Bayesian estimation of seismic hazard for two sites in Switzerland

Seismic hazard analysis is based on data and models, which both are imprecise and uncertain. Especially the interpretation of historical information into earthquake parameters, e.g. earthquake size and location, yields ambiguous and imprecise data. Models based on probability distributions have been developed in order to quantify and represent these uncertainties. Nevertheless, the majority of the procedures applied in seismic hazard assessment do not take into account these uncertainties, nor do they show the variance of the results. Therefore, a procedure based on Bayesian statistics was developed to estimate return periods for different ground motion intensities (MSK scale).Bayesian techniques provide a mathematical model to estimate the distribution of random variables in presence of uncertainties. The developed method estimates the probability distribution of the number of occurrences in a Poisson process described by the parameter . The input data are the historical occurrences of intensities for a particular site, represented by a discrete probability distribution for each earthquake. The calculation of these historical occurrences requires a careful preparation of all input parameters, i.e. a modelling of their uncertainties. The obtained results show that the variance of the recurrence rate is smaller in regions with higher seismic activity than in less active regions. It can also be demonstrated that long return periods cannot be estimated with confidence, because the time period of observation is too short. This indicates that the long return periods obtained by seismic source methods only reflects the delineated seismic sources and the chosen earthquake size distribution law.     

清代地理学家魏源及其《海国图志》──纪念魏源诞生200周年

本文阐述我国清代中期思想家、地理学家魏源的思想及共《海国图志》的特点及历史意义。     

《干旱区地理》的引文统计分析

本文使用文献计量学中的引文分析方法,以《干旱区地理》为调查样本进行了统计分析。《干旱地理》１９８５－１９９４年共版４３期,刊登论文５５８篇,其中附有引文的论文４３６篇,引文２７６６条。     

黄河影响下开封城市的历史演变

河流对城市的形成和发展起着重要的作用,古人形象地把其比喻为“城市之血脉”。文章从不同的历史时期黄河及其分支对开封城市演变的影响进行分析,得出黄河与开封城市的关系存在着利与害的统一。开封城市的历史发展,即得益于黄河充足的水源,又受害于其频繁的决溢、泛滥、改道。因此,要采用先进的科学技术对黄河进行综合治理开发,使其恢复它应有的美好环境,更好地造福于人民。     

War and the commons: Assessing the changing politics of violence, access and entitlements in Sri Lanka

There are two antagonistic, but equally influential traditions in the study of the nexus between resource use and violent conflict. One works through a Malthusian frame linking resource scarcity with violence, the other school of thought establishes a nexus between resource abundance and the incentives to use violence for rent monopolisation in a political economy of war or markets of violence. The tacit essentialism inherent in both schools of thought has increasingly come under critical scrutiny by geographers and anthropologists. To escape such essentialism requires a more detailed study of the dynamism of the political economy of (civil) war and its spatial dynamics, the political geographies of violence. In this paper, we study endowments and entitlements of people depending on common-pool or open-access resources in war-affected areas of Sri Lanka. Rural spaces in the war-affected areas became both a strategic retreat for fighters and an important common-pool resource on which a large part of the rural populace depended for their survival. Our research illustrates how the political geographies of war affect access regimes and entitlements to common-pool resources and thereby confine the livelihood opportunities of resource users. These dynamics of the political economy of war cross different scales and go beyond simple place-based struggles, for they are rooted in broader spatial dynamics of warfare creating place-space tensions in the sense that spatial dynamics of military control impinge changing access regimes upon specific places.     

Increasing critical sensitivity of the Load/Unload Response Ratio before large earthquakes with identified stress accumulation pattern

The Load/Unload Response Ratio (LURR) method is proposed for short-to-intermediate-term earthquake prediction [Yin, X.C., Chen, X.Z., Song, Z.P., Yin, C., 1995. A New Approach to Earthquake Prediction — The Load/Unload Response Ratio (LURR) Theory, Pure Appl. Geophys., 145, 701–715]. This method is based on measuring the ratio between Benioff strains released during the time periods of loading and unloading, corresponding to the Coulomb Failure Stress change induced by Earth tides on optimally oriented faults. According to the method, the LURR time series usually climb to an anomalously high peak prior to occurrence of a large earthquake. Previous studies have indicated that the size of critical seismogenic region selected for LURR measurements has great influence on the evaluation of LURR. In this study, we replace the circular region usually adopted in LURR practice with an area within which the tectonic stress change would mostly affect the Coulomb stress on a potential seismogenic fault of a future event. The Coulomb stress change before a hypothetical earthquake is calculated based on a simple back-slip dislocation model of the event. This new algorithm, by combining the LURR method with our choice of identified area with increased Coulomb stress, is devised to improve the sensitivity of LURR to measure criticality of stress accumulation before a large earthquake. Retrospective tests of this algorithm on four large earthquakes occurred in California over the last two decades show remarkable enhancement of the LURR precursory anomalies. For some strong events of lesser magnitudes occurred in the same neighborhoods and during the same time periods, significant anomalies are found if circular areas are used, and are not found if increased Coulomb stress areas are used for LURR data selection. The unique feature of this algorithm may provide stronger constraints on forecasts of the size and location of future large events.     

中国古代常规日食记录的整理分析

收集并分析了公元前8世纪到公元15世纪的中国古代密集、简略而公式化的日食记录。基于这些记录整理成一个包括938条日食记录的计算机可读形式的“常规日食记录表”。该表给出每次记录的原日期、公历日期、当时首都、所属朝代以及一部分记录所载的进一步详情。对该表的构成作了介绍,并对这些历史记录进行了初步的分析和归纳。     

湘阴县氏族移民地理研究（1211735年）

历史人口迁移是历史时期区域人地关系演变的最直接的动力。通过对121¹375年间湘阴县外来氏族移民过程与空间分布的分析,发现:他们无论是直接迁入还是辗转迁入,绝大多数都是为了土地和生存而来;67.2%的氏族祖籍江西,地缘上的亲和力和血缘上的凝聚力导致了氏族移民迁出地的邻近性和入居地的集聚性;69.6%的外来氏族在明代迁入,后唐同光年间,元末明初,明末清初为三个氏族移民高峰期;不同时期有着不同的氏族移民来源地,不同时期的氏族移民入居到不同的地理空间。随着时间的推移,湘阴县氏族移民入居地从丘陵平原向河湖滩地拓展的演变,反映了湘阴县域乃至整个洞庭湖区从丘陵到平原再到湖区的区域开发过程。     

Placing sexuality in health policies: feminist geographies and public health nursing

Despite the increasing public profile of same-sex issues, health policies are often shaped by heteronormative assumptions. The health concerns of lesbian, gay, bisexual, transsexual/transgender, two-spirit, intersex, queer and questioning (LGBTTTIQQ) people are complex and require broadening from an often exclusively sexual health and risk focus to a more holistic approach. In this context, this paper illustrates how a critical feminist geography of health, with its focus on the mutual construction of gender relations, space and place, potentially enhances and extends current understandings of public health policy and practice. Moreover, the use of a policy lens foregrounding gender and other power relations suggests that feminist research and coalitions facilitate participatory processes that address “the politics of discourse.” In particular, public health nursing practice can enhance the construction of spaces of resistance that challenge heteronormative discourse through research strategies focused on sexual minority communities’ health experiences and their visions for supportive care. In this respect, two strategies consistent with public health priorities to increase knowledge and participate in alliances are described. Ethnographic research with childbearing lesbians demonstrates that attention to institutional dynamics that foster safe spaces can facilitate access to public health services. Public health nurses’ involvement in community coalitions can enhance dissemination of community knowledges. The implications for gender inclusive and place-sensitive public health nursing practice include the development of sensitive educators, meaningful educational curriculum and related program planning, explicit policies, community partnerships and political leadership in institutional and research venues.     

The political geography of religion: historical state-church relations in Europe and recent challenges

Historical processes of state formation and nation building are crucial for an understanding of the geography of religions and churches in Europe. Each country has developed its own model of state-church relations, giving rise to a ‘bewildering variety’ as Grace Davie aptly remarks. The aim of this paper is to bring some order to this variety by developing a framework for the comparative study of church-state relations based on Stein Rokkan’s famous conceptual map and recent extensions of it to Central and Eastern Europe by John Madeley. According to that framework Europe has been divided into three mono-confessional (Roman Catholic, Lutheran, and Eastern Orthodox) blocs and two multi-confessional culture belts from Northwest to Southeast, and from Northeast to Southeast. This historical pattern has been challenged by secularisation, which started with the Enlightenment and the French Revolution (Western Europe) and the Russian Revolution (Eastern Europe until the velvet revolutions of 1989/1991) and then became widespread after the ‘cultural revolutions’ of the 1960s. A second challenge has to do with globalisation and its consequences, such as massive immigration and the rise of immigrant religions, and in general deterritorialisation, which means the disembeddedness of religion from its national territory. A third challenge concerns reterritorialisation at other (supranational, regional, transnational, and local) scales, of which the new territorial order of the European Union seems to be the most important. Finally, this paper serves as an introduction to the case studies on church-state relations in this special issue.