东川泥石流站开放以来的回顾与展望

本文扼要介绍了中国科学院东川泥石流观测研究站对外开放三年来,在泥石流观测试验研究和防灾减灾工作中的新进展,同时也简述了站设基金课题、国家基金课题和中外合作交流项目的进展情况,并对今后的观测研究工作提出了展望和建议。     

庐山羊角岭红色泥砾泥石流成因质疑——与施雅风、邓养鑫商榷

作者根据庐山羊角岭红色泥砾的岩性特征,从地形和堆积物的宏观和微观特征进行分析研究,得出庐山有第四纪冰川。     

Effects of strong ground motion on the susceptibility of gully type debris flows

Typhoon Herb in 1996 caused widespread debris flows in central Taiwan. The 7.3 Chi-Chi earthquake on September 21, 1999, which also took place in central Taiwan, induced many landslides in the region. These landslides turned into debris flows when Typhoon Toraji struck Taiwan in 2001. This research selects three regions which suffered a ground motion class of 5, 6, and 7 on the Richter scale during the Chi-Chi earthquake as study areas. Air photos from 1997 and 2001 of these regions are used to map the gully-type debris flows that took place after Typhoons Herb and Toraji, respectively. The gullies adjacent to the debris flow, but without a trace of debris flows, are also mapped as the non-debris flow data. The topography, hydrogeology, and rainfall factors – where debris flow occurred and in which there was no occurrence of debris flows in these gullies were retrieved from DTM, geological maps, and iso-countour maps, and of rainfall through GIS processing. These characteristic are introduced into a probabilistic neural network to build a predicting model for the probability of the occurrence of debris flows. Three series of cross analyses are conducted to compare the probability of the occurrence of debris flows of the same dataset predicted by different prediction models. The results reveal that the susceptibility of debris flows was elevated after the Chi-Chi earthquake struck. The upsurge of susceptibility was more obvious for the regions that received a higher class of ground motion.     

Detecting protoplanets with ALMA

Theoretical investigations show that planet-disk interactions cause structures in circumstellar disks, which are usually much larger in size than the planet itself and thus more easily detectable. The specific result of planet-disk interactions depends on the evolutionary stage of the disk. Exemplary signatures of planets embedded in disks are gaps and spiral density waves in the case of young, gas-rich protoplanetary disks and characteristic asymmetric density patterns in debris disks. Numerical simulations convincingly demonstrate that high-resolution imaging performed with observational facilities which are already available or will become available in the near future will allow to trace these “fingerprints” of planets in protoplanetary and debris disks. These observations will provide a deep insight into specific phases of the formation and early evolution of planets in circumstellar disks. In this context, the Atacama Large Millimeter Array (ALMA) will play a crucial role by allowing to trace features in disks which are indicative for various stages of the formation and early evolution of planets in circumstellar disks.     

基于熵权-正态云模型的泥石流灾害易发性评价

近年来,由于极端天气事件频发和工程建设活动加剧,泥石流灾害对人类的威胁愈加严峻。因此,在综合分析泥石流灾害发育特征及形成机理的基础上,进行泥石流灾害易发性评价对防灾减灾工程活动具有指导意义。选取沟谷岸坡坡度、沟床纵坡比降、植被覆盖率、单位面积固体物源储量、汇水面积、雨季降雨量建立评价指标体系,采用熵权法确定评价指标权重,将泥石流灾害易发性分为高易发、中易发、低易发和不易发四级,建立基于正态云模型的泥石流灾害易发性评价方法,并以西秦岭地区5条泥石流沟为例验证了该评价模型的合理性。进一步将该模型用于陕西吴堡井沟泥石流灾害易发性评价,结果表明井沟泥石流具有中易发性,评价结果与实际相符。     

VOLUMETRIC SEDIMENT CONCENTRATION IN DEBRIS FLOWS

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Threshold criterion for debris flow initiation in seasonal gullies

A series of flume experiments were done to investigate the effect of grain composition on the critical gradient and discharge of debris flows initiated in seasonal gullies. The results indicated that the critical gradient and discharge for debris flow initiation decrease initially, and then increase as the mass content of fine particles (<2 mm) increases. As the mass content of fine particles increases, the angle of repose, permeability of widely graded gravel soils, and the incipient motion conditions of the coarse grains in non-uniform sediments decrease at first, and then increase. The mass content of fine particles of all inflection points is the same. The theoretical model based on the combination of hydrodynamic force and shear stress is more applicable to the prediction of the critical gradient for debris flow initiation. The critical discharge model considering the effect of non-homogeneity of the soil and the size of coarse and fine grains provides a more accurate prediction of debris flow initiation than other models based on the mean diameter.     

鹅掌河泥石流对四川邛海影响的初步研究

沉积作用在湖泊的演化和消亡过程中至关重要,洪水泥石流的淤积作用对我国西南地区广泛分布的构造断陷湖泊是一个普遍的环境问题．通过调查鹅掌河泥石流发育背景,人类的活动对泥沙进入邛海的影响和对比1988年与2003 年邛海水下地形图得出:在近30年的时间内,鹅掌河洪水和泥石流改沿固定河堤流入邛海,在湖底形成浊流,将更大量泥沙带到湖中．浊流在鹅掌河河口的水下扇陡坡上形成一水下冲沟,在湖底沉积区形成一条长2 km的水下堤．计算发现, 鹅掌河泥石流带入邛海的泥沙远大于一般土壤侵蚀产沙量,其中以1996,1997和1998三年泥石流输入的泥沙量最多．鹅掌河洪水和泥石流对邛海的影响以及水下地形、湖泊基本特征和湖泊环境的变化,应引起人们对邛海保护的高度关注．     

A laboratory study on groundwater quality and mass movement occurrence

In this study, soil samples collected from the sides of two streams with high debris flow potential at Shenmu and Fengchiou village in Nantou County, Taiwan, were used for seepage tank tests in the laboratory. While the tests were being conducted, observations were made to investigate the relationships among displacement of the slope, quality of the seepage water and occurrence of mass movement. The results showed that according to the change rate, displacement could be divided into two stages, namely, the initial failure displacement stage and primary failure displacement stage. While the displacement of the slope was in primary failure displacement stages, the probability of slope failure became much higher. Before general slope failure, electrical conductivity (EC) and sulfate ion (SO₄ ²⁻) concentration of the seepage water increased significantly. The time when EC of the seepage water started to increase rapidly was much earlier than that when displacement of the slope started to increase significantly. Therefore, from the hazard mitigation view, there will be a longer time for response if EC of the seepage water was monitored.     

Landslide and basin self-organized criticality in the Lushan Hot Spring area

Defining a basin under a critical state(or a self-organized criticality) that has the potential to initiate landslides,debris flows,and subsequent sediment disasters,is a key issue for disaster prevention.The Lushan Hot Spring area in Nantou County,Taiwan,suffered serious sediment disasters after typhoons Sinlaku and Jangmi in 2008,and following Typhoon Morakot in 2009.The basin’s internal slope instability after the typhoons brought rain was examined using the landslide frequency-area distribution.The critical state indices attributed to landslide frequency-area distribution are discussed and the marginally unstable characteristics of the study area indicated.The landslides were interpreted from Spot 5 images before and after disastrous events.The results of the analysis show that the power-law landslide frequency-area curves in the basin for different rainfall-induced events tend to coincide with a single line.The temporal trend of the rainfallinduced landslide frequency-area distribution shows 1/f noise and scale invariance.A trend exists for landslide frequency-area distribution in log-log space for larger landslides controlled by the historical maximum accumulated rainfall brought by typhoons.The unstable state of the basin,including landslides,breached dams,and debris flows,are parts of the basin’s self-organizing processes.The critical state of landslide frequency-area distribution could be estimated by a critical exponent of 1.0.The distribution could be used for future estimation of the potential landslide magnitude for disaster mitigation and to identify the current state of a basin for management.