NCEP温度图像与天体引潮力附加构造应力结合作地震短临预测初探——以2003年7-8月3次西藏地震为例

利用美国国家环境预测中心NCEP全球再分析资料的温度图像结合天体引潮力附加构造应力,对2003年5月以来的国内MS≥6.0、国外MS≥7.0的地震作了统计分析。以2004年7月12日—2004年8月25日间西藏地区3次地震为例得出如下认识:NCEP温度异常图像可以较好地反映短临地震构造活动时空演变过程;天体引潮力附加构造应力对地应力处于临界状态的活动断层具有明显的诱发作用;利用NCEP温度异常图像与天体引潮力附加构造应力结合进行地震短临预测是具有良好应用前景的新思路;西藏的3次地震均发生在天体引潮力附加构造应力周期相同的相位上,即天体引潮力附加构造应力变化达到相对稳定的峰值的末端,而不是发生在天体引潮力附加构造应力最大时刻,同时2003—2004年在西藏发生的其它震例中,地震发生在上述周期相同的相位,因此认为应当对其它区域更长时间更多的震例作这方面的进一步研究     

南京城区夏季低层逆温对人体舒适状况影响初探

利用2000年夏季南京志区地面气象要素和低层探空资料，分析了该夏季南京城区早、晚低层逆温的频率、厚度和强度变化特征，着重从统计角度研究了逆温的厚度、强度与城区地面温度、相对湿度变化的关系及对人体舒适状况的影响。结果表明：低层逆温对城区地面温湿变化及其幅度影响较大，当07时有逆温层时，08时至14时的温度增加幅度变大，相对温度减小幅度也变大，人体不适指数增加幅度变大；当19时有逆温层时，20时至23时温度减小幅度变小，相对湿度增加幅度也变小，人体不适指数减小幅度变小，并通过相关分析建立了人体舒适度指数与逆温强度之间的回归方程。     

低温环境下含表面裂隙硬岩温度场及冻胀演化过程分析

寒区含表面裂隙硬岩与大气连通,易受外界低温环境引起裂隙内部水分凝结,造成裂隙带附近形成温度场突变,进而随水冰相变产生冻胀力,二者随着冻结活动处于动态演化之中,涉及到温度场、渗流场及应力场等多场问题。目前的研究大多依据数值模拟结果,描述裂隙岩体温度场、应力场分布特征及规律,考虑从基础理论解析计算角度,探究低温环境下裂隙岩体温度场、冻胀力演化规律鲜有报道。针对含表面裂隙硬岩在低温环境下发生的冻结现象,从传热学理论、相变理论、弹塑性力学及断裂力学理论等多角度出发,探讨随着冻结深入含表面裂隙硬岩内部温度场及冻胀荷载演化过程,提出对应解析表达式,引入多场耦合数值程序Comsol-Multiphysics进行数值模拟验证,结果表明,文中提出的温度场及冻胀荷载演化解析表达式与数值模拟结果具有较好吻合度,可满足对含表面裂隙半无限板模型温度场、应力场演化过程分析,对于裂隙岩体在低温环境下温度场、应力场演化及热-力耦合分析具有较好借鉴价值。     

Impact of climatic change on river discharge in the driest region of Poland

Abstract

Discharge in the Warta River in Poland has been analysed based on long series of measurements at the Gorzów Wielkopolski gauge station (covering the whole catchment area) and at Poznań (middle and upper catchment area), and the Note? River is characterized by the gauge station at Nowe Drezdenko. The annual mean discharge of the Warta River for the period 1981–2010 was equal to the average value for the last 163 years (209 m³ s^-1), and there was no significant change in comparison with the ratio of runoff in the summer and winter half-years. In the driest region of Poland, the climate has been described on the basis of precipitation and air temperature. The annual mean precipitation for 1981–2010 (544 mm) in the Warta River catchment area was the same as that for the period 1848–2010. The precipitation has been increasing in spring and winter, and decreasing in summer. There is a positive and very significant correlation (r = 0.705) between the annual discharge and annual precipitation totals. The annual mean air temperature has risen by 0.6°C between the periods 1848–1980 and 1981–2010.

Editor D. Koutsoyiannis

Citation Ilnicki, P., Farat, R., Górecki, K., and Lewandowski, P., 2014. Impact of climatic change on river discharge in the driest region of Poland. Hydrological Sciences Journal, 59 (6), 1117–1134. http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/02626667.2013.831979     

Characteristics and influencing factors of frontal upwelling in the Yellow Sea in summer

Frontal upwelling is an important phenomenon in summer in the Yellow Sea (YS) and plays an essential role in the distribution of nutrients and biological species. In this paper, a three-dimensional hydrodynamic model is applied to investigate the characteristics and influencing factors of frontal upwelling in the YS. The results show that the strength and distribution of frontal upwelling are largely dependent on the topography and bottom temperature fronts. The frontal upwelling in the YS is stronger and narrower near the eastern coast than near the western coast due to the steeper shelf slope. Moreover, external forcings, such as the meridional wind speed and air temperature in summer and the air temperature in the preceding winter and spring, have certain influences on the strength of frontal upwelling. An increase in air temperature in the previous winter and spring weakens the frontal upwelling in summer; in contrast, an increase in air temperature in summer strengthens the frontal upwelling. When the southerly wind in summer increases, the upwelling intensifies in the western YS and weakens in the eastern YS. The air temperature influences the strength of upwelling by changing the baroclinicity in the frontal region. Furthermore, the meridional wind speed in summer affects frontal upwelling via Ekman pumping.     

赤道东太平洋海温与长江下游地区降水异常的相关分析

本文采用最大熵谱分析方法揭示了赤道东太平洋海温和长江下游地区降水均存在3-4年和准两年的周期性振荡特征。且通过时滞相关分析发现两者均存在显著的相关关系,并以降水滞后海温约4个月的正相关最为明显。在此基础上利用一个多级数字滤波器对两者的逐月距平序列进行了高通、低通和带通滤波,并对两者在不同时间尺度上的滤波分量进行时滞相关分析,结果发现只是在2-4年的时间尺度上两者相关最为密切,并以降水滞后海温4-5月的正相关最为显著。     

桃仙机场雷雨转雨夹雪天气的分析

通过对桃仙机场仅有的两次雷雨转雨夹雪天气过程的分析，总结出此类天气的形势特点，并初步得出此类天气预报的着眼点，为秋季飞行提供可靠的预报保障。     

Essai de définition

Abstract

The apprehension and elaboration of hydrological maps in parallel with the development of hydrogeological maps render inevitable at first a clarification of terminology, besides an examination of the whole problem concerning the mapping of the data relating to water. It states theoretical (limits and validity of mapping in this property) and practical problems (methods, cooperation and distribution of work between using specialists and organizations).     

Organic pollutants associated with macromolecular soil organic matter: Mode of binding

A study of ether-linked moieties in macromolecular bound residues of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAH) generated in bioremediation experiments was performed using high temperature hydrolysis degradation with subsequent analysis of the products by GC-MS. This hydrolysis reaction was specifically designed to cleave ether bonds including relatively stable diarylether structures. Among the reaction products, aromatic alcohols representing typical microbiologically derived metabolites of PAH were found in addition to natural compounds. Thus, parts of the bound residues appeared to be linked within the macromolecular material by ether bonds. Model experiments with an oxidoreductase enzyme and aromatic alcohols indicate the formation of these ether bonds to be an enzyme-catalysed process.     

煤层气解吸的温度效应

为了探索温度对煤层气解吸效果的影响,通过对沁水南部寺河煤矿3号煤的吸附/解吸实验,经过数学分析,获得该煤层气吸附/解吸的数学式与等量吸附热表达式。分析认为：随着储层温度升高,饱和吸附量减小;解吸过程滞后于吸附作用的原因主要是非物理吸附常数 c值作用,随着储层温度增高,c值增大;降压解吸伴随吸热(温降),同时阻碍了持续解吸过程。通过提高储层温度来促进解吸过程,在理论上可行,工程中应该受到重视。