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过去150 年长三角地区的春季物候变化

利用中国历史日记中的长三角地区春季物候记录,重建了该地区1834 年以来的春季物候期变化序列,同时结合气温观测资料分析了该序列对温度变化的指示意义。主要结论有：(1) 1834-1893 年,长三角地区春季物候在波动中逐渐推迟,但19 世纪末起突然出现大幅提前;1900-1990 年以年代际波动为主要特征,1990-2010 年又再次出现大幅提前;1834 年以来,该地区春季物候最迟的年份为1893 年,最早的年份为2007 年,分别较1977-1996 年平均推迟27 天和提早17 天。(2) 长三角地区的春季物候期变化与该地区上年12 月-当年3 月及当年1-3 月气温变化的相关系数分别超过-0.75、-0.80,可很好地指示该地区的冬季与初春(特别是1-3 月) 气温变化;这为进一步集成多种代用资料重建历史时期的中国温度变化提供了重要数据基础和依据。     

基于水环境承载力的沁河流域系统优化调控

基于水环境承载力核算模型,提出流域系统优化调控方法,并应用于沁河流域。通过承载力核算模型计算出2015年和2020年流域水环境承载力,当系统动力学预测的2015年和2020年经济发展规模高于承载力时,通过约束条件中工业企业排放浓度、城镇生活污水收集率、水资源利用率、尾水回用率等4项调控指标进行敏感度分析,最终确定最优的经济发展。结果表明:沁河流域应该优先调控城镇生活污水收集率;2015年,执行工业污水排放二级标准,收集率须达到71.4%以上,优化后的经济规模阈值为475.6亿元;2020年,执行工业一级标准,城镇生活污水收集率须为78.4%以上,相应地经济规模阈值为816.0亿元。     

基于可达性与数据场的长三角经济区空间场能

空间场能是区域发展"龙头"借助区域联系通道带动外围地区发展的抽象表达,可有效刻画区域发展格局与空间差异。借助ArcGIS软件平台,采用栅格成本加权距离法、k阶数据场等模型,综合测度了长三角经济区区域可达性与空间场能,并揭示了该区域空间场能的空间格局与演变特征。研究表明:①2000年以来,长三角经济区中心城市取得了长足发展,且总体倾于均衡发展;②区域可达性条件不断改善,3 h时间圈的平均通达距离由2000年的81km提高到2008年的122 km;③区域空间场能显著增长且空间分异性显著,分布结构由单核“Z”字型向“多极”网络状形态转变;④长三角经济区空间场能分布格局可适度划分为高场能区、较高场能区、一般场能区、较低场能区、低场能区等5大类型,并呈现出圈层状特征与"两极分化"特征。     

社会网络视角下长三角城市旅游经济空间差异

以长三角16个城市为例,通过修正后的引力模型构建旅游经济联系网络,运用社会网络分析方法对网络进行定量分析,进一步对长三角旅游经济空间差异的原因进行分析。长三角城市旅游经济联系网络的密度为0.533,规模为128,直径为3,网络密度处于中等水平。上海（舟山、台州）在中心度指数、权力指数、结构洞水平、核心度等指标上得分处于优势（劣势）地位,位于整个网络的核心（边缘）。空间自相关分析表明,各城市旅游业空间聚类态势与网络特征呈现出很强的正相关性,各城市在网络中相对位置的优劣,对城市旅游经济的发展将产生重大影响。社会网络分析方法能够揭示区域旅游经济发展差异的内部机理,为研究区域旅游空间差异提供新的视角。     

辽河三角洲不同干湿气候区参考蒸散发敏感因子时空变化

根据辽河三角洲19个气象台站1961~2010年气象观测资料,采用Penman-Monteith参考蒸散发计算方法,分析辽河三角洲半湿润区、半干旱区以及滨海干湿过渡区3个气候亚区参考蒸散发对平均气温、风速、相对湿度和太阳辐射的敏感性及其时空分异。结果表明：在半干旱区,敏感系数由大到小依次是相对湿度、风速、太阳辐射和平均气温;在半湿润区和滨海干湿过渡区,敏感系数由大到小依次是相对湿度、太阳辐射、平均气温和风速。不同气候亚区参考蒸散发对气象因子的敏感系数具有较大的差异和变化趋势。     

基于MODIS/NDVI的新疆伊犁河谷植被变化

利用2000-2010年16 d合成的MODIS/[NDVI]数据,结合植被异常指数、趋势线分析和Hurst指数等分析方法,对新疆伊犁河谷植被覆盖的时空变化特征进行了分析。结果表明：（1） 伊犁河谷内植被覆盖随海拔增高而先增加后减小,最高植被覆盖区位于2 000～2 500 m的高程带;2000-2010年伊犁河谷各高程带内植被覆盖整体下降趋势明显,但海拔低于1 000 m的高程带除外。（2）受干湿环境影响,伊犁河谷全区平均被植异常指数最高值出现在降水最多的2002年,最低值出现在降水最少的2008年,但不同区域植被异常指数的变化存在较大差异。（3）伊犁河谷内植被覆盖增加和减小的区域分别占总面积的4.09%和19.34%,增加区域主要位于伊犁河两岸的平原区,减小区域主要位于乌孙山两端以及伊犁河谷周围海拔2 000 m左右的低山区域;变标度极差分析结果表明,伊犁河谷内植被覆盖年际变化呈现很强的持续性,未来一定时间内将保持现有变化趋势不变。     

Temporality of disasters: The politics of women's livelihoods ‘after’ the 2004 tsunami in Sri Lanka

The devastation caused by the 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami in Sri Lanka is represented as a ‘natural disaster’. Yet, the tsunami did not occur in a sociopolitical and historical vacuum. How people responded to the tsunami, the challenges of and attitudes to relocation and post‐tsunami livelihoods, were/are shaped by uneven development, social exclusion and ethnonationalist war. All these responses are embedded in structures of gender, caste, class, and ethnicity. The tsunami, thus, brought to the forefront preexisting inequalities, showing up complexities in the temporality of disasters. Drawn from fieldwork in two coastal areas in the Southern and Eastern provinces, this paper shows how gendered structures within the local political economy influenced the ways that institutional actors as well as the displaced communities and women initially devised livelihood strategies. These reactions show how place matters as much as preexisting gendered political economy conditions and reveal the complex ways in which women continue to mediate and negotiate everyday responses in the aftermath of a ‘natural’ disaster.     

Land-cover and land-use change in a Mediterranean landscape: A spatial analysis of driving forces integrating biophysical and human factors

This article develops a spatial analysis applied to examine the main driving forces of land-cover and land-use (LCLU) change in a Mediterranean region. Three different tools have been used in order to differentiate LCLU changes, driving forces and landscape dynamics. LCLU changes have been quantified with remote sensing techniques, driving forces have been analysed with multiple logistic regressions combining biophysical and human variables, whereas landscape dynamics have been quantified using different metrics. Results show the intensification of subsidised herbaceous crops on the coastal agricultural plain, the abandonment of olive trees and vineyards in the transitional area and forest restoration in the mountainous subregion.     

Classification of washover dynamics in barrier islands

This study systematically classifies washover dynamics with reference to coastal changes along the Ria Formosa barrier islands (Southern Portugal). Identification of washovers using a sequence of 11 sets of aerial photographs dated between 1947 and 2001 allowed a classification to be developed based on: (1) overwash evolution (increasing, decreasing, or constant overwash processes); (2) the mechanisms promoting washover formation (exceptional to infrequent oceanographic conditions, washout processes, structural erosion, inlet dynamics, and human interventions); and (3) the mechanisms promoting washover cessation (berm development, structural erosion, dune development, inlet dynamics, and human interventions). A total of 369 different washovers were observed along the Ria Formosa barriers during the study period, with 209 washovers being formed in various types of dune morphology and 303 being obliterated. The number of washovers was relatively stable from 1947 to 1972, and increased dramatically between 1972 and 1976 probably as a result of the development of immature inlet margins and downdrift starvation. From 1976 to 2001, washover occurrences declined and their spatial dimensions decreased, leading to a decrease in overwash activity over this time. Overall, the dominant formation mechanisms of washovers in the Ria Formosa were inlet dynamics (accounting for 57% of washovers formed) and structural erosion (20%), with human intervention mechanisms accounting for 12%. The cessation of washovers was dominated by dune development (33% of the washovers obliterated) followed by inlet dynamics (24%) and structural erosion (19%), while human intervention mechanisms accounted for 13%. The classification should be of use for the coastal management of barrier systems including the definition of overwash-prone areas and the determination of the relative importance of the mechanisms contributing to washover formation and cessation.