the porosity by volatile could be compatible with the fluidization patterns of Valles Marineris landslides.