岩体中热-水-力耦合模型的新进展

本文综述了岩五力学中热－水－力耦合模型的发展,特别介绍了国际合作项目DECOVAIEX在这一方向上的新进展。     

Regression model for generating time series of daily precipitation amounts for climate change impact studies

The precipitation amounts on wet days at De Bilt (the Netherlands) are linked to temperature and surface air pressure through advanced regression techniques. Temperature is chosen as a covariate to use the model for generating synthetic time series of daily precipitation in a CO₂ induced warmer climate. The precipitation-temperature dependence can partly be ascribed to the phenomenon that warmer air can contain more moisture. Spline functions are introduced to reproduce the non-monotonous change of the mean daily precipitation amount with temperature. Because the model is non-linear and the variance of the errors depends on the expected response, an iteratively reweighted least-squares technique is needed to estimate the regression coefficients. A representative rainfall sequence for the situation of a systematic temperature rise is obtained by multiplying the precipitation amounts in the observed record with a temperature dependent factor based on a fitted regression model. For a temperature change of 3°C (reasonable guess for a doubled CO₂ climate according to the present-day general circulation models) this results in an increase in the annual average amount of 9% (20% in winter and 4% in summer). An extended model with both temperature and surface air pressure is presented which makes it possible to study the additional effects of a potential systematic change in surface air pressure on precipitation.     

Lateral and topographic effects in geoelectric soundings

Several two-dimensional structures are modelled for vertical electrical soundings in arrays parallel and perpendicular to the strike of the structure. The models are a horst and a graben within a three-layer medium, a cliff over two layers, and heterogeneities around the electrodes. Apparent resistivity curves are shown for different model parameters and different distances to the two-dimensional structures. Some of the features on the shape of these curves are inflections that may be misinterpreted as fictitious layers, of slopes greater than 45°; some features are simply anomalous peaks. One-dimensional interpretation of a two-dimensional graben model has been performed, in order to show typical errors when 2D structures are interpreted as one-dimensional. A real case corresponding to a landfill near Barcelona and showing strong lateral and topographic effects is presented. This represents combined effects of the above theoretical 2D models.     

区域地下水资源优化管理模型研究

在分析晋、陕、蒙接壤地区水文地质条件的基础上，建立了区域地下水运动的数学模型；采用有限元法与非线性规划相结合，识别了模型的水文地质参数；根据能源基地内的工业布局及用水需求，建立了区域地下水最优分配模型；利用响应矩阵法求得了本区地下水最优方案。最后对最优化模型进行了灵敏度分析，证实了最优化方案的合理性     

ADVANCES IN REGIONAL CLIMATE MODELING SINCE 1990

Due to the close relationship between regional climate anomalies and social-economy andsociety development,climatologists worldwide paid great attention to the regional climateanomalies over a long period of time and the corresponding investigation of regional climatemodeling has made great progresses.Since 1990 the regional climate simulations have made a moresubstantial achievement.This paper will focus on the reliability and uncertainties of regionalclimate modeling by global climate models,the advances on regional climate modeling in the worldand the outlook of regional climate modeling.     

Conceptually-based shot noise modeling of streamflows at short time interval

A conceptual-stochastic approach to short time runoff data modelling is proposed, according to the aim of reproducing the hydrological aspects of the streamflow process and of preserving as much as possible the dynamics of the process itself. This latter task implies preservation of streamflow characteristics at higher scales of aggregation and, within a conceptual framework, involves compatibility with models proposed for the runoff process at those scales. At a daily time scale the watershed response to the effective rainfall is considered as deriving from the response of three linear reservoirs, respectively representing contributions to streamflows of large deep aquifers, with over-year response lag, of aquifers which run dry by the end of the dry season and of subsurface runoff. The surface runoff component is regarded as an uncorrelated point process. Considering the occurrences of effective rainfall events as generated by an independent Poisson process, the output of the linear system represents a conceptually-based multiple shot noise process. Model identification and parameter estimation are supported by information related to the aggregated runoff process, in agreement to the conceptual framework proposed, and this allows parameter parsimony, efficient estimation and effectiveness of the streamflow reproduction. Good performances emerged from the model application and testing made with reference to some daily runoff series from Italian basins.     

Forecasting petroleum discoveries in sparsely drilled areas: Nigeria and the North Sea

Decline function methods for projecting future discoveries generally capture the crowding effects of wildcat wells on the discovery rate. However, these methods do not accommodate easily situations where exploration areas and horizons are expanding. In this paper, a method is presented that uses a mapping algorithm for separating these often countervailing influences. The method is applied to Nigeria and the North Sea. For an amount of future drilling equivalent to past drilling (825 wildcat wells), future discoveries (in resources found) for Nigeria are expected to decline by 68% per well but still amount to 8.5 billion barrels of oil equivalent (BOE). Similarly, for the total North Sea for an equivalent amount and mix among areas of past drilling (1322 wildcat wells), future discoveries are expected to amount to 17.9 billion BOE, whereas the average discovery rate per well is expected to decline by 71%.     

Evaluating the risk of climate change to nuclear waste disposal

A hierarchy of models is being developed to represent the changes in climate that could occur in the next 10,000 years at proposed nuclear waste repository sites in the U.S. Three levels of modeling of the global aspects of climate change are included. At the broadest level a multitude of theoretical representations are being considered, most based upon the Milankovitch theory. A set of at least 150 situations will be examined, and those of concern for site stability will be screened for more thorough analysis at the next level of detail. The screening criteria include estimation of the probability of the event; the level of probability which must be considered (0.0001) requires use of the most detailed paleoclimatic records available. Uncertainty in the results will be evaluated by comparison of model reconstructions to the paleoclimatic record and by Monte Carlo analyses.This paper was presented at Emerging Concept, MGUS-87 Conference, Redwood City, California, 13–15 April 1987.