杭州市高温致灾因子危险性风险区划

利用杭州市各气象观测站和自动气象站多年气温资料,以及数理统计方法和Arc GIS空间分析技术,采用极端高温与高温日数作为高温致灾因子风险的主要评价指标,分析杭州市高温天气的气候特征,对杭州市高温灾害致灾因子危险性进行了区划。结果表明,杭州市高温天气灾害较为严重,常出现38.0℃以上的高温,40.0℃以上也不少见,最高达到42.9℃;高温日数较长,最长持续时间超过50 d。杭州市高温灾害危险性风险高值区大部分集中在杭州城区所在的东北部平原,包括上城区、下城区、拱墅区、江干区、滨江区、西湖区西南部、萧山区及余杭区大部。另外,富春江、分水江等沿江两岸,西南部的河谷、盆地以及中部地势较复杂的谷地、盆地等低海拔地区也处于高温危险性中高值区域;北部天目山、西北部昱岭及白际山、西南部千里岗山及龙门山脉高海拔地区均属于危险性风险低值区域。     

VARIATION AND CAUSES OF PERSISTENT DROUGHT EVENTS IN GUANGDONG PROVINCE

Variation characteristics of persistent drought events in Guangdong province are analyzed using 45-year(1961-2005) and 86-station observational precipitation data of Guangdong,and the causes of drought events are discussed from different angles(e.g.,atmospheric circulation,sea surface temperature) on the basis of global coverage datasets of sea surface temperature and atmospheric elements.It is found that the occurrence frequency of persistent drought events in Guangdong province is once every 26 months on average,and autumn-winter or winter-spring persistent drought events take up the majority.The persistent drought events possess large scale spatial characteristics.While the 1960s is the most frequent and strongest decade of drought events in the latter half of the 20th century,the occurrence is more frequent and the intensity is stronger in the first five years of the 21st century(2001-2005).This reflects the response of regional extreme climatic events in Guangdong to global climatic change.The atmospheric circulation,sea surface temperature,etc,appear to have different abnormal characteristics when drought events happen in different seasons.The results of this paper provide some good reference information for the drought forecast,especially for the dynamic interpretation of climatic model products.     

锋面滑升运动的物理机制

锋面滑升运动是形成锋面降水的重要原因,弄清锋面滑升运动的物理机制对锋面降水的预报是必要的。依据大气动力学原理,对锋面滑升运动的物理成因进行了研究。已知暖空气沿锋面的滑动与暖空气垂直于锋面的风速(u_w)和锋面移动速度(c)之差有关。当暖空气垂直于锋面的风速小于锋面的移动速度(u_wc)时,暖空气向上滑动;当暖空气垂直于锋面的风速大于锋面的移动速度(u_wc)时,暖空气向下滑动。因为锋面的移动速度小于锋后冷空气垂直于锋面的风速(cu_c),所以,暖空气沿锋面的滑动与锋区中垂直于锋面方向的风速的分布有关,当锋区中有(?)u/(?)u0时,暖空气必定向下滑动;暖空气若向上滑动,锋区中必为(?)u/(?)x0。本文依据大气动力学原理给出了锋面坡度公式,通过演绎该式,得到了分析锋区中(?)u/(?)x的公式,结果表明:(1)当锋面坡度增大时,大气沿锋面向上滑动,反之向下滑动。(2)锋面强度加强时,大气沿锋面向上滑动,反之向下滑动。(3)暖平流时上滑,冷平流时下滑。(4)当锋面上出现气旋式涡度增大时,大气沿锋面向上滑动,反之向下滑动。(5)当垂直于锋面方向的地转风沿锋面由下向上增大时,大气沿锋面向上滑动,反之向下滑动。     

Improvement of mid- to long-term runoff forecasting based on physical causes: application in Nenjiang basin,China

Abstract

An artificial neural network, mid- to long-term runoff forecasting model of the Nenjiang basin was established by deciding predictors using the physical analysis method, combined with long-term hydrological and meteorological information. The forecasting model was gradually improved while considering physical factors, such as the main flood season and non-flood season by stage, runoff sources and hydrological processes. The average relative errors in the simulation tests of the prediction model were 0.33 in the main flood season and 0.26 in the non-flood season, indicating that the prediction accuracy during the non-flood season was greater than that in the main flood season. Based on these standards, forecasting accuracy evaluation was conducted by comparing forecasting results with actual conditions: for 2001 to 2003 data, the pass rate of forecasting in the main flood season was 50%, while it was 93% in the non-flood season; for 2001–2010, the respective values were 45% and 72%. The accuracy of prediction was found to decrease as the length of record increases.

Editor D. Koutsoyiannis, Associate editor A. Viglione

Citation Li, H.-Y. Tian, L., Wu, Y., and Xie, M., 2013. Improvement of mid- to long-term runoff forecasting based on physical causes: application in Nenjiang basin, China. Hydrological Sciences Journal, 58 (7), 1414–1422.     

雅鲁藏布江流域土地沙漠化现状与成因初步研究——兼论人为因素在沙漠化中的作用

利用最新的普查数据,首次详尽分析了该区土地沙漠化的类型、面积、分布及危害,通过对其沙漠化影响因素及其相互关系的分析,辅以定量方法系统阐述了该区土地沙漠化的成因,并探讨了藏南河谷农牧区人为因素在沙漠化过程中的作用及其机理。     

徐州龟山汉墓病害及其产生原因分析

通过介绍徐州龟山汉墓的建筑特点及病害特征,分析了汉墓病害的产生原因,为治理病害的施工图设计及具体文物加固保护方案提供了极为有益的借鉴资料.     

江西兴国城岗矿区萤石矿地质特征及矿床成因探讨

城岗矿区处于欧亚大陆板块与滨西太平洋板块消减带内侧的华夏板块中的罗霄地体与武夷地体的结合部位,区域上受大余至兴国深大断裂控制。区内发现7条萤石矿体,长100~1100m,厚1~17.7m,矿石类型为石英-萤石型,易选。估算333+334类资源量矿石量2654.3kt,CaF_2 1438.9kt,平均品位53.6%。通过工作阐述了矿床的地质特征,分析了成矿条件和成矿机理,建立了成矿模式,对成因进行了探讨。对矿区进一步找矿提供了依据。     

同位素地球化学在峨眉山大火成岩省研究中的应用现状与进展

系统总结分析了峨眉山大火成岩省的同位素地球化学研究成果。总结前人研究资料中大量峨眉山大火成岩省（ELIP）中玄武岩和侵入体的同位素年龄数据,并结合生物地层学特征,确认我国西南峨眉山大火成岩省中的各个岩石单元的形成时代为251~263 Ma,其中基性-超基性侵入岩体形成于约259 Ma,而作为峨眉山大火成岩省主体的峨眉山玄武岩系形成于251~253 Ma。Sr-Nd、Re-Os、Lu-Hf及O同位素地球化学数据表明峨眉山大火成岩省的源区为地幔柱或者大陆岩石圈地幔(SCLM),其中峨眉山玄武岩与富含Fe-Ti氧化物基性侵入体的Sr-Nd同位素特征相似,具有与OIB相似的同位素性质;而含Cu-Ni硫化物的基性-超基性岩体的同位素特征接近地壳物质,可能与地壳混染作用有关。     

中国西北干旱环境的形成时代与成因探讨*

西北干旱环境的形成时代是我国古环境研究的重要问题。干旱环境的存在可据地层中风成沉积、风化沉积、水成沉积、古生物等信息综合确定。对塔里木、准噶尔、柴达木、河西走廊、陕甘宁等盆地的中、新生界干旱环境沉积记录分析表明,我国西北干旱沉积及其时代可上溯到晚侏罗世初期(约160Ma以来),其间可分为三大阶段:1)晚侏罗世至古近纪(约160~24Ma),以红色干旱沉积与亚热带干旱环境为主; 2)晚第三纪(约24.0~2.5Ma),以红色干旱沉积与亚热带干旱环境向灰、黄色干旱沉积与温带干旱环境逐渐过渡为特征;3)第四纪(约2.5Ma以来),以灰、黄色干旱沉积与温带干旱环境为主。干旱环境在晚侏罗世的大范围出现主要是侏罗纪全球气温回升、北亚热带北界北推引起的。相比可见,新近纪温带干旱环境的形成主要与古特提斯海关闭、青藏高原及盆地外围山脉的隆升等构造运动引起内陆盆地干旱效应的加强有关。进而推知,我国西北在新近纪出现的温带内陆干旱环境既是盆地外围高原、山脉隆升的重要直接结果,也是亚洲季风系统的重要直接形成因素。     

Changes in soil physical and chemical properties during reversal of desertification in Yanchi County of Ningxia Hui autonomous region,China

Using field surveys and laboratory analysis, soil physical and chemical properties were studied at a site exhibiting the reversal of desertification in Yanchi County of China’s Ningxia Hui autonomous region. The dominant soil particle size changed from coarse-fine sand to a combination of very fine sand and silt + clay, and corresponding levels of each soil nutrient increased. The content of coarse-fine sand (2–0.1 mm) was significantly and negatively correlated with soil nutrient contents, whereas nutrient contents were significantly and positively correlated with the contents of very fine sand (0.1–0.05 mm) and silt + clay (<0.05 mm). The increasingly fine soil texture and the nutrient enrichment both facilitated rehabilitation of desertified land. The silt + clay content contributed the most to the increasing soil nutrient contents, and thus appears to be the key factor in reversal of desertification. Soil nutrient concentrations in the bulk soil increased with increasing content of soil nutrients with different particle fractions, and there were significant positive correlations between them. The nutrients in all particle size classes jointly decided the effect of soil nutrient contents on the reversal process. Principal-components analysis (PCA) revealed that the soil quality tended to increase during the reversal process, and that nutrient factors were more significant than particle size (i.e., were the dominant factor that influenced soil quality). Available nutrients and soil organic matter (SOM) were the most important nutrient factors. Silt + clay were the most important particle factors.