鄂尔多斯盆地姬塬地区长6油层组物源区分析

物源分析是我们研究沉积体系和岩相古地理格局的前提和基础,在一定程度也是描述微相和砂体展布的总体格局,以及对砂体进行预测和评价的依据。晚三叠世延长期鄂尔多斯盆地周缘存在多个古陆,包括北部的阴山古陆、西北缘的阿拉善古陆、南部的祁连—秦岭古陆及西南的陇西古陆等,它们都是盆地碎屑沉积物的主要供给源。长6沉积期,姬塬地区处于鄂尔多斯盆地偏西部地区,进行物源分析尤其是指出主要物源方向对沉积相及砂体展布规律研究都有重要意义。通过碎屑组分分析、重矿物分析、岩屑组分分析、阴极发光分析、稀土元素分析,以及古盐度恢复等研究方法,发现研究区存在北东方向主要物源区和北西方向次要物源区,同时也存在西南方向的物源供给。     

Hypocenter migration of fluid-induced earthquake swarms in the Tjörnes Fracture Zone (North Iceland)

The Tjörnes Fracture Zone separates Iceland's North Volcanic Zone from Kolbeinsey-Ridge (Greenland-Sea). Seismicity mainly occurs in swarms, often 100 and more per day, with similar waveforms and frequently offshore.We analysed three earthquake swarms between June and September 2004, recorded by 35 stations, i.e. the permanent Icelandic SIL network and a temporary setup of land and ocean-bottom-seismometers, and 5 swarms of the years 1994-1997 only using the sparser SIL network. Events occurring in the same swarm often show similar waveforms at the same station. We cross-correlated these time series by using a new approach of three component cross-correlation in order to relocate the hypocenters relative within the swarms and to precisely determine the direction and velocity of migration. Our method delivered good relocations with small spatial and temporal errors. This allows the interpretation and characterisation of the observed earthquake swarms. We try to classify observed migration velocities by comparing them to typical fluid- and crack-propagation velocities and determine focal-mechanisms and orientation of the best fitting plane through the hypocenter distribution.We separate the investigated events into two types of earthquake swarms, supposedly dike-induced and hydrothermally- or gas-induced swarms, by pointing out typical characteristics of both types and by comparing them to similar events of other volcanic regions. Based on different migration velocities, we will discuss possible mechanisms and their triggers of all single clusters within a swarm. Hypothetic models will be established, trying to explain the processes during the swarm episodes and to derive possible pre-eruptive patterns from the character of seismicity.     

鄂尔多斯盆地耿湾地区长6段古盐度恢复与古环境分析

应用B,sr,Rb,Sr/Ba比值,Rb/K比值和K Na质量分数等微量元素地球化学方法并结合粘土矿物X衍射分析对鄂尔多斯盆地耿湾地区长6古盐度进行综合判别,认为长6期古水介质盐度为O.48‰～4.43‰,平均值为1.87‰,属于淡水-微咸水环境,局部为半咸水环境,且自长63沉积期至长61沉积期湖盆水体是逐渐变成的;微成化的湖水介质和封闭还原的深水环境既有利于优质烃源岩的发育,又能促使砂体早期环边绿泥石胶结形成抗压实-压溶组构,有利于原生粒间孔的保存而对储层发育非常有利;根据长6古盐度定量计算确定O.5‰古盐度等值线是淡水河流发育区与微成水湖盆分界的古湖岸线位置,并划分出淡水、微成水和半成水3个古盐度平面分区,为预测岩性地层油藏有利发育区带提供了重要依据.     

The Regularized WSM6 Microphysical Scheme and Its Validation in WRF 4D-Var

A cold cloud assimilation scheme was developed that fully considers the water substances, i.e., water vapor, cloud water, rain, ice, snow, and graupel, based on the single-moment WSM6 microphysical scheme and four-dimensional variational(4D-Var) data assimilation in the Weather Research and Forecasting data assimilation(WRFDA) system. The verification of the regularized WSM6 and its tangent linearity model(TLM) and adjoint mode model(ADM) was proven successful. Two groups of single observation a...     

On the long-term memory characteristic in land surface air temperatures: How well do CMIP6 models perform?

Stemming from the multi-scale interactions of various processes, long-term memory (LTM) has become a well-recognized property in the climate system. Whether a dynamic model can reproduce the observed LTM is a widely used criterion for model evaluation, especially regarding its ability in simulating natural variabilities. While many works have shown poor model skill in simulating the LTM of land surface air temperature (LSAT), it is not yet known whether CMIP6 models offer any improvement. In this study, the performances of 60 CMIP6 models in simulating the LTM characteristics in LSAT were evaluated. Results showed that most models reproduced the LTM in the global-mean LSAT, among which AWI-ESM-1-1-LR and E3SM-1-0 performed best. All 60 models reproduced the variation in LTM with latitude. CNRM-CM6-1 and HadGEM3-GC31-LL performed best in simulating the LTM of LSAT at the global scale. The multi-model mean (MMM) performed better than any single model. The biases of the MMM and CRUTEM5, and among the 60 models, were significant in the equatorial and coastal regions, which may be attributable to the simulation differences of the models in terms of their ocean–atmosphere coupling processes.摘要利用去趋势涨落分析 (DFA) 方法计算序列的长程记忆性 (LTM) , 以CRUTEM5数据集的结果作为观测参照, 评估了60个参与第六次国际耦合模式比较计划 (CMIP6) 的气候模式对地表气温LTM的再现能力. 结果表明: 大部分模式可以再现全球平均地表气温序列的LTM特征, 其中AWI-ESM-1-1-LR和E3SM-1-0的模拟效果最好; 60个模式均能模拟LTM随纬度带的变化; 综合来说, 全球水平上CNRM-CM6-1和HadGEM3-GC31-LL对地表气温LTM的模拟性能最好; 多模式平均相比单一模式模拟性能更好; 多模式平均与观测结果的偏差以及模式之间的模拟差异显著体现在赤道和沿海区域, 这种偏差可能源于模式对海气耦合过程的模拟差异.     

局部重力异常向上延拓的实用算法

针对局部重力异常向上延拓计算复杂、耗时长的问题,该文基于泊松积分离散化的基本原理,提出一种快速的局部格网重力异常向上延拓的实用算法;并结合中国东北和青藏高原地区大地水准面的重力异常格网数据,采用该延拓方法分别计算了空中10、50、100km处的重力异常,将其与等高度的EIGEN-6C4模型结果对比分析。实验结果表明:在顾及边界效应影响的情况下,相对于EIGEN-6C4模型,中国东北和青藏高原地区重力异常向上延拓的最大均方根误差分别优于1.5和3.5mGal;在保证精度可用的前提下,计算效率可以有大幅度提高,证明了该方法解算局部重力异常向上延拓的适用性。     

乌鲁木齐区域数值预报业务系统降水预报检验与评估分析

基于乌鲁木齐区域数值预报业务系统,运用Ts和Bias评分方法,对2012年9月1日—2015年8月31日逐日2个起报时次的逐6 h累积降水量的年与季节预报性能进行检验,并从空间上分析了2015年全疆站点逐6 h累积降水量在4个预报时段的评分特征。结果表明:(1)2个起报时次的降水评分相差较小,00 UTC起报略优于12 UTC起报,2015年系统改进了白天大量级降水的空报现象。(2)系统对晴雨预报较为准确,Bias接近1,空报、漏报率很小;随着降水阈值的升高,Ts评分减小,Bias变幅增大,空、漏报率也随之增加。系统对强降水过程以漏报为主。(3)系统的降水预报能力存在季节差异,夏季Ts评分最高,秋季次之,冬季最小;随时间模式对四季降水预报能力均有提高,降低了冬季大量级降水的漏报率和夏季大量级降水的空报率。(4)在新疆地区,08—14 BT(Beijing Time)、14—20 BT、20—次日02 BT空报站点数多于漏报,14—20 BT空报率最高;在02—08 BT整体呈漏报。(5)各站点整体来看,白天Ts评分高于夜间,山区及邻近地区评分高于平原地区;西天山评分略优于东天山,夜间晴雨预报有天山北坡漏报、南坡空报的趋势。     

基于MapGIS软件明码文件钻孔柱状图制作

通过实例简要说明了Excel软件、Map GIS软件明码文件及辅助软件MGT6在绘制钻孔柱状图中的应用.实例采用某矿区实际钻孔回次进尺数据,对数据进行整理、计算.利用Excel软件和Map GIS软件生成钻孔回次线明码文件后,进而绘制钻孔回次线,建立钻孔柱状图绘制模板,用Map GIS二次开发辅助软件MGT6进行回次数据输入.钻孔柱状图绘制模板建立后,进行其他钻孔柱状图绘制时可直接输入回次进尺而成图.     

How Well Do CMIP6 and CMIP5 Models Simulate the Climatological Seasonal Variations in Ocean Salinity?

This paper includes a comprehensive assessment of 40 models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5) and 33 models from the CMIP phase 6 (CMIP6) to determine the climatological and seasonal variation of ocean salinity from the surface to 2000 m. The general pattern of the ocean salinity climatology can be simulated by both the CMIP5 and CMIP6 models from the surface to 2000-m depth. However, this study shows an increased fresh bias in the surface and subsurface salinity in the CMIP6 multimodel mean, with a global average of ?0.44 g kg^?1 for the sea surface salinity (SSS) and ?0.26 g kg^?1 for the 0–1000-m averaged salinity (S1000) compared with the CMIP5 multimodel mean (?0.25 g kg^?1 for the SSS and ?0.07 g kg^?1 for the S1000). In terms of the seasonal variation, both CMIP6 and CMIP5 models show positive (negative) anomalies in the first (second) half of the year in the global average SSS and S1000. The model-simulated variation in SSS is consistent with the observations, but not for S1000, suggesting a substantial uncertainty in simulating and understanding the seasonal variation in subsurface salinity. The CMIP5 and CMIP6 models overestimate the magnitude of the seasonal variation of the SSS in the tropics in the region 20°S–20°N but underestimate the magnitude of the seasonal change in S1000 in the Atlantic and Indian oceans. These assessments show new features of the model errors in simulating ocean salinity and support further studies of the global hydrological cycle.     

IPCC AR6粮食系统的影响与适应的新认知和新趋势

解读政府间气候变化专门委员会(IPCC)第六次评估报告(AR6)粮食系统的影响与适应,对科学认识国际气候变化对农业影响学科前沿动态具有重要意义。最新发布的IPCC AR6在深化阐述粮食生产能力、种植布局、病虫害影响的基础上,高度确信人类活动导致的气候变暖对粮食系统产生了负面影响,论述了粮食运输及消费中的气候风险,解析了粮食生产-存储-运输-消费的全链条气候变化影响,延展了影响评估归因内容并丰富了农业环境影响等相关科学认识。对于粮食系统的适应能力,强调适应及减缓协同发展的气候恢复力发展路径,适应评估从适应能力、适应方式等理论逐步转向适应实施行动和成效评估,并注重适应行动的区域特异性和有效性。本次评估强调了气候变化对作物影响的检测和归因、关注了气候和农业环境变化复合影响、倡导基于生态系统的适应方案和技术,评估了现有适应技术的可行性和成效。报告内容对中国强化农业影响评估能力及把握国际学科动态具有参考价值。