参数优化LSSVM的巷道围岩松动圈预测研究

最小二乘支持向量机方法(LSSVM)在处理小样本、高维数、非线性的问题时,具有求解速度快、易于描述非线性关系的优良特性。但是,该方法得到的模型拟合精度和泛化能力依赖于其相关参数,因此,提出基于粒子群优化算法(PSO)的LSSVM参数优选方法。最后,用该模型对巷道围岩松动圈进行了预测研究。结果表明,PSO优化的LSSVM模型具有收敛速度快、计算精度高的特点,说明该模型是合理、有效的。     

Turbidite bed thickness distributions: methods and pitfalls of analysis and modelling

Turbidite bed thickness distributions are often interpreted in terms of power laws, even when there are significant departures from a single straight line on a log–log exceedence probability plot. Alternatively, these distributions have been described by a lognormal mixture model. Statistical methods used to analyse and distinguish the two models (power law and lognormal mixture) are presented here. In addition, the shortcomings of some frequently applied techniques are discussed, using a new data set from the Tarcău Sandstone of the East Carpathians, Romania, and published data from the Marnoso‐Arenacea Formation of Italy. Log–log exceedence plots and least squares fitting by themselves are inappropriate tools for the analysis of bed thickness distributions; they must be accompanied by the assessment of other types of diagrams (cumulative probability, histogram of log‐transformed values, q–q plots) and the use of a measure of goodness‐of‐fit other than R², such as the chi‐square or the Kolmogorov–Smirnov statistics. When interpreting data that do not follow a single straight line on a log–log exceedence plot, it is important to take into account that ‘segmented’ power laws are not simple mixtures of power law populations with arbitrary parameters. Although a simple model of flow confinement does result in segmented plots at the centre of a basin, the segmented shape of the exceedence curve breaks down as the sampling location moves away from the basin centre. The lognormal mixture model is a sedimentologically intuitive alternative to the power law distribution. The expectation–maximization algorithm can be used to estimate the parameters and thus to model lognormal bed thickness mixtures. Taking into account these observations, the bed thickness data from the Tarcău Sandstone are best described by a lognormal mixture model with two components. Compared with the Marnoso‐Arenacea Formation, in which bed thicknesses of thin beds have a larger variability than thicknesses of the thicker beds, the thinner‐bedded population of the Tarcău Sandstone has a lower variability than the thicker‐bedded population. Such differences might reflect contrasting depositional settings, such as the difference between channel levées and basin plains.     

福建南安市石井—东田地区土壤厚度空间分布特征及主要影响因素

在福建省南安市石井—东田地区开展了土壤垂向剖面野外地质调查,根据调查结果制作了南安市石井—东田地区土壤厚度空间分布图,探讨了该区土壤厚度空间分布特征及主要影响因素。石井—东田地区土壤厚度背景值以20 cm和15 cm的土壤层为主,其次为土壤厚度背景值为35 cm和10 cm的土壤层。福建沿海地区土壤厚度空间变异的主要影响因素为土壤成因和地面坡度。沉积环境越稳定、人为或自然干扰因素越小的区域,土壤层越厚;土壤厚度与地面坡度呈负相关,地面坡度越陡,土壤层越薄。     

被断裂破坏的盖层封闭能力评价方法及其应用

断层对盖层的破坏主要表现为两个方面:一是减小了盖层的连续封盖面积,二是减小了盖层的厚度。盖层被断层破坏的主要影响因素有断层的断距、倾角和盖层厚度。通过对影响因素研究,提出了盖层有效断接厚度的新概念和计算方法。根据我国部分与断层有关的大-中型气田气柱高度资料,发现了有效断接厚度与所能封闭的最大气柱高度的对数线性关系,并由此提出了评价被断层破坏的盖层封闭能力的新方法。通过对库车坳陷库姆格列木群膏泥岩盖层的应用研究,所得结论与勘探实践完全吻合,证明所提出的评价方法是可行的。     

Asymmetry in oceanic crustal structure of the South China Sea basin and its implications on mantle geodynamics

ABSTRACT

We investigated the oceanic crustal structure and lithospheric dynamics of the South China Sea (SCS) basin through a comprehensive analysis of residual gravity anomaly and bathymetry combined with seismic constraints and interpretation from geodynamic modelling. We first calculated the residual mantle Bouguer anomaly (RMBA) of the oceanic crustal regions of the SCS by removing from free-air gravity anomaly the predicted gravitational attractions of water-sediment, sediment-crust, and crust-mantle interfaces, as well as the effects of lithospheric plate cooling, using the latest crustal age constraints including IODP Expedition 349 and recent deep-tow magnetic surveys. We then calculated models of the gravity-derived crustal thickness and calibrated them using the available seismic refraction profiles of the SCS. The gravity-derived crustal thickness models correlate positively with seismically determined crustal thickness values. Our analysis revealed that the isochron-averaged RMBA are consistently more negative over the northern flank of the SCS basin than the southern conjugate for magnetic anomaly chrons C8n (~25.18 Ma) to C5Dn (~17.38 Ma), implying warmer mantle and/or thicker crust over much of the northern flank. Computational geodynamic modelling yielded the following interpretations: (1) Models of asymmetric and variable spreading rates based on the relatively high-resolution deep-tow magnetic analysis would predict alternating thicker and thinner crust at the northern flank than the southern conjugate, which is inconsistent with the observed systematically thicker crust on the northern flank. (2) Models of episodic southward ridge jumps could reproduce the observed N-S asymmetry, but only for crustal age of 23.6–20 Ma. (3) Southward migration of the SCS ridge axis would predict slightly thinner crust at the northern flank, which is inconsistent with the observations. (4) Models of higher mantle temperatures of up to 25–50°C or >2% less depleted mantle sources on the northern flank could produce large enough anomalies to explain the observed N-S asymmetries.     

渭河盆地地温场分布规律及其控制因素

本文以渭河盆地地温场为研究对象,在收集补充新地热井资料及分析测试样品的基础上,通过盆地深部结构、构造特征、地温场特征、热储层特征、地热资源量等分析,建立了盆地不同岩性岩石热导率与深度关系图版,确定了盆地地温场变化规律及地热田控制因素,提出了渭河盆地地热田形成模式。评价了盆地地热资源有利区,为盆地后续的开发利用提供了理论支持。研究认为渭河盆地热地温梯度分布在2.34～5.85℃/100m之间,平均地温梯度为3.50℃/100m,代表性大地热流68.33mw/m²,地温梯度及不同深度地层温度具有东高西低、南高北低的特点。热导率总体上具有随深度的增加,逐渐增大的规律,热导率随深度增加主要受压实程度增强控制。相同深度条件下泥岩热导率最低,砂岩热导率居中、白云岩热导率最高。渭河盆地主要为层状地热田,盆地内地热通过热传导及热对流两种方式进行传递,以热传导为主。渭河盆地地热资源丰富,热储层可分为三种类型:①新生界砂岩孔隙型;②下古生界碳酸盐岩岩溶型;③断裂型。渭河盆地地热资源有利区主要分布于西安凹陷、固市凹陷。盆地地温场及地热田分布与莫霍面、软流圈上隆、岩石圈厚度减薄的深部背景...     

超厚煤层分布与成因模式

煤厚的分级主要是从煤炭开采的角度来确定的,大于8m的厚煤层一概以巨厚煤层来称之。世界上,煤层总厚最大的是澳大利亚的吉普斯兰盆地,总厚达到700多米;加拿大哈溪煤田二号露天区则为单层煤厚最大的矿区,煤厚达510m;中国内蒙古自治区胜利煤田胜利东二号露天煤矿,单层（6煤层）厚达244.7m,总煤厚达320.65m。从沉积、层序地层与构造诸角度出发,依据现代泥炭堆积与阴沉木堆积等现象进行厚煤层的成因研究,对异地成煤及一些超厚煤层的成因模式进行了介绍和初步评价。     

三维地震属性参数在煤层厚度预测中的应用

依托“西部煤炭资源高精度三维地震勘探技术”项目工程,对晋城某矿南翼大巷东南区5m×5m×1ms的三维地震数据体,采用三维地震属性参数预测煤层厚度及其变化规律：沿3煤层、15煤层10ms时窗提取地震属性42种,根据钻孔资料,计算出煤厚与地震属性相关系数;从中优选出相关系数大于0．35的地震属性,其中3煤层9个、15煤层10个;然后进行地震属性互相关分析,优选出与3煤、15煤层厚度相关系数较大的4种属性,建立预测煤厚的BP神经网络模型,分别选取3煤层12个、15煤层4个实测数据作为学习训练和测试样本,以钻孔地震属性作为学习样本,对网络进行训练,最终获得全区煤层厚度。经与预留钻孔成果资料对比,预测精度较高,结果可用。     

Crust restoration for the western Lachlan Orogen using the strain-reversal,area-balancing technique: implications for crustal components and original thicknesses

Strain reversal of structural/stratigraphic profiles at different scales in the western Lachlan Orogen provides a perspective on original crustal thickness estimates, the former depositional basin width of the proto-western Lachlan Orogen, the original sedimentary-fan thickness, and the possible length extent of lower crust lost by subduction. Retrodeformation using strain-reversal techniques allows basin reconstruction giving an original width of the western Lachlan Orogen basin receptor of between 800 km (minimum) and ～1150 km (maximum), depending on the amount of stratal duplication allowed in the turbidites. Crude area balancing of the regional cross-section, adding in sectional volume lost by erosion and assuming strain compatibility between the upper and lower crust, suggests that the predeformation crustal thickness ranges between 15 km and ～21 km, with a lower crustal thickness (oceanic lithosphere) of ～9 km and a turbidite fan thickness of ～6 km (minimum) and ～12 km (maximum allowable), respectively. Disparity between the calculated fan thickness and that derived from measured stratigraphic sections adjusted for strain (～6 km) indicates that some form of crustal stacking must be important in structural thickening of the turbidite crustal component. By varying shortening due to fault stacking, mass balance dictates the mismatch of the upper crustal (uc) and lower crustal (lc) retrodeformed lengths, and therefore provides an estimate of lower crustal loss by subduction. End members range from: (i) a 12 km-thick fan without fault duplication, a basin width of ～800 km where uc = lc giving no lower crustal loss by subduction; to (ii) a ～6 km fan, requiring duplication by faulting, a basin of ～1150 km where uc > lc, and ～360 km of lower crust length (～30%) lost by subduction. This suggests that the total thickness of underplated igneous material in the western Lachlan Orogen is low, probably < ～2 km.     

自然电位视有效厚度预测及在油田开发中的应用

油气藏在地表产生的自然电位属于静位场, 其强度与场源量成正比, 与距离场源的半径成反比.理论研究与实践结果表明, 自然电位异常可以指示含油砂体, 圈定油气富集区.在储层套数较少的含油区可以用电位强度与视有效厚度的线性关系来预测油层厚度.卫星油田储层套数较少, 其视有效厚度可用线性方程h=-0.19x+0.74来表征, 为配合下一轮滚动开发工作, 在地质研究的基础上, 在地质研究难度较大的卫102、卫262、卫20地区应用自然电位预测有效厚度, 达到优选井位提高钻井成功率的目标.